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Sat / Sun Light Snow Event?


Tropopause_Fold

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Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E.

 

initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday.

 

Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front.

 

maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals?

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Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E.

initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday.

Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front.

maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals?

nice, certainly bears watching.
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Looks like arctic high pressure will shift to the north of New England on Saturday and begin to turn the low-level flow around to the N, then NE and then E.

initially, this may help get some light ocean effect snow going on the Cape on Friday Night or Saturday.

Might have to watch for this stuff to morph into a bit of a more "widespread" light snow or freezing drizzle(?) as it heads inland along a pseudo-coastal front.

maybe some sneaky snows this weekend despite the underwhelming signals?

Has my attention

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This is one of those events that will often not show up on the models until you get closer. Its sort of there now, but I wouldn't be shocked if it showed up a bit more impressive inside of 3 days. Obviously the synoptic setup needs to remain the same, but if it does, I think there's a shot at a small event for many. We saw a similar setup last year on December 1st produce an inch or so for many.

 

The initial cold on this one might be a bit more impressive, so if the moisture flow gets established early enough, there could be some little surprises. Given the time range though and the mesoscale features likely associated with such a setup, it is way too early to discuss snow amounts. They would likely be pretty light though.

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This is one of those events that will often not show up on the models until you get closer. Its sort of there now, but I wouldn't be shocked if it showed up a bit more impressive inside of 3 days. Obviously the synoptic setup needs to remain the same, but if it does, I think there's a shot at a small event for many. We saw a similar setup last year on December 1st produce an inch or so for many.

The initial cold on this one might be a bit more impressive, so if the moisture flow gets established early enough, there could be some little surprises. Given the time range though and the mesoscale features likely associated with such a setup, it is way too early to discuss snow amounts. They would likely be pretty light though.

The more synoptic portion sure, but the oes part has been in the models for some time as the high pressure crested over New England. May be a recurrent thing this winter. My favorite type of snow.

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How far inland does OES typically reach? 5-10 miles or so?

 

Sometimes as the flow aloft turns east then southeast, I've seen it push 80 miles back because it acts as a cstl front turned warm front. There are a lot of mesoscale features such as WAA at 850 which may aid in seeder-feeder snow as well as WAA synoptic stuff, and also a little inv trough south of SNE that might develop a weak low and enhance precip. That's a complicated recipe that will take time to iron out. 

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mainly during the day on sunday with the surface trough / weak WAA type stuff over your area. i think there may be some light snows around E sections fri nite / sat

Hopefully enough to tickle down 1-2 inches as we decorate the tree with lights so bright..and eat rice, stuffing macaroni and cheese, and put gifts under Christmas trees

 

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euro looks relatively "promising". obviously we won't be dealing with anything major but it does have some light qpf around when things should still be cold enough for frozen

 

 

Euro stays colder than other guidance in the mid-levels. It gets pretty interesting for that coastal afterward. Something that we'll have to watch.

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Euro stays colder than other guidance in the mid-levels. It gets pretty interesting for that coastal afterward. Something that we'll have to watch.

yeah especially out your way and pts N and W. it's pretty torched elsewhere but yeah you can even see the thickness values have lowered a bit. big rainer on the coast though...we're going to wipe away these rainfall deficits quick.

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Some of my favorite light events have come from similar setups. Pretty sweet convergence sets up over my area sometimes. Euro depicts it pretty well today .

Yeah, i dont know why,but it seems that your area, or CT in general has been much cashing in on these 2-4, 3-6 inchers in addition to the biggies in recent years.

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Not sure how good OES potential is aside from Cape Cod. I don't like having the high close by and inversion heights are low.

still a few days to examine the potential but i'd be relatively surprised if it doesn't snow out here fri nite into sat for at least a little while. just seeing the RH fields in the soundings is good enough for me right now. and every now and then the GFS has some really light qpf showing up so that tends to be a nice clue. maybe after that it sort of bends around more e/w and drifts inland then dissipates. 

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still a few days to examine the potential but i'd be relatively surprised if it doesn't snow out here fri nite into sat for at least a little while. just seeing the RH fields in the soundings is good enough for me right now. and every now and then the GFS has some really light qpf showing up so that tends to be a nice clue. maybe after that it sort of bends around more e/w and drifts inland then dissipates. 

 

I think it's better out there for sure as winds turn nrly and inversion heights are still high. Just nothing notable over PYM county perhaps until that pseudo cstl front moves west. We'll see..still have time.

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