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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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Temps look to start out slightly above average for the first week of December. The models have been keying in on a coastal threat near the 5th however the low is modeled to be weak and we have a big trough along the west coast at that time. In the weenie range, the GFS has three separate southern stream threats. It's likely that our next threat will evolve during that time period.

 

Overall the first part of December will start off with a negative PNA and split flow in the east.

 

test8.gif

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GGEM/GFS models trended colder for a potential storm Day 6-7...Today's EURO looks like a hit for parts of NE, unsure of NYC/Philly...Temps have trended colder but still not sure of surface/precip. 

 

The ECMWF is pretty far south and east. It has norlun-type light event over CNJ and LI. But 2m temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s.

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Yesterday I really thought the first 15 days of Dec would b above normal in the east but the last 2 runs of the European OP and its ENS

no longer advertizes that.

That ridge in Alaska is relentless and it keeps sending the vortex south and east and even though the core of the cold is centered in the plains for the next 15 days its spreads east and we average normal at best if not below.

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December 1869-2010 Central Park...
there is a noticeable lack of single digit temperatures since the 1980's...
decade..ave.temp..high..low...ave.max/min..max..min...precipitation...snowfall
1870's......32.7......37.4......24.9....'.....................64......-2...2.88"...6.7"
1880's......33.6......40.0......26.5......57.3.....7.9....67......-6...3.28"...7.1"
1890's......35.9......42.3......29.9......58.8...12.0....66.......8...2.97"...4.3"
1900's......34.8......38.9......30.3......57.1...13.6....64.......4...3.95"...6.2"
1910's......34.1......39.4......25.0......59.4...10.8....64....-13...3.80"...7.5"
1920's......35.5......42.0......28.9......59.0...13.2....68.......7...3.49"...4.2"
1930's......35.9......41.0......30.0......61.2...11.7....68......-6...2.86"...4.3"
1940's......35.4......39.4......31.0......59.5...11.7....70......-4...3.39"...9.1"
1950's......36.8......41.3......29.4......59.7...12.0....67.......5...3.49"...4.7"
1960's......34.8......40.5......30.9......61.6...12.9....68.......4...3.70"...7.4"
1970's......37.4......41.1......29.9......61.6...17.6....67.......9...4.63"...1.7"
1980's......36.6......43.8......25.9......61.0...11.8....72......-1...3.14"...2.1"
1990's......39.5......43.2......32.4......64.0...16.5....75.....10...4.04"...2.9"
2000's......37.7......44.1......31.1......62.9...16.6....71.....11...4.45"...7.8"
2010's......39.0......43.3......32.8......63.7...22.0....71.....19...4.48"...7.3"
1870-
2009.........35.6.............................60.2...12.9....................3.58"...5.4"
1980-

2009.........37.9.............................62.6...15.0....................3.88"...4.3"

Coldest............warmest............wettest..........Driest......
24.9 in 1876 ... 44.1 in 2001 ... 9.98" in 1973 ... 0.25" in 1955
25.0 in 1917 ... 43.8 in 1984 ... 9.77" in 1983 ... 0.58" in 1980
25.9 in 1989 ... 43.6 in 2006 ... 7.53" in 1936 ... 0.68" in 1877
26.5 in 1880 ... 43.3 in 2011 ... 7.27" in 2009 ... 0.83" in 1989
26.7 in 1872 ... 43.2 in 1998 ... 7.07" in 1969 ... 0.83" in 1985
28.9 in 1926 ... 42.8 in 1982 ... 7.01" in 1901 ... 0.98" in 1928
29.2 in 1871 ... 42.6 in 1990 ... 6.77" in 1902 ... 1.12" in 1998
29.4 in 1958 ... 42.3 in 1891 ... 6.62" in 2008 ... 1.13" in 1988
29.6 in 1886 ... 42.2 in 1994 ... 6.48" in 1996 ... 1.13" in 1896
29.7 in 1955 ... 42.0 in 1923 ... 6.33" in 1974 ... 1.20" in 1943
Warmest temperatures...
75 1998 12/7
74 1998 12/4
72 1982 12/4
71 2001 12/6

71 2013 12/22
70 1946 12/10
70 2006 12/1
70 2001 12/5
70 1984 12/29
Coldest temperatures...
-13 1917 12/30
-7 1917 12/31
-6 1917 12/29
-6 1880 12/30
-6 1933 12/30
-4 1942 12/20
-3 1884 12/20
-3 1933 12/29
-3 1880 12/31
Coldest monthly max...
47 in 1917
49 in 1876
49 in 1880
49 in 1890
49 in 1926
Warmest monthly min...
28 in 2012
26 in 1974
25 in 1984
24 in 1908
23 in 1923
22 in 1907
22 in 1918
22 in 2011
Greatest monthly snow...
29.6" in 1947
27.0" in 1872
25.3" in 1948
22.5" in 1883
20.1" in 2010
19.8" in 2003
18.6" in 1960
15.8" in 1959
15.6" in 1945
14.9" in 1933
14.5" in 1916
Biggest snowfalls...
26.4" 1947 12/26-27
20.0" 2010 12/26-27
18.0" 1872 12/26
16.0" 1948 12/19-20
15.2" 1960 12/11-12
14.0" 2003 12/5-7
13.7" 1959 12/21-22
12.7" 1916 12/15
12.0" 2000 12/30
11.4" 1912 12/24
11.2" 1933 12/26
10.9" 2009 12/19-20

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Watch for the possibility of the day 6 threat to positively impact the day 10 threat for us .

Last winter the european had 2 scenarios in its day 10 that drove a system to the lakes in its day 8 thru 10 that in the end bellied under as

we got closer. JB did opine the day 6 system mayb able to drag the frontal boundary closer to the coast and not have the trough buckle in the Midwest but come all the way east wana credit where I read it .

The negative to the idea is there's no block , so there's not as much resistance as one would like too see.

Just something to watch after the day 6 threat.

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Watch for the possibility of the day 6 threat to positively impact the day 10 threat for us .

Last winter the european had 2 scenarios in its day 10 that drove a system to the lakes in its day 8 thru 10 that in the end bellied under as

we got closer. JB did opine the day 6 system mayb able to drag the frontal boundary closer to the coast and not have the trough buckle in the Midwest but come all the way east wana credit where I read it .

The negative to the idea is there's no block , so there's not as much resistance as one would like too see.

Just something to watch after the day 6 threat.

 

With -EPO dominated Decembers like we saw in 2008, we can still get a moderate snowfall event at some point next month if

things break in our favor. A moderate snow like 12-19-08 could always pop up if we get lucky. It's just that you would want a strong

Atlantic blocking pattern for a Boxing Day or Millennium style storm.

 

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I'm looking foward to a more normal December with maybe some snow for Christmas...Last year we got snow flakes Christmas eve...This year could be a lot colder...It could mean a lot of ice...TWT...Back in December 1951 there was a period of cold waves and rain storms...One storm managed to stay snow and sleet and accumulate to 3.3"...The next two were classic inland runners with all rain...1951 dailies...

date...max...min...rain...snow

13th.....30.....25...0.01.....T

14th.....34.....21.....0........0

15th.....39.....20...0.86...3.3

16th.....20.....11.....0........0

17th.....20.......8.....0........0

18th.....25.......9.....0........0

19th.....48.....22...1.10.....0

20th.....27.....18.....0........0

21st.....57.....22...1.35.....0

22nd....52.....30.....T........0

23rd.....33.....26.....0........0

what a waste of cold air...

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With -EPO dominated Decembers like we saw in 2008, we can still get a moderate snowfall event at some point next month if

things break in our favor. A moderate snow like 12-19-08 could always pop up if we get lucky. It's just that you would want a strong

Atlantic blocking pattern for a Boxing Day or Millennium style storm.

 

attachicon.gif08.png

He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side.

Easterly winds on the coast in the mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call

For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp .

The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east

Helping the follower

I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake.

925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot .

Those are killers without blocking .

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He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side.

Easterly winds on the coast in the mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call

For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp .

The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east

Helping the follower

I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake.

925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot .

Those are killers without blocking .

 

Storm details beyond day 5 are always a bit of a roll of the dice. I was commenting more on what the general December 

theme may look like.

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He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) in t when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side.

Easterly winds on the coasthe mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call

For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp .

The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east

Helping the follower

I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake.

925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot .

Those are killers without blocking .

that's what happened in December 1951...The AO was plus all month and big time at that...

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Weeklies show the entire country flooded with warm air, coast to coast, toast to toast for second halve of December.   Comments?

There is no sign that "MissPolarVortex" will drop her skirt for us.   Ref.  'StormVista'

 

Warmth, likely due to Euro ensembles taking the MJO into warmer phases 3 and 4 in December:

 

1eaqmt.jpg

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Just for fun, I put together a list of winter snowfall analogs for Decembers with a -EPO/+NAO/+AO pattern.

 

2008-2009.....27.6"

1992-1993.....24.5"

1990-1991.....24.9"

1989-1990....13.4"

1983-1984....25.4"

1971-1972-...22.9"

1951-1952....19.7"

 

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Weeklies show the entire country flooded with warm air, coast to coast, toast to toast for second halve of December.   Comments?

There is no sign that "MissPolarVortex" will drop her skirt for us.   Ref.  'StormVista'

that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday

 

Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging.

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that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday

 

Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging.

I haven't seen the Euro weeklies yet. But they come out every Monday and Thursday.

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It's hard to get excited about this pattern though, and if the MJO is correct in moving into phases 3 and 4 then it will turn milder by mid month.

The pattern strongly favors the west while we remain devoid of blocking. There's still a struggle to move that cold east. I definitely feel this is going to be a late starting winter especially if a weak El Niño develops later on along with a falling QBO as some METS have stated.

The best winter weather could be February and March.

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This is why I don't get excited nor displeased at any long range forecast.

I don't even look because it changes so much in a week to ten days out...I get the play by play in here..I give a lot of weight to analogs that are in sinc with the pattern we are seeing...The AO was down a bit today...It's still on the plus side but barely...It was forecast to sharply rise...Bluewave through out some interesting analogs   1951-52 especially because it had a very positive ao throughout the month of December...

2008-2009.....27.6"...cold January

1992-1993.....24.5"...cold February

1990-1991.....24.9"...mild..

1989-1990....13.4"...cold December

1983-1984....25.4"...Cold January...

1971-1972-...22.9"...Cold February

1951-1952....19.7"...mild...

None of these were great winters...1992-93 had the largest snowstorm...22-23" is what I expect this year...maybe a lot of ice mixed in...

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that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday

 

Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging.

 

Yeah, not sure how he's getting the Weeklies this early. It was my understanding that they came out at 7:30 PM every Monday and Thursday. 

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that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday

Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging.

I hope we end up on the right side of the gradient. ( dec 2008)

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