Sat / Sun Light Snow Event?

[Johnno]

Yeah CT DOT relies entirely on private wx forecasts. Not sure what vendor they use.

I was curious so I just looked up the contract they use Northwest Weather Net located in Washington state.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

As expected.

Yup, was down to 26 when I went to bed last night, figured we may be able too see some flakes to start, but it warmed up quick

[dryslot]

Looks nice up there on Web cams. Congrats

 

Not bad on the home cam either......

 

[dryslot]

The Maine DOT cams have great high resolution.........

 

[MGorse]

Yeah CT DOT relies entirely on private wx forecasts. Not sure what vendor they use. 

 

I wondered if they still did. When I worked at AccuWeather several years ago one of the clients was CT DOT. I read above that another private weather company now forecasts for them.

 

By the way, they do not use the NWS forecasts/products at all?

[MaineJayhawk]

Not bad on the home cam either......

 

LOL .. I thought the same thing when I read Ginx's post, so I snapped a shot also.

[dryslot]

LOL .. I thought the same thing when I read Ginx's post, so I snapped a shot also.

2013-12-01 11.09.52-1.jpg

 

Nice, Looks like 12z Nam and GFS kicked the qpf totals up a notch for here with the sw a hair further west

[CT Rain]

I wondered if they still did. When I worked at AccuWeather several years ago one of the clients was CT DOT. I read above that another private weather company now forecasts for them.

By the way, they do not use the NWS forecasts/products at all?

I'm pretty sure all decisions they make are based off private forecasts. State emergency mgmt office uses NWS products but I don't think there's much overlap between EM and DOT here.

[CapturedNature]

Yeah CT DOT relies entirely on private wx forecasts. Not sure what vendor they use. 

 

I find that hard to believe.  If the private company says that there may be icing but there is no advisory wouldn't they react a little differently than hearing that there may be icing and there IS an advisory?  I'm sure that they get data and forecasts from private companies but I'm also sure that at some level there is some credence paid to advisories, watches or warnings issued by the NWS.  If they don't, they're missing part of the picture from a legal perspective.

[MGorse]

I'm pretty sure all decisions they make are based off private forecasts. State emergency mgmt office uses NWS products but I don't think there's much overlap between EM and DOT here.

 

Rather interesting!

[CT Rain]

I find that hard to believe. If the private company says that there may be icing but there is no advisory wouldn't they react a little differently than hearing that there may be icing and there IS an advisory? I'm sure that they get data and forecasts from private companies but I'm also sure that at some level there is some credence paid to advisories, watches or warnings issued by the NWS. If they don't, they're missing part of the picture from a legal perspective.

Every story I've done with the DOT they've always talked about their private forecasts and new technology they use to forecast road conditions. I've never heard them even mention a NWS forecast or product. Not sure why they would either if they're spending a lot of money for customized forecasts.

[powderfreak]

Nice, Looks like 12z Nam and GFS kicked the qpf totals up a notch for here with the sw a hair further west

Congrats you two over there in Maine. Looks nice, lay down some snow cover.

[powderfreak]

I find that hard to believe. If the private company says that there may be icing but there is no advisory wouldn't they react a little differently than hearing that there may be icing and there IS an advisory? I'm sure that they get data and forecasts from private companies but I'm also sure that at some level there is some credence paid to advisories, watches or warnings issued by the NWS. If they don't, they're missing part of the picture from a legal perspective.

The VT AOT (Agency of Transport.) uses private forecasts too and I know some of the Lyndon State met students forecast for them (CTsnowstorm would know more), but I'm pretty sure they go with those forecasts.

I'd find it hard to believe someone that works in such a weather intensive business like transportation does not look at NWS forecasts/discussions. I mean I'd think in a field (like winter road maintenance) where lives can be lost by poor wx-related decisions, you'd take all the opinions/forecasts you can get.

[CapturedNature]

Every story I've done with the DOT they've always talked about their private forecasts and new technology they use to forecast road conditions. I've never heard them even mention a NWS forecast or product. Not sure why they would either if they're spending a lot of money for customized forecasts.

 

I agree that if they are paying a source to supply them with data and forecasts that they don't have to rely on the NWS for forecasts or data.  My point was specific to the question of why roads weren't pretreated and that perhaps they would have reacted differently IF the freezing rain advisory was issued BEFORE the icing occurred.  I just find it hard to believe that they are operating in a vacuum and aren't aware of advisories if they exist and they don't take them into consideration.  Back when I was in the business in the early 90s I always advised my clients on any advisories, watches or warning in effect before giving my specific forecast.  I am quite sure that the existing of one played into their planning one way or another.  In this case, I'm sure that the DOTs received private forecasts and if a freezing rain advisory had existed, that someone may have made a different decision than they did.

[MGorse]

I agree that if they are paying a source to supply them with data and forecasts that they don't have to rely on the NWS for forecasts or data.  My point was specific to the question of why roads weren't pretreated and that perhaps they would have reacted differently IF the freezing rain advisory was issued BEFORE the icing occurred.  I just find it hard to believe that they are operating in a vacuum and aren't aware of advisories if they exist and they don't take them into consideration.  Back when I was in the business in the early 90s I always advised my clients on any advisories, watches or warning in effect before giving my specific forecast.  I am quite sure that the existing of one played into their planning one way or another.  In this case, I'm sure that the DOTs received private forecasts and if a freezing rain advisory had existed, that someone may have made a different decision than they did.

 

Based on what occurred, more than likely this was not forecast since the road crews were not out treating.

[N. OF PIKE]

They should sand if there is AnY chance of freezing drizzle/ sprinkles the nite before. Anything else is incompetent and just excuses if they dont acknowledge that. They can't blame private forecasters lol, that seems weak to me, it is their job to do what works to have the most knowledge . Wether one vendor or more is best route, depends on the vendor but nobody makes you stick w a vendor that doesnt comprehend the risks enuf to mention the potential for icy roads in isolated parts this morning should NOT be the sole information relied upon

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was surprised to have encountered quite a slippery landscape, as I departed from the gf's house early this morning........quite the little icing event in these parts.

Arrived home to see my Davis pinned at 30.0/27.

 

Since risen to 33.6/32

[powderfreak]

Ahhh, in today's age, there must always be someone to blame. Heck why not blame the public for leaving their driveway if that was slick? There are some things that you just don't prepare for...a 15-25 minute freezing rain shower is probably one of them. I mean I didn't hear anyone on here last night moaning because they knew a horrible morning was en-route and they didn't see the salt trucks out.

If Blizz said trucks should be out salting last night we would've laughed at him.

I use a private forecast each day that's usually a bit conservative on everything but icing. And usually those give you a probability of icing or what the icing threat level is.

I bet some private forecasting company had a chance of ice in the forecast, but you see a low chance of ice in the forecast many times a winter that doesn't pan out.

Why was this threat higher in everyone's minds, except for hindsight? Say DPW doesn't pre-treat unless there is a 50% or greater chance of icing...most of these types of things have some operational thresholds otherwise they'd be out salting all winter long for 30% chance of flurries...the private forecast had a 30% chance of icing, there's your problem. There's always going to be a gap where a low chance or low impact event has a small probability to be a big deal. You don't have the money to prepare for every little chance something might happen. On average, it'll work out for you. But you're going to once in a while get an event like this where that 30% chance of ice actually turned into a big deal.

Not sure if that makes any sense, but sh't happens. There may not always be someone to blame.

[Ginx snewx]

Every story I've done with the DOT they've always talked about their private forecasts and new technology they use to forecast road conditions. I've never heard them even mention a NWS forecast or product. Not sure why they would either if they're spending a lot of money for customized forecasts.

What is interesting to me is they are using an out of state firm. Couple of things, CT should be promoting in state businesses, local firms have intimate knowledge of local climo nuances. Perhaps poster KBC who works for DOT can chime in.

[TalcottWx]

Kevin, what time will the snow be breaking out across sne??? I've been waiting

[Ginx snewx]

I was surprised to have encountered quite a slippery landscape, as I departed from the gf's house early this morning........quite the little icing event in these parts.

Arrived home to see my Davis pinned at 30.0/27.

Since risen to 33.6/32

GF.? Nice' did you sneak out , lol? Road Icing is perhaps the biggest killer and damage inducing winter weather issue. It is and has been totally under forecast by all firms forever. Much more attention needs to be given to even issues like black ice.

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin, what time will the snow be breaking out across sne??? I've been waiting

There was snow overnight before the switch to freezing rain in many spots .

[Damage In Tolland]

There was snow overnight before the switch to freezing rain in many spots .

Yeah ..not sure if he thought it was going to snow where he is on the water or not..but this was always an interior deal..maybe he's gotr the events confused?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yesterday's cape snow was a bit of a dud but the icing over performed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kind of felt it would be as guidance warmed over the last couple days. Repeating theme thus far this early in the season. Messy systems with nothing able to lock in the cold. Me thinks this will be the theme for the winter and where that boundary sets up will make a world of difference. We were lucky in Nov to be able to cool off the SST around here so maybe we will be ok as we move towards mid month and beyond.

Funny you mention this....watching Harv the other night, I noted that he had the sst of Boston Harbor at 44*.....considering the time of year, and the absolutely torrid summer season that we had endured this year, I was surprised.

This, of course, provided the impetus to get the weenie-wheels in motion within my mind, and I began to fantasize about what that may entail for December here on the cp.

 

That sst reading at Boston light seemed about one month premature to me.....interesting.

[powderfreak]

What is interesting to me is they are using an out of state firm. Couple of things, CT should be promoting in state businesses, local firms have intimate knowledge of local climo nuances. Perhaps poster KBC who works for DOT can chime in.

I was surprised too if that's true that the CT DOT gets its forecasts from a company in Washington state. Do they have a met program at any school in the state? I like how the VT AOT uses the Lyndon State upperclassmen to supplement their forecasting needs...it's all at least in state and the local climo knowledge is probably a good thing to have.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thank god this wasn't a week day.

[CoastalWx]

Boston bouy and Stelwagen bank are 48 and 47 respectively. Still cool.

[N. OF PIKE]

Ahhh, in today's age, there must always be someone to blame. Heck why not blame the public for leaving their driveway if that was slick? There are some things that you just don't prepare for...a 15-25 minute freezing rain shower is probably one of them. I mean I didn't hear anyone on here last night moaning because they knew a horrible morning was en-route and they didn't see the salt trucks out.

If Blizz said trucks should be out salting last night we would've laughed at him.

I use a private forecast each day that's usually a bit conservative on everything but icing. And usually those give you a probability of icing or what the icing threat level is.

I bet some private forecasting company had a chance of ice in the forecast, but you see a low chance of ice in the forecast many times a winter that doesn't pan out.

Why was this threat higher in everyone's minds, except for hindsight? Say DPW doesn't pre-treat unless there is a 50% or greater chance of icing...most of these types of things have some operational thresholds otherwise they'd be out salting all winter long for 30% chance of flurries...the private forecast had a 30% chance of icing, there's your problem. There's always going to be a gap where a low chance or low impact event has a small probability to be a big deal. You don't have the money to prepare for every little chance something might happen. On average, it'll work out for you. But you're going to once in a while get an event like this where that 30% chance of ice actually turned into a big deal.

Not sure if that makes any sense, but sh't happens. There may not always be someone to blame.

Well pfreak in NNE everyone and their dog has AWD and every morning ice is pretty much a possibility and roads are generally not tended to for every small event (in my experience) . There is much higher population density in SNE and much less % vehicles w AWD. There is also far less mornings with frozen precip. I for one would not have laughed in least bit if someone mentioned salting /sanding roads last nite, it is probably 7-10x a year the threat exists for freezing drizzle/rain and it is worse than snow when u combine fact u cant see it and its ice. Forecasters should be more aware of the importance a frz drizzle scenario is imo , ESP wrt sne. It IS understandable why it flys under radar since its such a minor "pure weather" event and often does not have a big flashing" look at me" appearance on models.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yesterday's cape snow was a bit of a dud but the icing over performed.

seemed to all pretty much go as planned really.