REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It looks like the warm coming this weekend is timed pretty well with the MJO 4 pulse. But a quick return to the COD after means that the warmer temperatures will be transient as the -EPO sends another Arctic high south early next week. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif combined_image.png looks like the one constant going forward is the dominant -EPO, now its whether we can get a more active southern jet and maybe some blocking even just transient next week into 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It looks like the warm coming this weekend is timed pretty well with the MJO 4 pulse. But a quick return to the COD after means that the warmer temperatures will be transient as the -EPO sends another Arctic high south early next week. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif combined_image.png I don't think the MJO has done much this early winter season to date. The EPO has been dictating the weather in North America. If the MJO was having an impact then with Phase 3 the storm on Saturday wouldn't have been white at all based on those temp composites for NDJ in Phase 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Regardless , We will b above normal Fri thru Mon , but once to Christmas eve we get into a colder pattern 11 inches of snow from 4 small event by Dec 17 a well deserved break is in store . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Regardless , We will b above normal Fri thru Mon , but once to Christmas eve we get into a colder pattern 11 inches of snow from 4 small event by Dec 17 a well deserved break is in store . There's still a possibility the warm boundary settles further south to at least mitigate the torch, but regardless it'll be mild for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There's still a possibility the warm boundary settles further south to at least mitigate the torch, but regardless it'll be mild for a bit. Its possible but I'm thinking at least one day of 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Its possible but I'm thinking at least one day of 60s Yeah that's looking likely. Bye bye white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah that's looking likely. Bye bye white Christmas. I doubt what we have would've stuck around anyway unless we stayed in the deep freeze. Would need something to pop up around the 23rd/24th but seems unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20. Yeah white christmases are overrated. look at 98...where did that get us? Though 95 and 09 were white christmases with good Jan/Feb's to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20. this is the worst way to get above normal snow. nickel and dimed to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 You'd hate the Connecticut Valley up in NH... All nickel and dime... this is the worst way to get above normal snow. nickel and dimed to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 this is the worst way to get above normal snow. nickel and dimed to death I'm hoping for more dimes at least than nickels or some 4-8" type events, maybe 5/6-10" heading forward. I'll be happy with that if we can't get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 this is the worst way to get above normal snow. nickel and dimed to death Yeh true But I saw the 80s. And been spoiled since 2000 like everyone else. Just sayin could have been plus 4 and zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't think the MJO has done much this early winter season to date. The EPO has been dictating the weather in North America. If the MJO was having an impact then with Phase 3 the storm on Saturday wouldn't have been white at all based on those temp composites for NDJ in Phase 3. This is the first time that we are getting any amplitude so of course it didn't have much influence up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Any possibility of a storm riding up the front around christmas? Its been bought up before a couple times the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Any possibility of a storm riding up the front around christmas? Its been bought up before a couple times the past few days Prob not , that Vortex has push to it , its takrs the cold front off the coast . The warm up in front is real as is the cold behind so its gona come . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Prob not , that Vortex has push to it , its takrs the cold front off the coast . The warm up in front is real as is the cold behind so its gona come . thinking sometime January we'll be looking at some more legit snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Fun days ahead in the second week of December http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html so did everyone have fun ? about a 10 day break and the fun should start once again by the end of the month ! GFS showing a return to this same pattern and possible east coast storm New Years eve time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 so did everyone have fun ? about a 10 day break and the fun should start once again by the end of the month ! GFS showing a return to this same pattern and possible east coast storm New Years eve time frame oh my, look at that... i wonder what Times Square would look like if that were to happen; looks like heaviest snow during the ball drop lol i still would've liked at least a coating for Christmas though, oh well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 oh my, look at that... i wonder what Times Square would look like if that were to happen; looks like heaviest snow during the ball drop lol i still would've liked at least a coating for Christmas though, oh well.. looks like January may start off with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Can anyone remember the last time it was cold and snowy enough at this point in December to have the area's biggest lakes frozen over and with snow cover to boot? Lake Tappan was totally iced over. From what I remember reading in the past, it's also quite deep with a maximum depth over 40ft. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Too far ahead for this (New year eve). But something to watch after Christmas I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 At the moment, more interested in the warmth coming in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I hope we hit 70 Sunday , But once to Tues , the cold is back and the trough is in the East for a week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I hope we hit 70 Sunday , But once to Tues , the cold is back and the trough is in the East for a week . Whats your take on the possible big east coast storm for new years eve/day? Some have bought it up in sne forum. Looks like it has some merit as it has shown up on some of the euro and gfs runs and gfs had it today? Im hoping we'll have some cold air to keep it snow if it does materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Whats your take on the possible big east coast storm for new years eve/day? Some have bought it up in sne forum. Looks like it has some merit as it has shown up on some of the euro and gfs runs and gfs had it today? Im hoping we'll have some cold air to keep it snow if it does materialize Very hard to look at any system outside 5 days . The model spread in the LR is too wide to EVER look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 PNA should be heading towards a positive phase with the NAO and AO both trending towards negative for the New Years Eve storm... Is it possible to have actual support instead of just the -EPO? "THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A BIT, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING EAST-COAST STORM SYSTEMS AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTED ANOMALOUS ONSHORE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIMITS THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO." THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 PNA should be heading towards a positive phase with the NAO and AO both trending towards negative for the New Years Eve storm... Is it possible to have actual support instead of just the -EPO? sKQMSnG.gif That's a pretty gorgeous analog composite. Now if we can get the ridging over the Atlantic to trend just a bit stronger in the NAO region we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 PNA should be heading towards a positive phase with the NAO and AO both trending towards negative for the New Years Eve storm... Is it possible to have actual support instead of just the -EPO? sKQMSnG.gif That is pretty exciting stuff. End of year seems likely that we will see a true winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That is pretty exciting stuff. End of year seems likely that we will see a true winter storm. that new years storm should be pretty damn big "IF" it pans out. looks like some favorable teleconnectors as of now as we head towards January, but we all know the LR Is a crap shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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