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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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Honestly I think everyone should be thankful we have the chance to get nickel and dimed under a cold regime given the horrendous looking signals overall from this past autumn. Without the conducive EPO signal this would've been a classic torch repeat w/ the raging +AO/NAO. Can't get greedy and expect a big dog every single winter. Who knows if it's going to happen this winter but if it doesn't, I'd be satisfied with light to moderate events and a snowpack.

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There is only so much blocking that can develop at the higher latitudes. Something eventually has to give; you rarely get a raging -EPO with a raging -NAO. When the two do combine, you get epic situations...ie early January 1996 with the Blizzard of 1996 followed by a very close call for a second huge snowstorm (but still, accumulating snow in the (-95 nonetheless). It is looking like we will be gradually entering a -NAO regime with a near neutral EPO.

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There is only so much blocking that can develop at the higher latitudes. Something eventually has to give; you rarely get a raging -EPO with a raging -NAO. When the two do combine, you get epic situations...ie early January 1996 with the Blizzard of 1996 followed by a very close call for a second huge snowstorm (but still, accumulating snow in the (-95 nonetheless). It is looking like we will be gradually entering a -NAO regime with a near neutral EPO.

 

I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way?  Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip?

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I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way? Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip?

I dont think he means a dominant -NAO regime, more like better chances of what looks like blocking over/ in the vicinity over greenland, hudson bay etc. the -EPO has to get some support dont know if its going to be tons though from the NAO/AO

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The President's day blizzard of February 2003 featured no NAO blocking w/ low heights to our north in Canada. The low heights SE of Newfoundland however allowed for confluence across the northern tier of the USA

 

 

x5nyvm.gif

 

That's an example of a strong east based block reaching Eastern Greenland and holding the 50/50 and Arctic high

over SE Canada in place.

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I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way? Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip?

The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so.

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The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so.

 

From your keyboard to God's ears!  Hopefully not too negative.  There is nothing worse than a blizzard happening 300 miles off shore after being on the east side of the low all December. 

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The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so.

Actually the PV is starting to split some, but I see no indication of a -NAO on any of the long range guidance just yet. The cold pattern is reloading thanks to the -EPO.

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need that ridge out west to take its vitamins.

You really want the SE ridge to flex a bit and hold that cold front just offshore  and grab some moisture as energy comes  NNE

Not impossible , but I am not inclined to buy that yet .

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Can you imagine that jan 96 cutter was further east! I really hope we get some blocking soon. These type winters 93/94 07/08 are not coastal friendly or mid Atlantic for that matter. Just look at Reagan! 1.5 wow that's terrible. Being on the west based blocking!

 

I guess some weaker east based blocking is better than nothing if the long range is correct. Maybe we could

swing some clipper threats with colder than normal temps to start out January.

 

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Sooooo close to a nice little snowstorm for christmas. A little more amplification with the cold air in place and we'd have our white christmas to make up for the grinch storm

its pos tilted trough ,  " and the cold catches it from behind . "   The Euro has non of this

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It looks almost identical to the GGEM.

Both are progressive but both throw back a little frozen precip for the immediate coast of NYC/CT and LI.

Lke effect streamer or 2 make it all the way to the coast xmas eve nite .  GFS has it too .  

lil mood snow .

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I am beginning to think there will b some snow in the air xmas eve day around here. I like the trends of the models. The Canadian hasn't lost the idea. Both the gfs and the Euro wana get some snow showers off the lakes all the way to coast but the trend has gone to something here If u just look at the 500 mb pattern it looks it should b snowing here.

The moisture field looks awful but imo theres a chance this comes west over the next 3 days. That's the hope

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