December Discussion Thread

[REDMK6GLI]

There have been times where the -NAO was severely negative but the pacific was so bad, there was no cold air in Canada. I rather take my chances with a pattern like we've seen this year. The -EPO has delivered the PV on our side of the globe and if looks to be going no where anytime soon. I personally think we could get a major east coast storm if the PV drops further south and phases with any southern stream system. All of this can be done without a -NAO.

 

very good point the pattern is there in bits if you will, we just need it to work in tandem to get the storms like PB GFI said earlier cold will be here and the storms will come. but coastal areas like me regardless unless theres 1040+ banana high to the north P-type issues may plague me the entire winter

[SnowGoose69]

There have been times where the -NAO was severely negative but the pacific was so bad, there was no cold air in Canada. I rather take my chances with a pattern like we've seen this year. The -EPO has delivered the PV on our side of the globe and if looks to be going no where anytime soon. I personally think we could get a major east coast storm if the PV drops further south and phases with any southern stream system. All of this can be done without a -NAO.

 

A -NAO when the PV is on your side of the globe can be detrimental because it ultimately forces the PV south and every storm is a MA or Southern US storm or its sheared out, I'm not sure we'd have seen any snow yet this winter if we had a -NAO because that ridge has been so darn strong out west that even without it the PV has been fairly far south, just imagine with a strong west based NAO where it would have been.  The ridge was not quite this massive in the 95-96 winter hence the -NAO helped us out alot, in 03-04 however and 02-03 it hurt us at times because that ridge was just immovable out over the GOA and Western US for the most part both winters....a couple of the storms in 02-03 occurred during a +NAO or when the NAO was transitioning to positive.

[REDMK6GLI]

A -NAO when the PV is on your side of the globe can be detrimental because it ultimately forces the PV south and every storm is a MA or Southern US storm or its sheared out, I'm not sure we'd have seen any snow yet this winter if we had a -NAO because that ridge has been so darn strong out west that even without it the PV has been fairly far south, just imagine with a strong west based NAO where it would have been.  The ridge was not quite this massive in the 95-96 winter hence the -NAO helped us out alot, in 03-04 however and 02-03 it hurt us at times because that ridge was just immovable out over the GOA and Western US for the most part both winters....a couple of the storms in 02-03 occurred during a +NAO or when the NAO was transitioning to positive.

 

in essence what your saying is that our current pattern is not bad at all for producing east coast snow storms? the cold is there and if the PV interacts it may not cause storms to be sheared apart

[SnowGoose69]

in essence what your saying is that our current pattern is not bad at all for producing east coast snow storms? the cold is there and if the PV interacts it may not cause storms to be sheared apart

 

We may not get a KU event but as long as the southern stream remains active and there is a big ridge out west we have a chance.

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM

Worcester: 18.6"

Allentown: 13.1"

Hartford: 12.4"

Boston: 11.4"

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"

Newark Airport: 9.4"

NYC Central Park: 8.6"

NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"

Providence: 7.1"

NYC JFK: 6.9"

Islip, NY: 6.7"

Washington Dulles: 4.7"

Atlantic City: 3.3"

Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"

Washington National: 1.5"

[user13]

Non of the GFS members had much of anything this run

[uncle W]

if we get storms like we just saw in early December a month later they could very well have more snow and ice with colder temperatures...it's not a ku set up but it's warm moist air over riding low level arctic air...All these snowfalls add up...maybe with better blocking later in the winter we could see a big snow...I'm afraid of the very plus ao we have now...it could rear its ugly head again later on down the road...if it does and the epo goes positive winter could end on a mild note...it can go negative as it did in 1951-52 and 1978-79...until it does it's just wishfull thinking...

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall / Long Island
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 pm
 
Baiting Hollow: 8.4"
Smithtown: 7.6"
Centerport: 7.6"
Port Jefferson: 7.2"
Islip / MacArthur Airport: 6.7"
Mt. Sinai: 6.2"
BNL / Upton: 4.8"

[REDMK6GLI]

We may not get a KU event but as long as the southern stream remains active and there is a big ridge out west we have a chance.

 

all we can ask for and the pattern could be ALOT worse this year.

[Neblizzard]

A -NAO when the PV is on your side of the globe can be detrimental because it ultimately forces the PV south and every storm is a MA or Southern US storm or its sheared out, I'm not sure we'd have seen any snow yet this winter if we had a -NAO because that ridge has been so darn strong out west that even without it the PV has been fairly far south, just imagine with a strong west based NAO where it would have been. The ridge was not quite this massive in the 95-96 winter hence the -NAO helped us out alot, in 03-04 however and 02-03 it hurt us at times because that ridge was just immovable out over the GOA and Western US for the most part both winters....a couple of the storms in 02-03 occurred during a +NAO or when the NAO was transitioning to positive.

Excellent points Snoowgoose. I think the point I'm trying to make is a -NAO is not an absolute necessity to get a big east coast storm. How about the "thread in the needle" blockbuster last year. There was virtually no blocking in the at lair but just enough amplitude in the pattern courtesy of higher heights out west. The Pacific can do it on it's own and I like the pattern going forward. The PNA spike at fhe end of the month could very well lead to a big east coast storm especially with an active southern jet.

[REDMK6GLI]

Excellent points Snoowgoose. I think the point I'm trying to make is a -NAO is not an absolute necessity to get a big east coast storm. How about the "thread in the needle" blockbuster last year. There was virtually no blocking in the at lair but just enough amplitude in the pattern courtesy of higher heights out west. The Pacific can do it on it's own and I like the pattern going forward. The PNA spike at fhe end of the month could very well lead to a big east coast storm especially with an active southern jet.

 

with an active southern jet to tap copious amounts of moisture all we really need is some ridging out west, cold air source ala cold high in southeast Canada, shortwave to dig just enough to the east coast and BOOM we got a snowstorm

[White Gorilla]

Excellent points Snoowgoose. I think the point I'm trying to make is a -NAO is not an absolute necessity to get a big east coast storm. How about the "thread in the needle" blockbuster last year. There was virtually no blocking in the at lair but just enough amplitude in the pattern courtesy of higher heights out west. The Pacific can do it on it's own and I like the pattern going forward. The PNA spike at fhe end of the month could very well lead to a big east coast storm especially with an active southern jet.

BIG LIKE from me!

[White Gorilla]

all we can ask for and the pattern could be ALOT worse this year.

Yes, the horrible Decembers of 1998, 2001, 2011 come to mind.

[uncle W]

so far this year has past 2011-12 for snow depth...

days with=trace/1"/4"/10" consecutive days trace/1"/4"/10"...

year.............T....1"....4"........T....1"....4"....

2013-14.......14...8....2.........6....6.....1

2011-12.......14...5....1.........3....3.....1......

2007-08.......30...8....4.........4....4.....4

2001-02.......22...3....0.........4....3.....0

1997-98.......27...2....1.........3....2.....1

1996-97.......35...8....0.........4....2.....0

1988-89.......23...7....2.........4....3.....2

1972-73.......30...3....0.........3....2.....0

1952-53.......38...8....1.........7....3.....1

1949-50.......29...9....1.........3....3.....0

[green tube]

Seasonal Snowfall / Long Island

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 pm

 

Baiting Hollow: 8.4"

Smithtown: 7.6"

Centerport: 7.6"

Port Jefferson: 7.2"

Islip / MacArthur Airport: 6.7"

Mt. Sinai: 6.2"

BNL / Upton: 4.8"

 

decembers have been good in the 21st century.  while the historical december ave in my neck of the woods in NJ is 4.6"

since winter 2002, there have been 5 decembers with at least 10 inches... and another with 9.2" and this current one with 9.4"

[Snowshack]

Seasonal Snowfall

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM

Worcester: 18.6"

Allentown: 13.1"

Hartford: 12.4"

Boston: 11.4"

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"

Newark Airport: 9.4"

NYC Central Park: 8.6"

NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"

Providence: 7.1"

NYC JFK: 6.9"

Islip, NY: 6.7"

Washington Dulles: 4.7"

Atlantic City: 3.3"

Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"

Washington National: 1.5"

All behaving like they should on that list except Philly. 

[Isotherm]

The strong similarities to the 2008 analog both at 500mb and the surface continue, and I think there's a possibility we follow its progression into January.

 

 

December 1st-17th of 2008, 500mb, northern hemispheric viewpoint:

 

 

 

 

December 1st-17th of 2013, 500mb, northern hemispheric viewpoint:

 

 

 

2008 December USA temperature departures -- notice the warmth near New Mexico, SE US, and expansive cold with the strongest negative anomalies in the Mid-west

 

 

 

December 2013 thus far is very similar, and the Northeast will finish warmer than this, probably not far from normal like 2008.

 

 

[Isotherm]

The Dec-Jan combined 500mb period for 2008-2009. The mean trough shifted further east for January with impressive cold via a -EPO pattern. The NAO was positive, AO near neutral.

 

 

[Isotherm]

It's going to be very difficult to get the AO negative for the next several weeks with a very cold stratosphere and strong vortex. No signs yet of that breaking down. The NAO should also remain stable positive. But as we've seen, the NPAC driven pattern is quite favorable for arctic cold directed into the CONUS, and the maintenance of the -EPO will keep the torch periods short in duration. If the higher heights can spill east into the PNA region, January 2014 could feature a similar overall look to January 2009. I never thought the AO or NAO had much of a chance to run negative this winter, at least until late Jan or February when we potentially get some perturbation of the vortex via a more conducive declining QBO.

[doncat]

It's going to be very difficult to get the AO negative for the next several weeks with a very cold stratosphere and strong vortex. No signs yet of that breaking down. The NAO should also remain stable positive. But as we've seen, the NPAC driven pattern is quite favorable for arctic cold directed into the CONUS, and the maintenance of the -EPO will keep the torch periods short in duration. If the higher heights can spill east into the PNA region, January 2014 could feature a similar overall look to January 2009. I never thought the AO or NAO had much of a chance to run negative this winter, at least until late Jan or February when we potentially get some perturbation of the vortex via a more conducive declining QBO.

I'll take that... jan 2009 here averaged 26.6 degrees with a low temp of 4 along with 8.6 inches of snow. If we can get a few inches more of snow it would be a perfect winter month for me.

[Absolute Humidity]

FWIW 0Z GGEM still has that pre Christmas frontal low, now at 108. It's not nearly as impressive as it was at 12Z but it's there and looks like a couple of inches, 5mm LE + area wide. Looks like a coastal scraper now.

[REDMK6GLI]

6z GFS run shows the 24/25th storm sheared out and that organized barely missing us with atleast light precip. Ill take it at this range if it means a N&W trend possibly. What happens with the grinch storm is going to have ramifications with this and the new years eve storm

[REDMK6GLI]

However at 180hrs (far out i know) there looks be some kinking in the flow if you will in the central us. That may be our new years eves storm in its infancy

[bluewave]

We may not get a KU event but as long as the southern stream remains active and there is a big ridge out west we have a chance.

 

Yeah, we can get moderate events without much help from the AO and NAO like 2-22-08. But for KU events you

need to establish intervals of NAO and AO blocking around the time of the storm.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yeah, we can get moderate events without much help from the AO and NAO like 2-22-08. But for KU events you

need to establish intervals of NAO and AO blocking around the time of the storm.

I think you'd need that for the big dog KU's. no reason why we cant get low-medium rated one as long as the overall coverage is expansive enough. This pattern i think has the POTENTIAL to produce a noteworthy storm or two. Reading my cases in the northeast snowstorm book a few of storms accumulation wise werent that impressive but the coverage/population affected made up for the lack of intensity

[bluewave]

I think you'd need that for the big dog KU's. no reason why we cant get low-medium rated one as long as the overall coverage is expansive enough. This pattern i think has the POTENTIAL to produce a noteworthy storm or two. Reading my cases in the northeast snowstorm book a few of storms accumulation wise werent that impressive but the coverage/population affected made up for the lack of intensity

 

Even for moderate storms in NYC and Long Island  we generally need some degree of blocking to have a better chance.

On rare occasions like 2-22-08 we can thread the needle without help form the AO or NAO. The bigger

storm potential usually occurs with a +EPO, rather than the -EPO pattern that we have been seeing.

 

15 moderate event composite NYC Long Island

 

 

15 KU composite

 

[NEXtreme]

Interestly, Joe B is saying this morning that the models are showing a pattern similar to the January of 1994.

[REDMK6GLI]

Even for moderate storms in NYC and Long Island we generally need some degree of blocking to have a better chance.

On rare occasions like 2-22-08 we can thread the needle without help form the AO or NAO. The bigger

storm potential usually occurs with a +EPO, rather than the -EPO pattern that we have been seeing.

15 moderate event composite NYC Long Island

615.gif

15 KU composite

1512.gif

I digress in that case, but i cant see any reason to not have any transient blocking at times during the rest of the winter. We have the cold air given to us by the dominant -EPO, were going to see some better ridging in the pacific +PNA. If they're can be some blocking even weak and preferably west based we can possibly pull a rabbit out of the hat. We just all right now should be thanking mother nature it hasnt given us a stinker of a winter...thus far

[PB GFI]

Interestly, Joe B is saying this morning that the models are showing a pattern similar to the January of 1994.

I said yesterday the models had a 93 94 look split flow Pos pna.gets the Cold here but the first guys on this were the New England guys 3 weeks ago

You would always want blocking but u may have to eek out several small events in an overall cold pattern.

Just get the trough in the east first worry about the details later

[jm1220]

I think you'd need that for the big dog KU's. no reason why we cant get low-medium rated one as long as the overall coverage is expansive enough. This pattern i think has the POTENTIAL to produce a noteworthy storm or two. Reading my cases in the northeast snowstorm book a few of storms accumulation wise werent that impressive but the coverage/population affected made up for the lack of intensity

As Bluewave showed, it's very difficult to get any kind of notable event here without high heights over Greenland or Baffin Bay. I think the maximum an event can deliver here without one is a 4-6" type event that probably goes to rain at the end. Maybe we could luck out with an anafront event or very luckily timed miller B. But my hopes aren't raised for any kind of significant event for the coast until the low heights up there are gone. We could nickel-and-dime though under a favorable EPO.