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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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The snowicane back in Feb 2010 had one of the sharpest & strangest R/S lines I have ever seen. Also rivaled some of the greatest storms in regards to snowfall rates. Def in my top 3 for snowstorms.. 25-38" widespread up here

Its was paste in the first half of the storm right?

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Once past Thursday  , the Euro gives the East  a break for a bit , we lose the Neg EPO and Neg WPO , they head to neutral , the PNA does rise but it ushers air that's pacific in nature  .Later this week into

early next week we are above normal ,  but once into next week even when the tough comes back in to the East  the Air mass is polar pacific not arctic and modify easy as they come across the country , so be surprised if you see the trough in the east and we are prob close to normal . The source region will change and we get  pinched off from true over the top arctic air through Christmas week as per the Euro Ensembles .

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Once past Thursday , the Euro gives the East a break for a bit , we lose the Neg EPO and Neg WPO , they head to neutral , the PNA does rise but it ushers air that's pacific in nature .Later this week into

early next week we are above normal , but once into next week even when the tough comes back in to the East the Air mass is polar pacific not arctic and modify easy as they come across the country , so be surprised if you see the trough in the east and we are prob close to normal . The source region will change and we get pinched off from true over the top arctic air through Christmas week as per the Euro Ensembles .

From this statement looks like were going to have to now focus after the new year as the -EPO replenishes. Who knows maybe we'll get "some" blocking as well

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Once past Thursday  , the Euro gives the East  a break for a bit , we lose the Neg EPO and Neg WPO , they head to neutral , the PNA does rise but it ushers air that's pacific in nature  .Later this week into

early next week we are above normal ,  but once into next week even when the tough comes back in to the East  the Air mass is polar pacific not arctic and modify easy as they come across the country , so be surprised if you see the trough in the east and we are prob close to normal . The source region will change and we get  pinched off from true over the top arctic air through Christmas week as per the Euro Ensembles .

 

I think that is a MJO 4 December thaw for a few days as the Euro ensemble holds serve with the the low tracking near

or just west of us. It gives the SE ridge just enough of a boost to keep the storm from slipping to our SE.

 

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I think that is a MJO 4 December thaw for a few days as the Euro ensemble holds serve with the the low tracking near

or just west of us.

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_168.gif

Yeh dude , you said that yesterday , VERY GOOD  call , was gona catch up  to  you . First thing  I thought this AM when I SAW the Euro

MJO ....  That's takes a lot of snowcover off the board I 80 on S and E

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Yeh dude , you said that yesterday , VERY GOOD  call , was gona catch up  to  you . First thing  I thought this AM when I SAW the Euro

MJO ....  That's takes a lot of snowcover off the board I 80 on S and E

 

The Euro ensemble is just such a good piece of guidance that the GFS and OP Euro broke toward the solution at 0z.

 

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Its was paste in the first half of the storm right?

Yeah, paste is one word, cement is another.  Some of the wettest snow I've ever seen for the first part of that storm but it flipped to powder as the colder air made it's way back in at night.  Spend nearly four days without power or water, needess to say, I have a generator now.

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-PNA expected to venture into positive territory although not going strongly positive

-NAO still showing no signs of developing any sort of blocking towards the end of the month. Staying solidly positive

-the driving force of this cold weather really the strongly negative EPO is expected relax ( reload if you will ). Opening the door for warmer air in comparison to what were experiencing now. Not really excited for any winter weather past this week. ( this is an amatuer forecast so try not to criticize too much please ) ;)

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Blzzard Sunday CHICAGO as per Euro

Home game for the chicago bears? Because the philly game has made me a huge fan of snowy nfl games lol

More to the LR forecast PB, do you see january currently becoming more condusive for big snowstorms on the east coast assuming the -EPO returns with a vengeance? The idea of no blocking showing up on LR models isnt encouraging either. With 95-96' analog being thrown around questions like these i think are going to inevitably be asked as the month winds to a close

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Home game for the chicago bears? Because the philly game has made me a huge fan of snowy nfl games lol

More to the LR forecast PB, do you see january currently becoming more condusive for big snowstorms on the east coast assuming the -EPO returns with a vengeance? The idea of no blocking showing up on LR models isnt encouraging either. With 95-96' analog being thrown around questions like these i think are going to inevitably be asked as the month winds to a close

Bear are @ Philly , 60 and Rain there  LR i really have no idea  , Think next week is below normal after a warm wknd

thats as far as i will go . Don S would be better to ask my man

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It truly can pour snow at times during heavy lake effect bands. By far, the most perfect dendrites and just absolutely blinding (no due to wind either). Erie, PA was probably the most impressive for me...I witnessed thunder snow on at least three or four times while living there. I do remember one night when it snowed about a foot and a half overnight, unexpectedly.

 

Spent the first 20 years of my life living in South Buffalo and it's incredible what those snow bands can do.  I went to school downtown and I remember a few occasions leaving school with clouds and dry conditions and getting home to find a foot of snow had fallen.  The worst one I remember was in the late 90's when we got about 38" of snow overnight.  Unfortunately, I had moved out of the area when they got slammed with upwards of 6 feet of snow in 1 week in the early 2000's (it was Christmas week IIRC).  You could always tell when the snow band was on the move as the winds would start to pick up.  In the heart of those bands it's just incredibly heavy snow with no wind whatsoever.

 

The snowicane back in Feb 2010 had one of the sharpest & strangest R/S lines I have ever seen. Also rivaled some of the greatest storms in regards to snowfall rates. Def in my top 3 for snowstorms.. 25-38" widespread up here

 

This was the worst experience of my snow weenie life!  Poughkeepsie was literally on the rain/snow line.  Left work in Fishkill the morning it started with about 6" of snow, changed to rain on my way home and continued to rain (with occasional snow) until the next morning when it finally changed (and ended).  Fishkill ended up with 2 ft+.  I think my backyard had somewhere around 8".

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Bear are @ Philly , 60 and Rain there LR i really have no idea , Think next week is below normal after a warm wknd

thats as far as i will go . Don S would be better to ask my man

Thanks, im HOPING for a nice january/ febraury as those are really the meat and potato months for winter weather in my opinion with march being a real wild card to produce something big (i.e. 93' superstorm )

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Spent the first 20 years of my life living in South Buffalo and it's incredible what those snow bands can do.  I went to school downtown and I remember a few occasions leaving school with clouds and dry conditions and getting home to find a foot of snow had fallen.  The worst one I remember was in the late 90's when we got about 38" of snow overnight.  Unfortunately, I had moved out of the area when they got slammed with upwards of 6 feet of snow in 1 week in the early 2000's (it was Christmas week IIRC).  You could always tell when the snow band was on the move as the winds would start to pick up.  In the heart of those bands it's just incredibly heavy snow with no wind whatsoever.

 

 

This was the worst experience of my snow weenie life!  Poughkeepsie was literally on the rain/snow line.  Left work in Fishkill the morning it started with about 6" of snow, changed to rain on my way home and continued to rain (with occasional snow) until the next morning when it finally changed (and ended).  Fishkill ended up with 2 ft+.  I think my backyard had somewhere around 8".

Central Park 25 miles away from me had over double the snow I had on 2/25/10. I had about 10" at the end and Central Park ended up with 21". The rain snow line was sharp as a razor over central Queens for much of the initial part of that. It went from a blinding blizzard in Long Island City to soaking rain south or east of Jamaica.

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Same list here, except I'd change 1/15/04 to 1/27/04 (suspect that is what you meant as well).  I might add 4/9/1996 to the list.  Probably  '78 too, although my recall of that detail isn't as specific...I think there were a few hours of crazy rates on 2/6.

 

Yes Ed, I *always* confuse those 2...good catch on your part.  One was 8 inches here and the other 10.  And one was accompanied by incredibly cold temps. 

I was asked at work today what I thought tomorrow would bring, and cravenly borrowed a line from that federal agent in The Firm... saying it..."could go either way"...but I think we have a decent shot at this latitude, being right next to 41 N.  There were several events last year where the intrusion of warm air in Port Jeff were overestimated.  The main problem was that while it snowed when rain was predicted, it was often too warm to accumulate and didn't amount to anything anyway. 

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Whether the ecm is too warm or not with its 850 temp of 15-16 this sat/sun, the weekend should see a significant warmup and it would not be shocking to see some readings approach 60 on sunday.   Likely more of a speed bump of warmth christmas week before we head back to colder weather towards the last week and into new year.

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I want to see what develops along the front next week after the sunday torch. hearing from this sub-forum and NE that they're may be a wave that can develop and ride up into the northeast potentially delivering some good snows. after this storm today, looks like this will be the next legit threat until the pattern relaxes and maybe restarts for the 2014

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