dbc Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At 120 hours only about 3 of the 12 GFS members were a hit with a couple more slightly closer than the Op run was...that said I think this is a legitimate threat to be a storm because most likely whats going on now is the GFS' cold bias is coming into play and as a result is slamming the SE ridge down and the thermal gradient too far off the coast too quick. The Euro and GEM idea of being less aggressive pushing the boundary out to sea and flattening the SE ridge is probably more accurate. I just think the odds of this being a snow event for the coast are relatively low.....the best thing that can happen is the initial system for the 22nd-23rd really blows up as it gets up into ERN Canada and puts a bit of a negative tilt to the entire East Coast trof allowing the 2nd wave to be slower coming up the coast and take a more NNW track as it gets off SNE which could cause a rain over to snow event. This. Hope it happens. Rain to snow is a fun type of event especially if it goes heavy right away and the temps plummet quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like the CMC even starts as a bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Im in a BAD position for the christmas storm with no blocking lol. Coastal plain FTL! It'll be grinch storm part II for me, i know its a week out still just making fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I agree somewhat. It seems that there are some winters where it will snow along the I-95 even with low probabilities. I highly suspect that this is one of those winters. At 120 hours only about 3 of the 12 GFS members were a hit with a couple more slightly closer than the Op run was...that said I think this is a legitimate threat to be a storm because most likely whats going on now is the GFS' cold bias is coming into play and as a result is slamming the SE ridge down and the thermal gradient too far off the coast too quick. The Euro and GEM idea of being less aggressive pushing the boundary out to sea and flattening the SE ridge is probably more accurate. I just think the odds of this being a snow event for the coast are relatively low.....the best thing that can happen is the initial system for the 22nd-23rd really blows up as it gets up into ERN Canada and puts a bit of a negative tilt to the entire East Coast trof allowing the 2nd wave to be slower coming up the coast and take a more NNW track as it gets off SNE which could cause a rain over to snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like the CMC even starts as a bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Im in a BAD position for the christmas storm with no blocking lol. Coastal plain FTL! It'll be grinch storm part II for me, i know its a week out still just making fun The 12z GGEM verbatim is like 12 or so hours of light snow followed by CCB development for another 24 or so hours. Almost everyone does really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Are you sure about temps? It's an anafront situation and I doubt temps would be an issue. Since it's not too far out, I am discussing temps. Yes it's silly at this range but the surface freezing line is displaced well NW. It would likely be rain even though 850's are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z GGEM verbatim is like 12 or so hours of light snow followed by CCB development for another 24 or so hours. Almost everyone does really well. That's nuts. With little to no blocking that kind of duration would basically be a miracle. 'Tis the season I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That's nuts. With little to no blocking that kind of duration would basically be a miracle. 'Tis the season I guess lol.a good way to get snow in a crappy pattern is to have energy tailing a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 That's nuts. With little to no blocking that kind of duration would basically be a miracle. 'Tis the season I guess lol. Not really, it's not one consolidated area of low pressure. We get this setup sometimes in the summer where we get sandwiched between high pressure over the lakes and the SE ridge. As this happens we end up with a stationary front along the coast with multiple waves of low pressure developing and riding northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z GFS has a weakening storm complex approaching the area late Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Not really, it's not one consolidated area of low pressure. We get this setup sometimes in the summer where we get sandwiched between high pressure over the lakes and the SE ridge. As this happens we end up with a stationary front along the coast with multiple waves of low pressure developing and riding northeastward. wasn't this kind of like 2003? it was overrunning that gave everyone tons of snow ( obviously not as severe ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 18z GFS doesn't have much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 wasn't this kind of like 2003? it was overrunning that gave everyone tons of snow ( obviously not as severe ) PDII as most people call it had strong blocking with high pressure locked in over New England. It was a slow moving miller B with tons and tons of over running. Not that dissimilar from the last weekends event, minus the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 a good way to get snow in a crappy pattern is to have energy tailing a cold front Not really, it's not one consolidated area of low pressure. We get this setup sometimes in the summer where we get sandwiched between high pressure over the lakes and the SE ridge. As this happens we end up with a stationary front along the coast with multiple waves of low pressure developing and riding northeastward. Makes sense. Hopefully it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I am not going to be excited about this threat till Monday, been burnt enough this year with rain and taint with the past two storms :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 18z GFS doesn't have much of anything. lets see what the members show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I believe the next snow will fall in Manhattan on Feb 14. That's my forecast given the interstellar planetary teleconnections and I'm sticking with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 PDII as most people call it had strong blocking with high pressure locked in over New England. It was a slow moving miller B with tons and tons of over running. Not that dissimilar from the last weekends event, minus the blocking. Actually Pd2 had an east based -NAO but there was a 50/50 low present. The pattern in the pacific was just perfect (massive +PNA) basically all winter long. Throw in the subtropical jet from El Niño and we had quite a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 PDII as most people call it had strong blocking with high pressure locked in over New England. It was a slow moving miller B with tons and tons of over running. Not that dissimilar from the last weekends event, minus the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 PDII as most people call it had strong blocking with high pressure locked in over New England. It was a slow moving miller B with tons and tons of over running. Not that dissimilar from the last weekends event, minus the blocking. it was nothing like last weeks storm…please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Models are hinting at heights building over the pole from the Russian Arctic and linking up with the -EPO ridge by the first week of January. The NAO and AO still not looking great, but it would mean that the first week of January could feature below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Models are hinting at heights building over the pole from the Russian Arctic and linking up with the -EPO ridge by the first week of January. The NAO and AO still not looking great, but it would mean that the first week of January could feature below normal temperatures. gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_2.png gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_3.png Trough east of Hawaii , promotes POS Pna. The cold will come. I don't care about blocking in a split flow pattern with so much direct discharge of arctic air. I will take my chances on precip types. Blocking leads to suppression. Southern ridges with cold northwesterly Flow is underrated 93 94. Once past Monday. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Trough east of Hawaii , promotes POS Pna. The cold will come. I don't care about blocking in a split flow pattern with so much direct discharge of arctic air. I will take my chances on precip types. Blocking leads to suppression. Southern ridges with cold northwesterly Flow is underrated 93 94. Once past Monday. Game on. Initially, it looks like a cold clipper pattern. But I would like to see a little more from the Atlantic side first before we can graduate form these nickel and dime snow events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Trough east of Hawaii , promotes POS Pna. The cold will come. I don't care about blocking in a split flow pattern with so much direct discharge of arctic air. I will take my chances on precip types. Blocking leads to suppression. Southern ridges with cold northwesterly Flow is underrated 93 94. Once past Monday. Game on. This. Keep the cold coming, good things will happen (if you like snow). I think NAO is somewhat overated, even when it is favorable you still need the pacific to cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This. Keep the cold coming, good things will happen (if you like snow). I think NAO is somewhat overated, even when it is favorable you still need the pacific to cooperate this is VERY true! ive seen -NAO deliver nothing and transient 50/50's doing more work sometimes. guess it boils down to the timing with whats on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 it was nothing like last weeks storm…please Why must you attack everyone one of my posts. If you don't agree just ignore it. Because its wrong information and that should not be tolerated last time I checked you're not a staff member and have no right to say anything. guys i didn't mean to start chest pounding contest. just merely stating a comparison but nowhere near the severity as 03' as i thought it was an overrunning event over a miller B. my apologies if i ruffled someones jimmie's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Take your kiddie antics elsewhere. You are wrong and Allsnow has every right to correct you. Thank you! Im sorry if i got snippy at you the other day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 wonder when a Christmas time snowstorm thread could be started if it actually comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 this is VERY true! ive seen -NAO deliver nothing and transient 50/50's doing more work sometimes. guess it boils down to the timing with whats on the table There have been times where the -NAO was severely negative but the pacific was so bad, there was no cold air in Canada. I rather take my chances with a pattern like we've seen this year. The -EPO has delivered the PV on our side of the globe and if looks to be going no where anytime soon. I personally think we could get a major east coast storm if the PV drops further south and phases with any southern stream system. All of this can be done without a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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