December Discussion Thread

[MJO812]

Above average snowfall so far for nyc. Amazing.

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/15/2013 / 4:30 AM

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.1"
Allentown: 10.8"

Scranton / Wilkes Barre: 10.1"
Newark Airport: 7.4"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 7.2"

NYC Central Park: 7.1"

NYC LaGuardia: 6.7"
NYC JFK: 6.2"
Islip, NY: 6.0"
Washington Dulles: 4.5"

Atlantic City: 3.1"

Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"

Washington National: 1.5"

[chietanen]

Next weekend looks brutal if one were to believe the Euro (temps in 60's), GFS not really buying it and has a much less pronounced and shorter warm-up.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[bluewave]

Next weekend looks brutal if one were to believe the Euro (temps in 60's), GFS not really buying it and has a much less pronounced and shorter warm-up.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

It is going to depend on how fast the SW low ejects to the east. A faster ejection would allow a further west and warmer track.

A slower version will result in a less warm scenario with a low that huggs the coast. Either way, it's another

opportunity to pick up some much needed rainfall here.

 

There will also be a warmup  ahead of the first low later in the week that the GEFS are showing also.

 

First low

 

 

 

 Second Low?

 

 

[KEITH L.I]

It is going to depend on how fast the SW low ejects to the east. A faster ejection would allow a further west and warmer track.

A slower version will result in a less warm scenario with a low that huggs the coast. Either way, it's another

opportunity to pick up some much needed rainfall here.

 

There will also be a warmup  ahead of the first low later in the week that the GEFS are showing also.

 

First low

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_23.png

 

 

 Second Low?

 

 

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif

12z GFS has a totally different setup

[bluewave]

12z GFS has a totally different setup

 

The models generally struggle when we get into a split flow pattern with a low closing off over the Southwest.

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

The models generally struggle when we get into a split flow pattern with a low closing off over the Southwest.

This weekend break doesn't bother me. It's 2 to 3 days above. It's after the day 10 looks like the EPO

And WPO go neut. so if u see Canada moderate then we break a bit.

[bluewave]

This weekend break doesn't bother me. It's 2 to 3 days above. It's after the day 10 looks like the EPO

And WPO go neut. so if u see Canada moderate then we break a bit.

 

You would expect to see some moderation in the temperature pattern with the MJO going into 4 this week. But longer term we have to watch for the PNA going more neutral or even positive to

get the mean trough position a little further east with colder temperatures.

 

 

[PB GFI]

You would expect to see some moderation in the temperature pattern with the MJO going into 4 this week. But longer term we have to watch for the PNA going more neutral or even positive to

get the mean trough position a little further east with colder temperatures.

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

pna.sprd2.gif

Spoke to JB this am after he cut his vid said thinks as long as one is favorable we ok. But thinks jan is a jail break

[bluewave]

Spoke to JB this am after he cut his vid said thinks as long as one is favorable we ok. But thinks jan is a jail break

 

We'll probably need to shift the mean trough position east to continue the colder than normal pattern 

into January. It looks like the EPO will be less negative the next few weeks, so we need help from the 

PNA to continue the cold. The Atlantic really doesn't look favorable for the next 2 weeks.

 

[PB GFI]

We'll probably need to shift the mean trough position east to continue the colder than normal pattern 

into January. It looks like the EPO will be less negative the next few weeks, so we need help from the 

PNA to continue the cold. The Atlantic really doesn't look favorable for the next 2 weeks.

 

4panel.png

I think you will see starting just after Xmas even the trough is in the east w the pos Pna the air masses will not be as cold

Because the source region will b different It will polar pacific air and will not hang as tough as ths has

Especially w a pos NAO we will not be lucky for the few weeks its in play.

After that look for the PV to come southeast thru the lakes

[winterwarlock]

what is the deal with Tuesday's clipper...wow this board is slipping, not even a peep

[Stormlover74]

what is the deal with Tuesday's clipper...wow this board is slipping, not even a peep

Separate thread

[BxEngine]

what is the deal with Tuesday's clipper...wow this board is slipping, not even a peep

There is a 3 pg thread.

[winterwarlock]

oops my bad...found it..looks like I am the one slipping

[BxEngine]

oops my bad...found it..looks like I am the one slipping

Not everyone can age gracefully, dont stress. Lol

[SnoSki14]

The pattern has been kind of unpredictable since mid November, so while it may point to a warmer look now doesn't mean it'll end up that way.

The AO however is absolutely raging, what a crazy change we've seen.

[uncle W]

the last three years NYC got at least 2.9" of snow before December 15th...I'm not sure if the three straight years with that much snow before mid December is a record...without my racords which are packed up now I'm not sure...1896-1898 could of had three straight...1902-04, 1915-17, 1938-41, 1951-53 is close...1951 had 3.3" December 14-15th...1952 had 6-7" before December 6th...1953 had 2.2" on November 6th...

[MJO812]

The Euro shows an icestorm for alot of areas at 160 hours

[atownwxwatcher]

The Euro shows an icestorm for alot of areas at 160 hours

From 162-192 hrs.. A long duration event.. Thicknesses are a little high and surface temps are in the low to mid 30s but it does scream either snow or ice potential. A little skeptical cause the last couple runs have showed temps in the 60s and now this solution..

[Stormlover74]

You know we've been in a cold air mass when today feels practically balmy yet we're still 5 degrees below normal

[bluewave]

From 162-192 hrs.. A long duration event.. Thicknesses are a little high and surface temps are in the low to mid 30s but it does scream either snow or ice potential. A little skeptical cause the last couple runs have showed temps in the 60s and now this solution..

 

The Ensemble mean looks more like it's last run than the 12z OP. But the gradient is so tight that a a small

shift will have a big impact on temperatures.

 

[PB GFI]

The Ensemble mean looks more like it's last run than the 12z OP. But the gradient is so tight that a a small

shift will have a big impact on temperatures.

 

Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_168.gif

3 days ago ths was west of the mtns. Yesterday its decide to be on the east side. That s really close to becoming a significant feature

for us Pre Xmas

I would love to see this get into its d3 to d5 range

[bluewave]

3 days ago ths was west of the mtns. Yesterday its decide to be on the east side. That s really close to becoming a significant feature

for us Pre Xmas

I would love to see this get into its d3 to d5 range

 

The speed of the southern stream cutoff ejection will determine the track. But the MJO going into 4 makes me skeptical of

a track to our east.

[PB GFI]

The speed of the southern stream cutoff ejection will determine the track. But the MJO going into 4 makes me skeptical of

a track to our east.

The 500 mb press has been constant. It's pushed on the ridge all month. I don't disagree it's not the best set up

But the tendency has been east so far , I expect its a close buzz. Fwiw. Xmas nite clipper possible.

I like our chances

[REDMK6GLI]

The 500 mb press has been constant. It's pushed on the ridge all month. I don't disagree it's not the best set up

But the tendency has been east so far , I expect its a close buzz. Fwiw. Xmas nite clipper possible.

I like our chances

 

thinking that this year we may have some memorable moments as 2014 arrives. the strongly -EPO doesn't show signs of really dissipating, southern stream has been more active and if we can get some period blocking and +PNA some big events can occur

[bluewave]

thinking that this year we may have some memorable moments as 2014 arrives. the strongly -EPO doesn't show signs of really dissipating, southern stream has been more active and if we can get some period blocking and +PNA some big events can occur

 

We can that massive -EPO ridge for the best U.S. snow cover in 11 years on December 15th.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

We can that massive -EPO ridge for the best U.S. snow cover in 11 years on December 15th.

 

Screen shot 2013-12-15 at 6.36.46 PM.png

 

WOW! that is impressive bud. anyways according to me NOAA Iphone app im going to have a low of 30f dec. 24th w/ chance of a thunderstorm

[odwalla]

Ummm...

 

The 18z GFS has an incredibly bizarre event from D7-9; insane amount of QPF that transitions from torrential rains to blindingly heavy snow... literally would be 4-5" of QPF and probably 1-2 feet of snow at the end... (or more!)

 

[Allsnow]

Seasonal Snowfall

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/15/2013 / 4:30 AM

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.1"

Allentown: 10.8"

Scranton / Wilkes Barre: 10.1"

Newark Airport: 7.4"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 7.2"

NYC Central Park: 7.1"

NYC LaGuardia: 6.7"

NYC JFK: 6.2"

Islip, NY: 6.0"

Washington Dulles: 4.5"

Atlantic City: 3.1"

Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"

Washington National: 1.5"

Thank you William