BretWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Flurries turning more into sleet here in Long Island City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 The 12z SPC WRF has two distinct periods of rain. One burst of heavy rain tonight followed by a brief period of showery weather and then steady rain again tomorrow for most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 some flurries here in Hawthorne, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Some of the river rise forecasts have been increased. Many area rivers are now forecasting crests just below action stage. A few are forecasting minor flooding now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Thank god this isnt a winter storm, I would be going ape sh*t right now haha flurries started 10 minutes ago, now nothing. Temp:40 DP:22 Humidity:51% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Some of the river rise forecasts have been increased. Many area rivers are now forecasting crests just below action stage. A few are forecasting minor flooding now those flood if you spit into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 A few flurries here in Hastings-on-Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Drizzling right now in Times Square Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 those flood if you spit into them. All of the smaller rivers show about the same thing. I just cherry picked those two out as an example. I think some of the flashier small rivers and streams could have some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 SREF's definitely ticked a hair NW 15z. Brings 2.5"+ from I-78 north and then east into all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 my temp has dropped down to 37 from a high of 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z NAM is holding serve. Focuses the heaviest rain right over NE NJ and into NYC. Close to 2" per 3 hour rates at hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 After the very heavy rain tomorrow morning the 4k NAM shows steady rain moving back in at hour 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z NAM is holding serve. Focuses the heaviest rain right over NE NJ and into NYC. Close to 2" per 3 hour rates at hour 18. The morning commute tomorrow looks horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 The morning commute tomorrow looks horrendous. Agreed If you want to believe the 18z 4k NAM rain doesn't wrap up until well after dark tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z NAM is holding serve. Focuses the heaviest rain right over NE NJ and into NYC. Close to 2" per 3 hour rates at hour 18. that's an amazing rainfall rate if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 This is cruel. Light Rain Temp:35 DP:30 Humidity:85% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Mt. Holly has hoisted Flood Watches Flood Watch FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ343 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...A STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEZ001-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-270930-/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0003.131127T0000Z-131127T1800Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NEW CASTLE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN343 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN... GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS... NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM AND SOMERSET. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...LOWER BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS... WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.* FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON* HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AXIS POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH HIGHER ISOLATED AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS RAINFALL MAY FALL WITHIN A 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AND NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO FLOOD.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Updated map for Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Updated map for Upton It fits well with recent dry periods ending in a very wet way. I would lean with the wetter guidance basd on that and this looks like a very robust and juicy system. Looks like we should clear out by or during the afternono commute home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 It fits well with recent dry periods ending in a very wet way. I would lean with the wetter guidance basd on that and this looks like a very robust and juicy system. Looks like we should clear out by or during the afternono commute home. The 4k NAM ends the rain at 23z Wed. These systems do tend to move out a bit faster than modeled. I would think we clear out just before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Upton following suit and hoisting flood watches Flood WatchFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY402 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-271030-/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0003.131127T0500Z-131127T2300Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-402 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...* FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT...PASSING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.* RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY...IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AT A TIME WHEN MANY HOLIDAY TRAVELERS MAY ALREADY BE HEADING TO THEIR DESTINATIONS. MANY SMALL STREAMS WILL APPROACH BANK FULL...AND SOME MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BEALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TOFLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODINGDEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 18z NAM bufkit numbers for those interested KLGA - 3.98" KMMU - 3.66" KHPN - 3.78" KSWF - 2.02" KJFK - 3.96" KISP - 3.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It fits well with recent dry periods ending in a very wet way. I would lean with the wetter guidance basd on that and this looks like a very robust and juicy system. Looks like we should clear out by or during the afternono commute home. Yep. Should be out of here by 12pm tomorrow. No second low prolonging it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 The 18z GFS is coming in closer to the coast with the heavy rain axis than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Second batch of heavy rain working northward through VA at hour 21. Finally starting to get a consensus between the NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS bulls-eye NE NJ and NYC with the heaviest rainfall valid 09z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Hour 27, it's not a secondary low so to speak, more like a stalling and deepening of the initial low. Sub 988mb now over New England which deepens to 984 over Maine. Again wrap around snow or white rain possible verbatim to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Final numbers are 1.75"+ for all areas. It's like a less intense version of the NAM and the Euro. Things slowly wrap up from south to north around this time tomorrow, maybe a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Yep. Should be out of here by 12pm tomorrow. No second low prolonging it So which model are you basing this off of now? The NAM, GFS and Euro all have precip ending after 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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