December Discussion Thread

[Superstorm93]

The European control run shows signs of this potential system. Once the torch is over, then all attention will flip to it.

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[REDMK6GLI]

The European control run shows signs of this potential system. Once the torch is over, then all attention will flip to it.

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yup! this looks very interesting. a week from Christmas we may be looking at our first legit big winter storm threat of the season  

[StatenWx]

And I'm going to be in Arizona for this storm threat, of course lol.

[Superstorm93]

For now this is nothing more than a potential system. Just a hint that something could affect the coast down the road.

Will have pay close attention to the teleconnections and see how they look after this weekend.

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[SnoSki14]

It's nice to speculate but I'm holding off until after the torch and in all likelihood until after Christmas since we're going through an extended break.

[Absolute Humidity]

Late Dec, 27 - 31st seems reasonable.

[Superstorm93]

According to the ECMWF Ensembles, there would be another threat along the east coast somewhere around the Jan 2nd period or so. 

 

Once again, this is extremely far out there, but with the tele-connections looking interesting and a new pattern about to emerge, I would pay close attention once we get through this weekend. (And if these threats are still around) 

 

January could be an interesting month

[Chaser25973]

In a good winter, there's almost always a late-December threat, followed by a quick warm up around NYD followed by the coldest air of the season where we don't get above freezing for a couple of weeks, followed by a brief warm up, followed by a KU storm in early-mid Feb.

 

If we're going to follow .... AWESOME!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

According to the ECMWF Ensembles, there would be another threat along the east coast somewhere around the Jan 2nd period or so. 

 

Once again, this is extremely far out there, but with the tele-connections looking interesting and a new pattern about to emerge, I would pay close attention once we get through this weekend. (And if these threats are still around) 

 

January could be an interesting month

 

I figured that the LR computer models would pick up on it. The torch and the MJO going into a slightly favorable phase. Any little blocking will greatly boost the chance for a possible KU event. I'm not saying that a KU will happen, I'm just saying that it's within the realm of potential.

[MJO812]

New Years storm is still on the GFS

[Zelocita Weather]

Although still early, looks to me like....

Friday through Sunday well above normal/torch break...

Monday through 26th/27th transition period ( near normal temps )

And once to the 28th and beyond it seems like a cold and stormy period reasserts itself.

[PB GFI]

The difference between the GFS and the Euro for next weekends potential system can be seen between HR 162- and 168 on the models .

The European ( hopefully in its error mode ) . digs the trough too far west initially which it loves to do , in turn flexes the SE ridge ahead of it downstream . So

the center is west , it rains and turns into a FROPA .

The GFS is more broad based late next week , allowing for  LP to get out in front and get to the East coast which is a colder and snowier solution . 

 

Hate looking at D 8 threats , they are pure fantasy , but nothing else to do except root for 70 Sunday .

[NEG NAO]

This warm up is going to be just a small island in a sea of a VERY cold pattern - in fact if somehow we can get away with little rainfall over the weekend there still might be some snow cover left over a good part of the metro for Christmas Day - underneath the powder we received a couple days ago is a hard crust of ice and snow - also we should go back into the same basic pattern as we are now exiting after Christmas as the EPO will begin to go sharply negative again and also ocean water temps will continue to decline so coastals have less chance in bringing in too much warmth like what happened last weekend from the ocean. 

[Snowshack]

This warm up is going to be just a small island in a sea of a VERY cold pattern - in fact if somehow we can get away with little rainfall over the weekend there still might be some snow cover left over a good part of the metro for Christmas Day - underneath the powder we received a couple days ago is a hard crust of ice and snow - also we should go back into the same basic pattern as we are now exiting after Christmas as the EPO will begin to go sharply negative again and also ocean water temps will continue to decline so coastals have less chance in bringing in too much warm like what happened last weekend from the ocean. 

We're looking at 5 days of 40+, maybe three of them being 50+.  Even if we didn't see much rainfall, snowcover will be gone.  At least up to Albany IMO

[Weathergun]

I don't expect more than dirty piles of snow to left here in NYC, by X-mas day.

[REDMK6GLI]

Earthlight posted something regarding the new years threat in the NE december discussion thread. The third wave (new years eve/ day) is the one to watch as the pre-christmas grinch storm may or may not start to change the pattern for the NE in the long term or just temporary. He can explain it better as he posted it already and would be nice if he could post it here to give a better explanation as to what these three waves may/may not do

[Snowshack]

Earthlight posted something regarding the new years threat in the NE december discussion thread. The third wave (new years eve/ day) is the one to watch as the pre-christmas grinch storm may or may not start to change the pattern for the NE in the long term or just temporary. He can explain it better as he posted it already and would be nice if he could post it here to give a better explanation as to what these three waves may/may not do

Wonder if that will be a 'new' pattern with meaningful changes, or just a reload of what we've been experiencing.  Maybe there will be some more interim periods of blocking, but I think precip type issues may continue to plague us on the coast (its been more of an issue for us out east). 

[REDMK6GLI]

Wonder if that will be a 'new' pattern with meaningful changes, or just a reload of what we've been experiencing. Maybe there will be some more interim periods of blocking, but I think precip type issues may continue to plague us on the coast (its been more of an issue for us out east).

It typically is an issue during the winter for the south shore and east end of LI. Well the grinch storm may be able to get some kind of height rising going on the greenland whether it does it for a long lasting trend or transient blocking if you want to call it that. Usually takes one of these cutters to start to intiate a noteworthy pattern change that who knows may introduce some blocking for the new years threat. Bright side is looks like our -EPO work horse may not be going anywhere for now so thats good

[bluewave]

Wonder if that will be a 'new' pattern with meaningful changes, or just a reload of what we've been experiencing.  Maybe there will be some more interim periods of blocking, but I think precip type issues may continue to plague us on the coast (its been more of an issue for us out east). 

 

Week 2 looks like a gradient pattern here so any storms from Christmas to New Year's would favor interior sections

for the best chance of wintry conditions. We'll see if the trough can dig a little more for the first week of January?

 

http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/500za_week2_bg_na.png

[Snowshack]

It typically is an issue during the winter for the south shore and east end of LI. Well the grinch storm may be able to get some kind of height rising going on the greenland whether it does it for a long lasting trend or transient blocking if you want to call it that. Usually takes one of these cutters to start to intiate a noteworthy pattern change that who knows may introduce some blocking for the new years threat. Bright side is looks like our -EPO work horse may not be going anywhere for now so thats good

Hopefully - didn't really see that on the GEFS, but that would help us.  

[jm1220]

It typically is an issue during the winter for the south shore and east end of LI. Well the grinch storm may be able to get some kind of height rising going on the greenland whether it does it for a long lasting trend or transient blocking if you want to call it that. Usually takes one of these cutters to start to intiate a noteworthy pattern change that who knows may introduce some blocking for the new years threat. Bright side is looks like our -EPO work horse may not be going anywhere for now so thats good

We can expect mixing or rain issues for as long as there is no blocking and a strong SE ridge. The mean storm track is kept too close to us and unless we really luck out, I would expect snow to rain type scenarios to continue.

[REDMK6GLI]

We can expect mixing or rain issues for as long as there is no blocking and a strong SE ridge. The mean storm track is kept too close to us and unless we really luck out, I would expect snow to rain type scenarios to continue.

Yea same expectations here. The NAO can cover alot of sins but without that interior jackpots i think are more likely as bluewave just stated post- christmas and so on even with the -EPO dominating the pattern and providing cold air. We literally are not that far away from getting a great winter pattern if we can get some blocking in the atlantic and the pacific to cooperate

[Ralph Wiggum]

Many of the pros said there would be little to no blocking this year and so far they've been accurate.

[bluewave]

Many of the pros said there would be little to no blocking this year and so far they've been accurate.

 

The November 2012 run of the new HadGEM3 seemed to capture the shift that occurred after March 2013. 

The NAO and AO has been primarily positive since mid-April.

 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2544857

[REDMK6GLI]

The November 2012 run of the new HadGEM3 seemed to capture the shift that occurred after March 2013.

The NAO and AO has been primarily positive since mid-April.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2544857

Looks like its mixing issues for coastal areas this year with no blocking when these coastal lows develop due to nothing to lock in the cold air. This may be one those years where NYC can see 25-30" of snow and south shore of LI sees less than 20"

[Ralph Wiggum]

The November 2012 run of the new HadGEM3 seemed to capture the shift that occurred after March 2013.

The NAO and AO has been primarily positive since mid-April.http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2544857

Looks like its mixing issues for coastal areas this year with no blocking when these coastal lows develop due to nothing to lock in the cold air. This may be one those years where NYC can see 25-30" of snow and south shore of LI sees less than 20"

Forecasters in the phl area are also going for above normal snow n and w, avg near the city, and well-below avg snowfall s and e of there. This jives with the lack if blocking forecasted. If we can somehow manage a block then a huge wrench would be thrown into these forecasts but I see nothing down the line that resembles strong blocking. Perhaps late January into February and hopefully not before its too late.

[REDMK6GLI]

Forecasters in the phl area are also going for above normal snow n and w, avg near the city, and well-below avg snowfall s and e of there. This jives with the lack if blocking forecasted. If we can somehow manage a block then a huge wrench would be thrown into these forecasts but I see nothing down the line that resembles strong blocking. Perhaps late January into February and hopefully not before its too late.

Well typically late january/february is when the big snowstorms seems to be more common but like you said with no blocking its pretty much a pipe dream. Its incredible how poor the blocking has been pretty much the past several months. NE/NNE and N&W of the tristate kind of winter as of now

[Ralph Wiggum]

Forecasters in the phl area are also going for above normal snow n and w, avg near the city, and well-below avg snowfall s and e of there. This jives with the lack if blocking forecasted. If we can somehow manage a block then a huge wrench would be thrown into these forecasts but I see nothing down the line that resembles strong blocking. Perhaps late January into February and hopefully not before its too late.

Well typically late january/february is when the big snowstorms seems to be more common but like you said with no blocking its pretty much a pipe dream. Its incredible how poor the blocking has been pretty much the past several months. NE/NNE and N&W of the tristate kind of winter as of now

I haven't delved into it too much but I wonder what factors are causing the lack of blocking in the Atlantic? Does the -epo trump what we see downstrean in the Atlantic? Is it the enso state? Etc...

[REDMK6GLI]

I haven't delved into it too much but I wonder what factors are causing the lack of blocking in the Atlantic? Does the -epo trump what we see downstrean in the Atlantic? Is it the enso state? Etc...

I posted something like this in the NE thread and said last time had all teleconnectors work in tandem (screwed them relative to there average snowfall ) was 90-10. More often then not its either one cooperates and other doesnt etc. that +NAO looks stout too so doesnt look it goes away anytime soon

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS ensembles favor January 1st over December 31st for any potential east coast storm. While the 06z GFS op was OTS the 06z GEFS mean showed more promised for a better solution. Still no sign of any real west based -NAO, although both the 00z ECMWF mean and GEFS mean showed some weak ridging towards Greenland.