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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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That is week 4. Might as well throw a dart.

I made the same mistake a few days ago , when I saw the 500 mb maps   I said  wow that looks warm , but this is all low level cold air , ( non of this is pacific air )

if you look at the surface temps under the 500 mb charts , they are colder  .

The OCT euro weeklies for NOV were above normal , and that turned out awful .If I had to take a guess the 1 st 2- 3 weeks IN Dec  are Normal at worst .( if not below ) .

As long as the WPO and EPO are NEG the cold the cold should win out .  Now if we can ever get blocking on the Atlantic side  then the cold isn't wasted , when systems climb the coast .

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That is week 4. Might as well throw a dart.

But we are already seeing signs of this in the operational ECM and its ensemble means in the first week of december..

post-342-0-63695300-1385652970_thumb.gif

 

post-342-0-94631500-1385652986_thumb.gif

 

PNA going negative strongly supports a trough into the west..

post-342-0-51953200-1385653072_thumb.gif

AO also positive strongly supports a warmer picture..

post-342-0-41641900-1385653131_thumb.gif

 

The EPO being negative would dump the coldest air into the western and midwest parts of the US

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I made the same mistake a few days ago , when I saw the 500 mb maps   I said  wow that looks warm , but this is all low level cold air , ( non of this is pacific air )

if you look at the surface temps under the 500 mb charts , they are colder  .

The OCT euro weeklies for NOV were above normal , and that turned out awful .If I had to take a guess the 1 st 2- 3 weeks IN Dec  are Normal at worst .( if not below ) .

As long as the WPO and EPO are NEG the cold the cold should win out .  Now if we can ever get blocking on the Atlantic side  then the cold isn't wasted , when systems climb the coast .

 

That's it. The -EPO ridge builds strong high pressure cells which drop south with low level cold air that pushes further south

than you would expect from just looking at the 500 mb SE Ridge position. The current day 11-15

forecast is a good example of this. 

 

 

 

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That's it. The -EPO ridge builds strong high pressure cells which drop south with low level cold air that pushes further south

than you would expect from just looking at the 500 mb SE Ridge position. The current day 11-15

forecast is a good example of this. 

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_T2ma5d_namer_3.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_mslpa5d_namer_3.png

Yeh brother I agree 100 percent  .On Tues I looked at 500 MB and said sh*t , Then Yesterday I said wait , look at that flow , its all NW . That dense air will push against the ridge

I`m not saying 94 , but all the guys yelling gradient have a point , cause the ridge is there but it never wins out and torches us  .

That  Polar flow " saves " the surface  .

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Yeh brother I agree 100 percent  .On Tues I looked at 500 MB and said sh*t , Then Yesterday I said wait , look at that flow , its all NW . That dense air will push against the ridge

I`m not saying 94 , but all the guys yelling gradient have a point , cause the ridge is there but it never wins out and torches us  .

That  Polar flow " saves " the surface  .

 

Yeah, we often end up with something like -1 to +1 with warm ups followed by cool downs balancing out the temps

in a -EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern. As long as the ridge near Alaska doesn't retrograde west, it's a very close to

normal temperature pattern here.

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Based on the GFS long range? If one goes by the GFS i would have had several inches of snow with this last rainstorm and instead i ended up with a trace of snow!

not just the GFS agrees on a cold stormy December - plus a better chance of frozen in mid December then November

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One can only hope. Not good for the time being however. Hope we don't get into the cutter, cold, cutter, cold type pattern

 

Without any Atlantic blocking showing up in the means, that's probably what we'll see. We can still get a stray moderate

snow event at some point in December like we saw on 12-19-08. But it's not a great snowstorm pattern like

years with big NAO and AO drops such as 2009 and especially 2010. 

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Without any Atlantic blocking showing up in the means, that's probably what we'll see. We can still get a stray moderate

snow event at some point in December like we saw on 12-19-08. But it's not a great snowstorm pattern like

years with big NAO and AO drops such as 2009 and especially 2010.

Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case

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Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case

 

We need to have a storm eject at the same time that an Arctic high is supplying cold air down into the area during a -EPO/+NAO.

 

12/19/08

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2008/12/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

 

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How so?

You obviously don't understand my point when I say this is a weather forum not a snow forum. I say that because most people here only post because of snow and snow only while I'm here for all kinds of weather.

I was kidding, I understand that there's a bias towards snow. It's just funny that you wrote that "if it won't snow it might as well torch" and "this isn't just a snow forum" in the same sentence. Besides, cold and dry is also weather;)
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In case anyone forget, the average climo temperatures are still in the mid to upper 40s for the first week of December. We will likely be below normal that week, and we might only have a day or two of above normal temperatures with the cutter. Hopefully the cutter allows the cold air to flow east like the 18z gfs implies, which could maybe setup a more wintry look later on. I'm not loving the pattern, but I can't ignore the cold air has definitely been around and with that there's always hope even without blocking. 

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