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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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It looks like the warm coming this weekend is timed pretty well with the MJO 4 pulse.

But a quick return to the COD after means that the warmer temperatures will be 

transient as the -EPO sends another Arctic high south early next week.

 

attachicon.gifECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

attachicon.gifcombined_image.png

 

looks like the one constant going forward is the dominant -EPO, now its whether we can get a more active southern jet and maybe some blocking even just transient next week into 2014

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It looks like the warm coming this weekend is timed pretty well with the MJO 4 pulse.

But a quick return to the COD after means that the warmer temperatures will be 

transient as the -EPO sends another Arctic high south early next week.

 

attachicon.gifECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

attachicon.gifcombined_image.png

I don't think the MJO has done much this early winter season to date.  The EPO has been dictating the weather in North America.  If the MJO was having an impact then with Phase 3 the storm on Saturday wouldn't have been white at all based on those temp composites for NDJ in Phase 3.

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Regardless , We will b above normal Fri thru Mon , but once to Christmas eve we get into a colder pattern

11 inches of snow from 4 small event by Dec 17  a well deserved break is in store .

 

There's still a possibility the warm boundary settles further south to at least mitigate the torch, but regardless it'll be mild for a bit.

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Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20.

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Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20.

Yeah white christmases are overrated. look at 98...where did that get us? Though 95 and 09 were white christmases with good Jan/Feb's to follow

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Look at it this way Dec may end up close to minus 2. And for a lot off pp there was 10 to 12 inches of snow for the month. So yes there's no white xmas but it was a great month so far Xmas week looks average to below and hope for a white new years. This was a very good month pre Dec 20.

this is the worst way to get above normal snow.  nickel and dimed to death

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I don't think the MJO has done much this early winter season to date.  The EPO has been dictating the weather in North America.  If the MJO was having an impact then with Phase 3 the storm on Saturday wouldn't have been white at all based on those temp composites for NDJ in Phase 3.

 

This is the first time that we are getting any amplitude so of course it didn't have much influence up until now.

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Any possibility of a storm riding up the front around christmas? Its been bought up before a couple times the past few days

Prob not , that Vortex has push to it , its takrs  the cold front off the coast . The warm up in front is real as is the cold behind  so its gona come  .

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so did everyone have fun ? about a 10 day break and the fun should start once again by the end of the month ! GFS showing a return to this same pattern and possible east coast storm New Years eve time frame

 

oh my, look at that... i wonder what Times Square would look like if that were to happen; looks like heaviest snow during the ball drop lol

 

i still would've liked at least a coating for Christmas though, oh well..

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Can anyone remember the last time it was cold and snowy enough at this point in December to have the area's biggest lakes frozen over and with snow cover to boot? Lake Tappan was totally iced over. From what I remember reading in the past, it's also quite deep with a maximum depth over 40ft. Pretty impressive.

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I hope we hit 70 Sunday , But once to Tues , the cold is back and the trough is in the East for a week .eps_t850_noram_61.png

Whats your take on the possible big east coast storm for new years eve/day? Some have bought it up in sne forum. Looks like it has some merit as it has shown up on some of the euro and gfs runs and gfs had it today? Im hoping we'll have some cold air to keep it snow if it does materialize

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Whats your take on the possible big east coast storm for new years eve/day? Some have bought it up in sne forum. Looks like it has some merit as it has shown up on some of the euro and gfs runs and gfs had it today? Im hoping we'll have some cold air to keep it snow if it does materialize

Very hard to look at any system outside 5 days . The model spread in the LR is too wide to EVER  look  at it

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PNA should be heading towards a positive phase with the NAO and AO both trending towards negative for the New Years Eve storm...

 

Is it possible to have actual support instead of just the -EPO? 

 

"THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
DEEPEN A BIT, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING EAST-COAST STORM SYSTEMS AND SLIGHTLY 
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST 

AND IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTED ANOMALOUS ONSHORE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS LIMITS THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF 
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
."

 

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z 
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10.

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE 
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
AMONG THE TOOLS.

 

 


 

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PNA should be heading towards a positive phase with the NAO and AO both trending towards negative for the New Years Eve storm...

 

Is it possible to have actual support instead of just the -EPO? 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifsKQMSnG.gif

That's a pretty gorgeous analog composite. Now if we can get the ridging over the Atlantic to trend just a bit stronger in the NAO region we'll be in business.  

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