Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E. initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday. Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front. maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E. initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday. Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front. maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals? nice, certainly bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E. initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday. Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front. maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals? Has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 should point out that scooter and will have been talking about this as well. just wanted to make a thread to keep it separate from the wednesday soaking and the follow-up cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 This is one of those events that will often not show up on the models until you get closer. Its sort of there now, but I wouldn't be shocked if it showed up a bit more impressive inside of 3 days. Obviously the synoptic setup needs to remain the same, but if it does, I think there's a shot at a small event for many. We saw a similar setup last year on December 1st produce an inch or so for many. The initial cold on this one might be a bit more impressive, so if the moisture flow gets established early enough, there could be some little surprises. Given the time range though and the mesoscale features likely associated with such a setup, it is way too early to discuss snow amounts. They would likely be pretty light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 How far inland does OES typically reach? 5-10 miles or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 This is one of those events that will often not show up on the models until you get closer. Its sort of there now, but I wouldn't be shocked if it showed up a bit more impressive inside of 3 days. Obviously the synoptic setup needs to remain the same, but if it does, I think there's a shot at a small event for many. We saw a similar setup last year on December 1st produce an inch or so for many. The initial cold on this one might be a bit more impressive, so if the moisture flow gets established early enough, there could be some little surprises. Given the time range though and the mesoscale features likely associated with such a setup, it is way too early to discuss snow amounts. They would likely be pretty light though. The more synoptic portion sure, but the oes part has been in the models for some time as the high pressure crested over New England. May be a recurrent thing this winter. My favorite type of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 love these cool, more local / mesoscale events .. although usually not significant impact wise, they are very interesting from a meteorological perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 How far inland does OES typically reach? 5-10 miles or so? Sometimes as the flow aloft turns east then southeast, I've seen it push 80 miles back because it acts as a cstl front turned warm front. There are a lot of mesoscale features such as WAA at 850 which may aid in seeder-feeder snow as well as WAA synoptic stuff, and also a little inv trough south of SNE that might develop a weak low and enhance precip. That's a complicated recipe that will take time to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 euro looks relatively "promising". obviously we won't be dealing with anything major but it does have some light qpf around when things should still be cold enough for frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 euro looks relatively "promising". obviously we won't be dealing with anything major but it does have some light qpf around when things should still be cold enough for frozen What kind of timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 What kind of timeframe? mainly during the day on sunday with the surface trough / weak WAA type stuff over your area. i think there may be some light snows around E sections fri nite / sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 mainly during the day on sunday with the surface trough / weak WAA type stuff over your area. i think there may be some light snows around E sections fri nite / sat Hopefully enough to tickle down 1-2 inches as we decorate the tree with lights so bright..and eat rice, stuffing macaroni and cheese, and put gifts under Christmas trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 euro looks relatively "promising". obviously we won't be dealing with anything major but it does have some light qpf around when things should still be cold enough for frozen Euro stays colder than other guidance in the mid-levels. It gets pretty interesting for that coastal afterward. Something that we'll have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro stays colder than other guidance in the mid-levels. It gets pretty interesting for that coastal afterward. Something that we'll have to watch. yeah especially out your way and pts N and W. it's pretty torched elsewhere but yeah you can even see the thickness values have lowered a bit. big rainer on the coast though...we're going to wipe away these rainfall deficits quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 GFS has a sneaky low at 129hr, brings some snow late sunday into Monday, is this the same system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 GFS has a sneaky low at 129hr, brings some snow late sunday into Monday, is this the same system? They're separate. The snow this thread refers to is something that models haven't quite gripped yet, but something that can develop in proceeding model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Some of my favorite light events have come from similar setups. Pretty sweet convergence sets up over my area sometimes. Euro depicts it pretty well today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Some of my favorite light events have come from similar setups. Pretty sweet convergence sets up over my area sometimes. Euro depicts it pretty well today . Yeah, i dont know why,but it seems that your area, or CT in general has been much cashing in on these 2-4, 3-6 inchers in addition to the biggies in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Snow to open met winter. What can be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Euro looks good for this Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Sunday Night and Monday may be pike north. Looks like snow to some ice..maybe even down to nrn CT, but it starts to furnace aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Not sure how good OES potential is aside from Cape Cod. I don't like having the high close by and inversion heights are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Not sure how good OES potential is aside from Cape Cod. I don't like having the high close by and inversion heights are low. It's really borderline. High is closer than I'd like...normally the better events here occur with a high a little further n/ne. Looks like a no go per the NAM. Will have to see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Let's lay down an inch or two like discussed and top it with ice and see what next week brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Not sure how good OES potential is aside from Cape Cod. I don't like having the high close by and inversion heights are low. still a few days to examine the potential but i'd be relatively surprised if it doesn't snow out here fri nite into sat for at least a little while. just seeing the RH fields in the soundings is good enough for me right now. and every now and then the GFS has some really light qpf showing up so that tends to be a nice clue. maybe after that it sort of bends around more e/w and drifts inland then dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 still a few days to examine the potential but i'd be relatively surprised if it doesn't snow out here fri nite into sat for at least a little while. just seeing the RH fields in the soundings is good enough for me right now. and every now and then the GFS has some really light qpf showing up so that tends to be a nice clue. maybe after that it sort of bends around more e/w and drifts inland then dissipates. I think it's better out there for sure as winds turn nrly and inversion heights are still high. Just nothing notable over PYM county perhaps until that pseudo cstl front moves west. We'll see..still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I'll take the 12Z trends thank you. Cold tuck ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 mon / tue event evolving into a snowstorm on the 12z euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 mon / tue event evolving into a snowstorm on the 12z euro. lol LOL, what the heck is it doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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