bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I haven't delved into it too much but I wonder what factors are causing the lack of blocking in the Atlantic? Does the -epo trump what we see downstrean in the Atlantic? Is it the enso state? Etc... That's an interesting question. The only thing that we do know is the the EPO/AO/NAO dramatically flipped phases from 2012 to 2013 especially after last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That's an interesting question. The only thing that we do know is the the EPO/AO/NAO dramatically flipped phases from 2012 to 2013 especially after last March. 12.gif 13.gif That is one hell of a flip and it looks solid that +NAO, its made a home over greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I haven't delved into it too much but I wonder what factors are causing the lack of blocking in the Atlantic? Does the -epo trump what we see downstrean in the Atlantic? Is it the enso state? Etc... You want to see a warm cold warm tripole in the sea surface anomalies from north to south in the Atlantic, right now it's cold warm cold...if we really are seeing a shift in the AMO we may see a predominantly positive NAO the next 10-15 years much as we saw in the 70s and 80s although I doubt it would be THAT consistently positive because the previous cold AMO period in the 1910s to 1930s didn't see the NAO average that positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That is one hell of a flip and it looks solid that +NAO, its made a home over greenland We also had the very odd lack of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic this summer with the pattern change. Excerpt: "We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W. ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air, stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico." http://typhoon.atmos...013/nov2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Well typically late january/february is when the big snowstorms seems to be more common but like you said with no blocking its pretty much a pipe dream. Its incredible how poor the blocking has been pretty much the past several months. NE/NNE and N&W of the tristate kind of winter as of now There has been accumulating snow 4, and in some cases, 5 times, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z GFS brings some moderate rain to the region on Sunday night while the 12z NAM is basically just a widely scattered shower or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm kind of surprised by the lack of rain with the front this weekend, almost thought there could've been convective potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm kind of surprised by the lack of rain with the front this weekend, almost thought there could've been convective potential. The SE ridge is just too strong. Keeping the storm track to our north and west. It's better off that way though, because the combination of the melting snow and convective rains could have brought flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New Years Eve storm again on the GFS. A potential miller b right before truncation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New Years Eve storm again on the GFS. A potential miller b right before truncation too. Teleconnectors look ok for that event but with no blocking its going to be tough even it does transpire. Lets get past the grinch storm first before we look into that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like a repeat of the storm before our clipper to a tee. Just sayin verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 New Years Eve storm again on the GFS. A potential miller b right before truncation too. Truncs at 192 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like a repeat of the storm before our clipper to a tee. Just sayin verbatim this run. Yup! Inland snow and coast changing to taint or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Precip type discussions 11 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just commented on that in the new england forum. The GGEM has it and the GFS has it but a little too late. Looks like 24/25th doesnt look too bad after all.... For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 12Z ECMWF tracks a low from Daytona Beach, FL at hour 162 to the twin forks at hour 192. What is initially a 1040mb high over New England slides east and the coastal plain is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 12Z ECMWF tracks a low from Daytona Beach, FL at hour 162 to the twin forks at hour 192. What is initially a 1040mb high over New England slides east and the coastal plain is warm. Par for the course thus far for the season if that happened would not be shocked at all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Par for the course thus far for the season if that happened would not be shocked at all..... Verbatim you would need to be way out towards Buffalo or Toronto to see frozen precip. Surface temps would be in the 40's and 50's region wide. We'll see if the high up north trends more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Verbatim you would need to be way out towards Buffalo or Toronto to see frozen precip. Surface temps would be in the 40's and 50's region wide. We'll see if the high up north trends more favorable.We had a favorably positioned high in the right place last weekend and see where that got us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 We had a favorably positioned high in the right place last weekend and see where that got us lol Well that was all frozen or freezing precip for me but I understand the coast changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think that's still too early for us, I still think the last couple of days of December is a better more favorable time, perhaps around New Year's Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think that's still too early for us, I still think the last couple of days of December is a better more favorable time, perhaps around New Year's Eve. The day ten Euro looks promising with precip breaking out all through the gulf states at that hour. Of course it's a long way off. FWIW not a single 12z GEFS member looked like the Euro for late next week. Waiting on the Euro ensembles which are coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is more OTS than the op with any potential day 7-9 storm which is about where I would expect it at this range. Still has the storm down near the FL coast and then near the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is more OTS than the op with any potential day 7-9 storm which is about where I would expect it at this range. Still has the storm down near the FL coast and then near the twin forks. Per the NE thread, the Euro ens are more bullish on the 12/25 anafront event. Can you confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Per the NE thread, the Euro ens are more bullish on the 12/25 anafront event. Can you confirm? For the immediate coast yes, but they are warm. Where the precip falls it's too warm for snow and where it's cold enough it's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 I didn't see any mention of the GGEM but it looks pretty close to the Euro ensemble mean today for the Christmas Eve threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The GGEM is an old fashioned snow bomb for the i95 corridor. 8-16" type totals. CMC, CMC Ens, Euro Ens, some GEFS members now show this threat. Needs to be followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 For the immediate coast yes, but they are warm. Where the precip falls it's too warm for snow and where it's cold enough it's dry. Are you sure about temps? It's an anafront situation and I doubt temps would be an issue. Since it's not too far out, I am discussing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The GGEM is an old fashioned snow bomb for the i95 corridor. 8-16" type totals. CMC, CMC Ens, Euro Ens, some GEFS members now show this threat. Needs to be followed. At 120 hours only about 3 of the 12 GFS members were a hit with a couple more slightly closer than the Op run was...that said I think this is a legitimate threat to be a storm because most likely whats going on now is the GFS' cold bias is coming into play and as a result is slamming the SE ridge down and the thermal gradient too far off the coast too quick. The Euro and GEM idea of being less aggressive pushing the boundary out to sea and flattening the SE ridge is probably more accurate. I just think the odds of this being a snow event for the coast are relatively low.....the best thing that can happen is the initial system for the 22nd-23rd really blows up as it gets up into ERN Canada and puts a bit of a negative tilt to the entire East Coast trof allowing the 2nd wave to be slower coming up the coast and take a more NNW track as it gets off SNE which could cause a rain over to snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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