atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Week 4 from Mondays ECM was showing a pretty stealthy SE ridge and this would be mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 500za_week4_bg_na2.png Week 4 from Mondays ECM was showing a pretty stealthy SE ridge and this would be mid month That is week 4. Might as well throw a dart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That is week 4. Might as well throw a dart. I made the same mistake a few days ago , when I saw the 500 mb maps I said wow that looks warm , but this is all low level cold air , ( non of this is pacific air ) if you look at the surface temps under the 500 mb charts , they are colder . The OCT euro weeklies for NOV were above normal , and that turned out awful .If I had to take a guess the 1 st 2- 3 weeks IN Dec are Normal at worst .( if not below ) . As long as the WPO and EPO are NEG the cold the cold should win out . Now if we can ever get blocking on the Atlantic side then the cold isn't wasted , when systems climb the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That is week 4. Might as well throw a dart. But we are already seeing signs of this in the operational ECM and its ensemble means in the first week of december.. PNA going negative strongly supports a trough into the west.. AO also positive strongly supports a warmer picture.. The EPO being negative would dump the coldest air into the western and midwest parts of the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I made the same mistake a few days ago , when I saw the 500 mb maps I said wow that looks warm , but this is all low level cold air , ( non of this is pacific air ) if you look at the surface temps under the 500 mb charts , they are colder . The OCT euro weeklies for NOV were above normal , and that turned out awful .If I had to take a guess the 1 st 2- 3 weeks IN Dec are Normal at worst .( if not below ) . As long as the WPO and EPO are NEG the cold the cold should win out . Now if we can ever get blocking on the Atlantic side then the cold isn't wasted , when systems climb the coast . That's it. The -EPO ridge builds strong high pressure cells which drop south with low level cold air that pushes further south than you would expect from just looking at the 500 mb SE Ridge position. The current day 11-15 forecast is a good example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That's it. The -EPO ridge builds strong high pressure cells which drop south with low level cold air that pushes further south than you would expect from just looking at the 500 mb SE Ridge position. The current day 11-15 forecast is a good example of this. gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png gfs-ens_T2ma5d_namer_3.png gfs-ens_mslpa5d_namer_3.png Yeh brother I agree 100 percent .On Tues I looked at 500 MB and said sh*t , Then Yesterday I said wait , look at that flow , its all NW . That dense air will push against the ridge I`m not saying 94 , but all the guys yelling gradient have a point , cause the ridge is there but it never wins out and torches us . That Polar flow " saves " the surface . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Polar air vs pacific means we'll get colder air then we would normally expect, but it's not favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Yeh brother I agree 100 percent .On Tues I looked at 500 MB and said sh*t , Then Yesterday I said wait , look at that flow , its all NW . That dense air will push against the ridge I`m not saying 94 , but all the guys yelling gradient have a point , cause the ridge is there but it never wins out and torches us . That Polar flow " saves " the surface . Yeah, we often end up with something like -1 to +1 with warm ups followed by cool downs balancing out the temps in a -EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern. As long as the ridge near Alaska doesn't retrograde west, it's a very close to normal temperature pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 We could see low-level cold air drainage, with the strong SE ridge. But I think storms will be more rain/ice vs snow for our area. Until we see some high-latitude blocking on Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Fun days ahead in the second week of December http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Fun days ahead in the second week of December http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Based on the GFS long range? If one goes by the GFS i would have had several inches of snow with this last rainstorm and instead i ended up with a trace of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Based on the GFS long range? If one goes by the GFS i would have had several inches of snow with this last rainstorm and instead i ended up with a trace of snow! not just the GFS agrees on a cold stormy December - plus a better chance of frozen in mid December then November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Big cutter on euro next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Big cutter on euro next weekend Hopefully that changes the pattern a bit, until then I think low expectations are called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Hopefully that changes the pattern a bit, until then I think low expectations are called for. One can only hope. Not good for the time being however. Hope we don't get into the cutter, cold, cutter, cold type pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 One can only hope. Not good for the time being however. Hope we don't get into the cutter, cold, cutter, cold type pattern Without any Atlantic blocking showing up in the means, that's probably what we'll see. We can still get a stray moderate snow event at some point in December like we saw on 12-19-08. But it's not a great snowstorm pattern like years with big NAO and AO drops such as 2009 and especially 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Without any Atlantic blocking showing up in the means, that's probably what we'll see. We can still get a stray moderate snow event at some point in December like we saw on 12-19-08. But it's not a great snowstorm pattern like years with big NAO and AO drops such as 2009 and especially 2010. Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case We need to have a storm eject at the same time that an Arctic high is supplying cold air down into the area during a -EPO/+NAO. 12/19/08 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2008/12/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case I cringe when I read that on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Yup. IMO it's worse to go cutter, cold, cutter, cold etc. I'd rather it just be warmer if that's going to be the case I agree. Let it torch all winter if there's going to be no snow. BTW, this a weather forum, not a snow forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 5 days Euro should b getting more attention. Close call of coast but NNJ lower Hudson Valley central CT looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I agree. Let it torch all winter if there's going to be no snow. BTW, this a weather forum, not a snow forum. lol, this entire post is so hypocritical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 lol, this entire post is so hypocritical How so? You obviously don't understand my point when I say this is a weather forum not a snow forum. I say that because most people here only post because of snow and snow only while I'm here for all kinds of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I agree. Let it torch all winter if there's going to be no snow. BTW, this a weather forum, not a snow forum. I know it's a weather forum. The majority in here want to here about snow. I was simply stating if we don't get snow, I don't enjoy cold with no reward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Sleet can be fun ( ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 How so? You obviously don't understand my point when I say this is a weather forum not a snow forum. I say that because most people here only post because of snow and snow only while I'm here for all kinds of weather. I was kidding, I understand that there's a bias towards snow. It's just funny that you wrote that "if it won't snow it might as well torch" and "this isn't just a snow forum" in the same sentence. Besides, cold and dry is also weather;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 In case anyone forget, the average climo temperatures are still in the mid to upper 40s for the first week of December. We will likely be below normal that week, and we might only have a day or two of above normal temperatures with the cutter. Hopefully the cutter allows the cold air to flow east like the 18z gfs implies, which could maybe setup a more wintry look later on. I'm not loving the pattern, but I can't ignore the cold air has definitely been around and with that there's always hope even without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Nice calm cold Thanksgiving night...26 degrees here with some clouds moving in so probobly wont drop much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Possible same old error at 120 hrs ( Tues ) on the GFS takes the center due EAST off the Mid Atlantic Coast . The Euro is to the BM so the coast is a toss up to a cold rain but just inland its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 long range fantasy or a real possibility in this pattern ? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=11&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=18&fhour=360¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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