Isotherm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Honestly I think everyone should be thankful we have the chance to get nickel and dimed under a cold regime given the horrendous looking signals overall from this past autumn. Without the conducive EPO signal this would've been a classic torch repeat w/ the raging +AO/NAO. Can't get greedy and expect a big dog every single winter. Who knows if it's going to happen this winter but if it doesn't, I'd be satisfied with light to moderate events and a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The President's day blizzard of February 2003 featured no NAO blocking w/ low heights to our north in Canada. The low heights SE of Newfoundland however allowed for confluence across the northern tier of the USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 There is only so much blocking that can develop at the higher latitudes. Something eventually has to give; you rarely get a raging -EPO with a raging -NAO. When the two do combine, you get epic situations...ie early January 1996 with the Blizzard of 1996 followed by a very close call for a second huge snowstorm (but still, accumulating snow in the (-95 nonetheless). It is looking like we will be gradually entering a -NAO regime with a near neutral EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 There is only so much blocking that can develop at the higher latitudes. Something eventually has to give; you rarely get a raging -EPO with a raging -NAO. When the two do combine, you get epic situations...ie early January 1996 with the Blizzard of 1996 followed by a very close call for a second huge snowstorm (but still, accumulating snow in the (-95 nonetheless). It is looking like we will be gradually entering a -NAO regime with a near neutral EPO. I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way? Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way? Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip? I dont think he means a dominant -NAO regime, more like better chances of what looks like blocking over/ in the vicinity over greenland, hudson bay etc. the -EPO has to get some support dont know if its going to be tons though from the NAO/AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z Nam has a very interesting look to it at 84 hours FWIW as the front gets hung up off the east coast and several waves develop down south and move up it - something to keep an eye on as colder air also filters in http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122012/namconus_reflectivity_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The President's day blizzard of February 2003 featured no NAO blocking w/ low heights to our north in Canada. The low heights SE of Newfoundland however allowed for confluence across the northern tier of the USA That's an example of a strong east based block reaching Eastern Greenland and holding the 50/50 and Arctic high over SE Canada in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I am not questioning what you are saying about gradually entering a -NAO regime, but can you share with us why you feel that way? Is there something going on right now in the higher latitudes that will result in a flip? The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so. From your keyboard to God's ears! Hopefully not too negative. There is nothing worse than a blizzard happening 300 miles off shore after being on the east side of the low all December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Snow shower possible Christmas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The Polar Vortex being forced south will cause the NAO to go negative which it's staring to do so. Actually the PV is starting to split some, but I see no indication of a -NAO on any of the long range guidance just yet. The cold pattern is reloading thanks to the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 need that ridge out west to take its vitamins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 need that ridge out west to take its vitamins. You really want the SE ridge to flex a bit and hold that cold front just offshore and grab some moisture as energy comes NNE Not impossible , but I am not inclined to buy that yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Actually the PV is starting to split some, but I see no indication of a -NAO on any of the long range guidance just yet. The cold pattern is reloading thanks to the -EPO. Yes a part if it slides east. Only when the PV drops into the Hudson Bay will the NAO go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Can you imagine that jan 96 cutter was further east! I really hope we get some blocking soon. These type winters 93/94 07/08 are not coastal friendly or mid Atlantic for that matter. Just look at Reagan! 1.5 wow that's terrible. Being on the west based blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 something's wrong with kewr's temp sensor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Can you imagine that jan 96 cutter was further east! I really hope we get some blocking soon. These type winters 93/94 07/08 are not coastal friendly or mid Atlantic for that matter. Just look at Reagan! 1.5 wow that's terrible. Being on the west based blocking! I guess some weaker east based blocking is better than nothing if the long range is correct. Maybe we could swing some clipper threats with colder than normal temps to start out January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 something's wrong with kewr's temp sensor Fork , can we get the Ridge to buldge Tues AM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Sooooo close to a nice little snowstorm for christmas. A little more amplification with the cold air in place and we'd have our white christmas to make up for the grinch storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Sooooo close to a nice little snowstorm for christmas. A little more amplification with the cold air in place and we'd have our white christmas to make up for the grinch storm its pos tilted trough , " and the cold catches it from behind . " The Euro has non of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 its pos tilted trough , " and the cold catches it from behind . " The Euro has non of this 12z Euro is very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z Euro is very close. Yeh at hour 90 - but its progressive , need it to get hung up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Most of the GFS ensembles at 90-96 are notably closer than the Op is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeh at hour 90 - but its progressive , need it to get hung up It looks almost identical to the GGEM. Both are progressive but both throw back a little frozen precip for the immediate coast of NYC/CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeh at hour 90 - but its progressive , need it to get hung up Its getting there little by little. Hey what do you know?! Another thread the needle situation! the grinch storm holds the cards in this one in regards to where it goes and does i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It looks almost identical to the GGEM. Both are progressive but both throw back a little frozen precip for the immediate coast of NYC/CT and LI. Lke effect streamer or 2 make it all the way to the coast xmas eve nite . GFS has it too . lil mood snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I am beginning to think there will b some snow in the air xmas eve day around here. I like the trends of the models. The Canadian hasn't lost the idea. Both the gfs and the Euro wana get some snow showers off the lakes all the way to coast but the trend has gone to something here If u just look at the 500 mb pattern it looks it should b snowing here. The moisture field looks awful but imo theres a chance this comes west over the next 3 days. That's the hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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