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Pre-Thanksgiving Sou'easter Observation and Nowcasting Thread


IsentropicLift

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In case anyone is wondering, it would appear the GFS is verifying better than the NAM QPF-wise this afternoon... 

 

 

Yeah it seemed the echoes turn out to be more showery in nature, nothing like the nam huge totals for today.

 

allentown and lancaster reporting light snow

 

 

mod snow scranton

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great post by ray 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, NAM tends to be extra juiced, but the differences between the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM for just this afternoon were laughable...  for example, 0.07" versus 0.46" @ TTN (cuz that's where I always look first  ;) ).  While the GFS is gonna come out a little dry... certainly WAY closer to the actual total than the ridiculous NAM.  But I know some people got really excited that the juiced NAM total might mean an accumulating snow this afternoon... hence why I mention it.

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Looks like things are wrapping up back at my parents in Ewing... 2.78" of liquid with a trace of sleet/snow at the beginning and end.

Looks like a solid 2-4" across all of NJ, eastern PA and the NYC metro area, except for SE NJ (Cape May/Cumberland/Atlantic/Ocean) and eastern LI, which got only 1-2" of rain.  I'd say that matched the general 2-3" or 2-4" forecasts from the NWS in Philly/NYC pretty well and probably broke some records in many places (looks like the NB record was 2.2").  On another board I participate in people are trying to say this storm "underperformed" and I just don't see it.  Winds might have been a bit lighter than expected, but even there, plenty of coastal locations with gusts from 40-55 mph.  Thoughts? 

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It underperformed if you bought the juiced NAM totals hook, line and sinker.  Otherwise, it shouldn't feel like it underperformed.  I said (to Forky, privately) that I'd be impressed if my parents broke 2", and they did.

 

This was probably one of the longer recent gaps between 2"+ events at NYC after the last heavy rain all the way back in June.

 

CENTRAL PARK 4.77 300 AM 6/08 ASOS

 

CENTRAL PARK 2.44 320 PM 11/27 ASOS

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Looks like a solid 2-4" across all of NJ, eastern PA and the NYC metro area, except for SE NJ (Cape May/Cumberland/Atlantic/Ocean) and eastern LI, which got only 1-2" of rain. I'd say that matched the general 2-3" or 2-4" forecasts from the NWS in Philly/NYC pretty well and probably broke some records in many places (looks like the NB record was 2.2"). On another board I participate in people are trying to say this storm "underperformed" and I just don't see it. Winds might have been a bit lighter than expected, but even there, plenty of coastal locations with gusts from 40-55 mph. Thoughts?

This storm turned out to be very well forecasted. If you believed the NAM or hold on to forecasts from 48 hours ago then yea you'd say the reality was less rain. There's always going to be one or two locales that get slightly shafted or slightly jackpotted.

Look at Earthlight is March 2009. All of us got our forecasted 8-12 but somehow he only got like 5 or 6. That was the last time a storm ever underperformed for him btw.

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Look at Earthlight is March 2009. All of us got our forecasted 8-12 but somehow he only got like 5 or 6. That was the last time a storm ever underperformed for him btw.

we were in between frontogenesis bands. dec 09 underperformed here too with all the dry air eating the northern edge
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