IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Temps look to start out slightly above average for the first week of December. The models have been keying in on a coastal threat near the 5th however the low is modeled to be weak and we have a big trough along the west coast at that time. In the weenie range, the GFS has three separate southern stream threats. It's likely that our next threat will evolve during that time period. Overall the first part of December will start off with a negative PNA and split flow in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 GGEM/GFS models trended colder for a potential storm Day 6-7...Today's EURO looks like a hit for parts of NE, unsure of NYC/Philly...Temps have trended colder but still not sure of surface/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 GGEM/GFS models trended colder for a potential storm Day 6-7...Today's EURO looks like a hit for parts of NE, unsure of NYC/Philly...Temps have trended colder but still not sure of surface/precip. The ECMWF is pretty far south and east. It has norlun-type light event over CNJ and LI. But 2m temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The cold up in central Canada dropping down at the end of the Euro is pretty impressive. Sub -30 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Yesterday I really thought the first 15 days of Dec would b above normal in the east but the last 2 runs of the European OP and its ENS no longer advertizes that. That ridge in Alaska is relentless and it keeps sending the vortex south and east and even though the core of the cold is centered in the plains for the next 15 days its spreads east and we average normal at best if not below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 A rough guess for the first half of December is something like -1 to +1 with the coldest air relative to the means remaining west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 December 1869-2010 Central Park...there is a noticeable lack of single digit temperatures since the 1980's...decade..ave.temp..high..low...ave.max/min..max..min...precipitation...snowfall1870's......32.7......37.4......24.9....'.....................64......-2...2.88"...6.7"1880's......33.6......40.0......26.5......57.3.....7.9....67......-6...3.28"...7.1"1890's......35.9......42.3......29.9......58.8...12.0....66.......8...2.97"...4.3"1900's......34.8......38.9......30.3......57.1...13.6....64.......4...3.95"...6.2"1910's......34.1......39.4......25.0......59.4...10.8....64....-13...3.80"...7.5"1920's......35.5......42.0......28.9......59.0...13.2....68.......7...3.49"...4.2"1930's......35.9......41.0......30.0......61.2...11.7....68......-6...2.86"...4.3"1940's......35.4......39.4......31.0......59.5...11.7....70......-4...3.39"...9.1"1950's......36.8......41.3......29.4......59.7...12.0....67.......5...3.49"...4.7"1960's......34.8......40.5......30.9......61.6...12.9....68.......4...3.70"...7.4"1970's......37.4......41.1......29.9......61.6...17.6....67.......9...4.63"...1.7"1980's......36.6......43.8......25.9......61.0...11.8....72......-1...3.14"...2.1"1990's......39.5......43.2......32.4......64.0...16.5....75.....10...4.04"...2.9"2000's......37.7......44.1......31.1......62.9...16.6....71.....11...4.45"...7.8"2010's......39.0......43.3......32.8......63.7...22.0....71.....19...4.48"...7.3"1870-2009.........35.6.............................60.2...12.9....................3.58"...5.4"1980- 2009.........37.9.............................62.6...15.0....................3.88"...4.3"Coldest............warmest............wettest..........Driest......24.9 in 1876 ... 44.1 in 2001 ... 9.98" in 1973 ... 0.25" in 195525.0 in 1917 ... 43.8 in 1984 ... 9.77" in 1983 ... 0.58" in 198025.9 in 1989 ... 43.6 in 2006 ... 7.53" in 1936 ... 0.68" in 187726.5 in 1880 ... 43.3 in 2011 ... 7.27" in 2009 ... 0.83" in 198926.7 in 1872 ... 43.2 in 1998 ... 7.07" in 1969 ... 0.83" in 198528.9 in 1926 ... 42.8 in 1982 ... 7.01" in 1901 ... 0.98" in 192829.2 in 1871 ... 42.6 in 1990 ... 6.77" in 1902 ... 1.12" in 199829.4 in 1958 ... 42.3 in 1891 ... 6.62" in 2008 ... 1.13" in 198829.6 in 1886 ... 42.2 in 1994 ... 6.48" in 1996 ... 1.13" in 189629.7 in 1955 ... 42.0 in 1923 ... 6.33" in 1974 ... 1.20" in 1943Warmest temperatures...75 1998 12/774 1998 12/472 1982 12/471 2001 12/6 71 2013 12/2270 1946 12/1070 2006 12/170 2001 12/570 1984 12/29Coldest temperatures...-13 1917 12/30-7 1917 12/31-6 1917 12/29-6 1880 12/30-6 1933 12/30-4 1942 12/20-3 1884 12/20-3 1933 12/29-3 1880 12/31Coldest monthly max...47 in 191749 in 187649 in 188049 in 189049 in 1926Warmest monthly min...28 in 201226 in 197425 in 198424 in 190823 in 192322 in 190722 in 191822 in 2011Greatest monthly snow...29.6" in 194727.0" in 187225.3" in 194822.5" in 188320.1" in 201019.8" in 200318.6" in 196015.8" in 195915.6" in 194514.9" in 193314.5" in 1916Biggest snowfalls...26.4" 1947 12/26-2720.0" 2010 12/26-2718.0" 1872 12/2616.0" 1948 12/19-2015.2" 1960 12/11-1214.0" 2003 12/5-713.7" 1959 12/21-2212.7" 1916 12/1512.0" 2000 12/3011.4" 1912 12/2411.2" 1933 12/2610.9" 2009 12/19-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Watch for the possibility of the day 6 threat to positively impact the day 10 threat for us . Last winter the european had 2 scenarios in its day 10 that drove a system to the lakes in its day 8 thru 10 that in the end bellied under as we got closer. JB did opine the day 6 system mayb able to drag the frontal boundary closer to the coast and not have the trough buckle in the Midwest but come all the way east wana credit where I read it . The negative to the idea is there's no block , so there's not as much resistance as one would like too see. Just something to watch after the day 6 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Watch for the possibility of the day 6 threat to positively impact the day 10 threat for us . Last winter the european had 2 scenarios in its day 10 that drove a system to the lakes in its day 8 thru 10 that in the end bellied under as we got closer. JB did opine the day 6 system mayb able to drag the frontal boundary closer to the coast and not have the trough buckle in the Midwest but come all the way east wana credit where I read it . The negative to the idea is there's no block , so there's not as much resistance as one would like too see. Just something to watch after the day 6 threat. With -EPO dominated Decembers like we saw in 2008, we can still get a moderate snowfall event at some point next month if things break in our favor. A moderate snow like 12-19-08 could always pop up if we get lucky. It's just that you would want a strong Atlantic blocking pattern for a Boxing Day or Millennium style storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I'm looking foward to a more normal December with maybe some snow for Christmas...Last year we got snow flakes Christmas eve...This year could be a lot colder...It could mean a lot of ice...TWT...Back in December 1951 there was a period of cold waves and rain storms...One storm managed to stay snow and sleet and accumulate to 3.3"...The next two were classic inland runners with all rain...1951 dailies... date...max...min...rain...snow 13th.....30.....25...0.01.....T 14th.....34.....21.....0........0 15th.....39.....20...0.86...3.3 16th.....20.....11.....0........0 17th.....20.......8.....0........0 18th.....25.......9.....0........0 19th.....48.....22...1.10.....0 20th.....27.....18.....0........0 21st.....57.....22...1.35.....0 22nd....52.....30.....T........0 23rd.....33.....26.....0........0 what a waste of cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 With -EPO dominated Decembers like we saw in 2008, we can still get a moderate snowfall event at some point next month if things break in our favor. A moderate snow like 12-19-08 could always pop up if we get lucky. It's just that you would want a strong Atlantic blocking pattern for a Boxing Day or Millennium style storm. 08.png He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side. Easterly winds on the coast in the mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp . The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east Helping the follower I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake. 925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot . Those are killers without blocking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side. Easterly winds on the coast in the mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp . The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east Helping the follower I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake. 925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot . Those are killers without blocking . Storm details beyond day 5 are always a bit of a roll of the dice. I was commenting more on what the general December theme may look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 He was thinking more along the lines of a toss up on the coast ( I always leans towards rain ) in t when there's no blocking on the Atlantic side. Easterly winds on the coasthe mid latitudes just kill u And more snow just into the interior So a closer call For the Hudson valley and NNJ pp . The euro has a storm to the lakes so its in a different zip code but I see where he thnks tues system can drag the boundary east Helping the follower I thnk back to last Dec a system ran to the BM 850 s were minus 1 it was 33 at the surface and not a flake. 925 mb temps were plus 3 And zero fell in CN or up on the north shore of LI , CT got a foot . Those are killers without blocking . that's what happened in December 1951...The AO was plus all month and big time at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Weeklies show the entire country flooded with warm air, coast to coast, toast to toast for second halve of December. Comments? There is no sign that "MissPolarVortex" will drop her skirt for us. Ref. 'StormVista' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Weeklies show the entire country flooded with warm air, coast to coast, toast to toast for second halve of December. Comments? There is no sign that "MissPolarVortex" will drop her skirt for us. Ref. 'StormVista' Warmth, likely due to Euro ensembles taking the MJO into warmer phases 3 and 4 in December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Just for fun, I put together a list of winter snowfall analogs for Decembers with a -EPO/+NAO/+AO pattern. 2008-2009.....27.6" 1992-1993.....24.5" 1990-1991.....24.9" 1989-1990....13.4" 1983-1984....25.4" 1971-1972-...22.9" 1951-1952....19.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Any thoughts about that storm on the euro for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Any thoughts about that storm on the euro for next week? NAO is forecasted to be negative early next week - and then take a sharp turn towards positive territory - definite east coast storm signal http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Any thoughts about that storm on the euro for next week? We need the kicker coming across Hudson Bay to be a little weaker so the low will track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 We need the kicker coming across Hudson Bay to be a little weaker so the low will track closer to the coast. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_120.gif It looks like a coastal scraper/norlun-type trough at best to me. Bl temps may still be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Warmth, likely due to Euro ensembles taking the MJO into warmer phases 3 and 4 in December: Phase 3 isn't that warm of an MJO phase for us. If the MJO goes into 4-7, then we might be dealing with more warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Weeklies show the entire country flooded with warm air, coast to coast, toast to toast for second halve of December. Comments? There is no sign that "MissPolarVortex" will drop her skirt for us. Ref. 'StormVista' that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. I haven't seen the Euro weeklies yet. But they come out every Monday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 They were cold just a few days ago...give it time I'm sure it will change again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 They were cold just a few days ago...give it time I'm sure it will change again! This is why I don't get excited nor displeased at any long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 It's hard to get excited about this pattern though, and if the MJO is correct in moving into phases 3 and 4 then it will turn milder by mid month. The pattern strongly favors the west while we remain devoid of blocking. There's still a struggle to move that cold east. I definitely feel this is going to be a late starting winter especially if a weak El Niño develops later on along with a falling QBO as some METS have stated. The best winter weather could be February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 This is why I don't get excited nor displeased at any long range forecast. I don't even look because it changes so much in a week to ten days out...I get the play by play in here..I give a lot of weight to analogs that are in sinc with the pattern we are seeing...The AO was down a bit today...It's still on the plus side but barely...It was forecast to sharply rise...Bluewave through out some interesting analogs 1951-52 especially because it had a very positive ao throughout the month of December... 2008-2009.....27.6"...cold January 1992-1993.....24.5"...cold February 1990-1991.....24.9"...mild.. 1989-1990....13.4"...cold December 1983-1984....25.4"...Cold January... 1971-1972-...22.9"...Cold February 1951-1952....19.7"...mild... None of these were great winters...1992-93 had the largest snowstorm...22-23" is what I expect this year...maybe a lot of ice mixed in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. Yeah, not sure how he's getting the Weeklies this early. It was my understanding that they came out at 7:30 PM every Monday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 that is totally inaccurate ..quote from CoastalWX on NE board from Monday Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. I hope we end up on the right side of the gradient. ( dec 2008) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The weeklies were fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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