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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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Even if we dont get snow the cold will have some shot at some records. Be nice to break some record low max's to ruffle the jimmies of the "global warming crowd" (not starting a climate change debate)

 

As much of a strong believer in AGW I am, I love to see cold records fall. It's a good sign. KNYC hasn't seen a record low min in a long time and this is the kind of pattern that can deliver. I'm hopeful. Snow pack helps too.  :santa:

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since the 8th NYC is in a cold regime...We had two minor snow events and another hopefully larger one on the way...The long range has more cold after a brief warm up...I was looking at Decembers with a cold two weeks before Christmas...I used the 10th to 23rd...here are the coldest I could find without any torching...we got the first day below 32 for a max...tomorrow could be the first minimum below 20...

day.....max/min...precip...snowfall...depth...

1995...........................................................

10th.....32/15..........0.............0............T

11th.....24/15..........0.............0............0

12th.....26/16..........0.............0............0

13th.....28/20..........0.............0............0

14th.....37/24........0.42........1.7...........1

15th.....44/32..........0.............0............1

16th.....41/33........0.21........0.5...........T

17th.....41/31..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....33/22........0.68........5.5...........6

20th.....23/18........0.12........2.2...........7

21st.....30/19..........T.............T............6

22nd....34/28..........0.............0............6

23rd.....38/29..........0.............0............5

1960.............................................................

10th.....40/26..........0.............0............0

11th.....34/19........0.18........3.6...........4

12th.....21/9..........0.68......11.6..........15

13th.....20/8............0.............0..........15

14th.....29/17..........0.............0..........14

15th.....40/22..........T.............0..........12

16th.....40/30........0.24........0.1.........10

17th.....33/23..........0.............0............9

18th.....35/24..........0.............0............8

19th.....34/24........0.11........1.3...........9

20th.....34/21..........0.............0............8

21st.....49/25........1.29..........0............4

22nd....25/16..........0.............0............2

23rd.....22/9............0.............0............2

1958..............................................................

10th.....24/14..........0.............0............2

11th.....23/14..........T.............T............1

12th.....29/18..........0.............0............1

13th.....30/21..........0.............0............1

14th.....30/20........0.03........0.3...........1

15th.....30/20........0.01........0.1...........1

16th.....29/18..........0.............0............1

17th.....40/24..........0.............0............T

18th.....37/29..........0.............0............T

19th.....46/30..........T.............0............T

20th.....41/15..........T.............0............0

21st.....27/14..........0.............0............0

22nd....29/12..........0.............0............0

23rd.....47/29..........0.............0............0

1955....................................................................

10th.....33/24..........0.............0............0

11th.....36/23..........0.............0............0

12th.....38/27..........0.............0............0

13th.....39/26..........0.............0............0

14th.....40/29..........0.............0............0

15th.....42/21..........0.............0............0

16th.....31/17..........0.............0............0

17th.....38/23..........0.............0............0

18th.....43/30..........0.............0............0

19th.....35/20........0.01........0.1...........0

20th.....20/6............0.............0............0

21st.....18/5............0.............0............0

22nd....22/12........0.15........2.7...........3

23rd.....25/15..........0.............0............2

1962...............................................................

10th.....32/21........0.01........0.1...........1

11th.....26/18..........0.............0............T

12th.....25/16..........0.............0............T

13th.....23/13..........0.............0............T

14th.....25/16..........T.............T............T

15th.....27/14..........T.............T............T

16th.....31/23........0.01........0.3...........T

17th.....34/21..........0.............0............T

18th.....39/24..........0.............0............0

19th.....41/37..........0.............0............0

20th.....41/14..........0.............0............0

21st.....28/10........0.16........1.6............2

22nd....37/28........0.38........1.1............3

23rd.....39/31..........T.............T............1

1963...............................................................

10th.....39/33..........T.............T............0

11th.....37/30..........0.............0............0

12th.....36/27........0.32........2.3...........2

13th.....37/27..........0.............0............1

14th.....37/21........0.05..........T............T

15th.....29/18..........0.............0............T

16th.....27/19..........0.............0............T

17th.....29/20..........0.............0............T

18th.....30/23........0.14........1.4...........1

19th.....30/16..........T.............T............1

20th.....26/11..........0.............0............1

21st.....22/11..........0.............0............1

22nd....36/21..........0.............0............T

23rd.....32/28........0.60........6.0...........6

1989...................................................................

10th.....35/23..........0.............0............0

11th.....39/31..........0.............0............0

12th.....35/31..........T.............T............0

13th.....31/22........0.01........0.1...........T

14th.....31/14..........0.............0............0

15th.....40/23........0.15........0.7...........1

16th.....39/20..........T.............T...........T

17th.....31/18..........0.............0............0

18th.....27/16..........0.............0............0

19th.....27/18..........T.............T............0

20th.....32/19..........T.............T............0

21st.....22/12..........T.............T............T

22nd....18/8............0.............0............0

23rd.....22/6............0.............0............0

...........................................................................

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We have healthy supplies of arctic air in canada. Now to start 2014 if we can get some blocking we could finally be talking about potentially major snowstorms for the metroplex area. We literally are not far away from getting a bombing LP off the east seaboard with blocking and copious amounts of cold air available as well. I am cautiously optimistic of 2014 as i think were in for something memorable if the blocking does occur at the right time

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Lewis County:

  • Constableville 56.0 Inches
  • Glenfield 42.0 inches
  • Highmarket 42.0 inches
  • Lowville 32.0 inches
  • Cgroghan 17.0 inches
  • Oswego County:
  • Redfield 58.0 inches
  • Lacona 33.0 inches
  • Bennetts Bridge 28.0 inches
  • Pulaski 22.0 inches

Some LES totals , After seeing the 0z Euro , this is like salt n the wound , the warm up is 5 days , not 2 . Looked zonal from next Thursday for 5 days .

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The models have really backed off of the cold that they were hinting at for the holidays and now have

close to normal readings.

 

colder run a few days ago

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

Cold remaining further north in Canada

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif

 

NAEFS looks close to normal for week 2

 

attachicon.gif2013121400_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

Yeh , gone is the cold look  .The Trough heads into Europe , D 10 thru D 15 . The 500 MBs Euro Ensembles look zonal , We are missing this storm here in CNJ , and after a few days of cold This mornings Euro just have an above normal weekend and normal to above look as we go through xmas week .

Don't see a reloading of the pattern on those maps .

The GFS looks colder . The Euro did this a few weeks ago and 3 days later it lost the warmth , I can only hope its making a mistake again otherwise we are taking a break

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Yeh , gone is the cold look  .The Trough heads into Europe , D 10 thru D 15 . The 500 MBs Euro Ensembles look zonal , We are missing this storm here in CNJ , and after a few days of cold This mornings Euro just have an above normal weekend and normal to above look as we go through xmas week .

Don't see a reloading of the pattern on those maps .

The GFS looks colder . The Euro did this a few weeks ago and 3 days later it lost the warmth , I can only hope its making a mistake again otherwise we are taking a break

 

It looks like the models picked up on the stronger +AO the last few days than was earlier forecast.

 

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It looks like the models picked up on the stronger +AO the last few days than was earlier forecast.

 

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif

I'm not sure. 2 things. We've been positive since nov yet since nov 1 we r prob minus 2. The GFS has been beating it lately in the LR

Wow. I never thought I would ever type that. It mayb a case where the corrects colder over time.

Look what it does day 9 now.

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