Pre-Thanksgiving Sou'easter Observation and Nowcasting Thread

[Snowlover11]

Oh okay, I think an advisory in this case will handle 95% of the area quite nicely. Besides, most of the general public has no clue what the difference is anyway.

Yeah a HWW is a little overboard will everyone get strong gusts here and there, yeah. The strongest winds will be on the coast and offshore.

[IsentropicLift]

Who cares if he likes to post on this forum all day,

Thank you.

 

Plenty of people post as much or more than me daily.

 

The 12z RGEM still looks juicy.

 

[IsentropicLift]

It is the typical reaction of folks who are ticked that we had record-breaking cold the last two days and now all we will get is rain. Sad how people cannot just appreciate a storm without snow. It is November folks and to be disappointed that we are getting mainly rain even with this kind of cold just preceding the arrival of this system is absurd.

November is not a winter month in NYC. If we do manage to get a significant snow event it's the exception instead of the norm. More exists in weather besides severe thunderstorms and blizzards.

[MJO812]

November is not a winter month in NYC. If we do manage to get a significant snow event it's the exception instead of the norm. More exists in weather besides severe thunderstorms and blizzards.

It's also hard to get snow in early December. We have snow in early december in the past but it's not that common.

[Brian5671]

a bit off topic, but if you didnt know anything, you'd think a big snow was coming-slate gray sky, temps in the mid 30's-just has that feel.

[MJO812]

a bit off topic, but if you didnt know anything, you'd think a big snow was coming-slate gray sky, temps in the mid 30's-just has that feel.

And also by looking at the radar.  It's a good sign that we are getting a storm this big that originated from the gulf.

[IsentropicLift]

It's also hard to get snow in early December. We have snow in early december in the past but it's not that common.

I hope the cold of the past two days stands out as a reminder that even the coldest preceding air masses can yield rainstorms. We could be cold and dry with temps in the 20's for two straight weeks and then you get a setup like today and we'll get 50's and rain. This could have actually been a very ugly icing situation if we had a CAD high to the north. The 850 temps torch and the surface stays cold.

[HailMan06]

Currently snowing in Branchburg, NJ.

[FPizz]

Light snow in piscataway

[Snowlover11]

Rain or snow anything at this time is exciting to track, With the pattern we been in it's pretty amazing that we could get significant moisture... After not seeing any significant precipitation in a while.

[IsentropicLift]

That area of precip over eastern PA is blooming nicely. We might all get a few more flakes before temps get too warm.

[Snow_Miser]

Lightly snowing now.

[Snowlover11]

Temp:38

DP:15

Humidity:38%

[Brian5671]

I hope the cold of the past two days stands out as a reminder that even the coldest preceding air masses can yield rainstorms. We could be cold and dry with temps in the 20's for two straight weeks and then you get a setup like today and we'll get 50's and rain. This could have actually been a very ugly icing situation if we had a CAD high to the north. The 850 temps torch and the surface stays cold.

if you look at the winter of 76-77-it featured some of the coldest airmasses, but rainstorms in between.  Horrible.

[IsentropicLift]

if you look at the winter of 76-77-it featured some of the coldest airmasses, but rainstorms in between.  Horrible.

That's why I never understood the point in rooting for cold and dry. All that does is cause higher heating bills and blistering skin.

[doncat]

To show how dry its been this fall... even if we get 2.50 in. of rain it will still be my stations driest fall in 32 years of record.

[snywx]

That area of precip over eastern PA is blooming nicely. We might all get a few more flakes before temps get too warm.

 

Many areas above 1000' here are close to 1" already, My sons school is having an early dismissal @ 12pm. The way the radar is looking would not be surprised to see reports of 1-2" throughout Sussex/Orange counties before the change over

[Brian5671]

To show how dry its been this fall... even if we get 2.50 in. of rain it will still be my stations driest fall in 32 years of record.

that's the one bummer here, we're going to miss the driest fall by 3-4 days....would have been nice to set a record for futility

[Absolute Humidity]

Light pixi dust snow in Somerset county.

[Brian5671]

39/20 here, overcast

[IsentropicLift]

A few reports from the mid-atlantic forum of a lot of freezing rain. I wonder if the models are warming the surface too fast.

[Allsnow]

Sleet in hazlet

[Allsnow]

That's why I never understood the point in rooting for cold and dry. All that does is cause higher heating bills and blistering skin.

There is not blocking or neg nao to keep the cold lock in. With this pattern the cold will be in and out, unless we get a perfect storm track

[96blizz]

31 and very light snow falling again in southern Sussex, NJ.  Elevation 890'.

[SVT450R]

Very light snow.

[IsentropicLift]

There is not blocking or neg nao to keep the cold lock in. With this pattern the cold will be in and out, unless we get a perfect storm track

The point is that it could have been below zero yesterday and the end result today would have still been mainly rain.

[IsentropicLift]

[SVT450R]

Light snow/sleet mix.

[TwcMan]

Light snow/sleet here in avenel

[StatenWx]

Sleeting here on Staten Island.