December 2013 temperature forecast contest **with annual scores**

[Isotherm]

I agree, DEN would be a nice 'challenge', to say the least. Only problem I see is maybe a few not wanting to keep up with 9. Of course when it was pushed out to 6 a few thought the same way, and it has turned out fine.

The question becomes do YOU want to keep up with more?

I enjoy the game, and appreciate you doing the scoring!

 

 

Agree. I think it would be fun to throw in a few more spots. Roger does a very good job running this contest.

[DerekZ]

DCA.......NYC.......BOS........ORD.......ATL.......IAH

-2.1.......-2.1.......-2.4.........-1.1......-1.9.......-1.0

[uncle W]

we should have precipitation in the forecast... also snowfall if in season...

[Roger Smith]

I think it would be good to have a precip contest, perhaps it should be run separately? Maybe by another person? As for snowfall, the regional forums have contests up and running (as you may know) and if not, there's time for them to start one. The Lakes/OV forum has a contest that includes most of the major cities in the Midwest, but entries were due Nov 1st. I am a regular participant in an off-forum snowfall contest that has a few other familiar names (you can check it out), at this address, and as it happens, they extended the deadline from Dec 1 to Dec 7 to get a few additional entries. This site also runs storm forecast contests.

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

 

(when there, click on weblog to see more information)

 

If nobody happens to start up a precip contest before New Years, I may make the bonus question for either Jan or Feb something to do with precip. We're already doing a snowfall bonus as you know.

 

I run a contest on the equivalent Irish weather forum and we do Irish mean temp, extreme (national) max, min, precip %, sunshine % and a bonus question every month. In the UK on Net-weather, the main contest (which I don't organize) is one monthly guess, for the "CET" value. To give you some idea of how this contest might grow here, in Ireland we attract 35-40 entrants and in the UK they have 80-100 each month. As those forums are of similar size to this and national populations are less, one supposes that we could have 200 or even 300 entries and if that ever happened, I would have to get my act together and operate directly off a form and excel program.

 

That is in fact my plan for 2014 (at least the Excel part) so we'll see how this develops.

[Roger Smith]

After six days, with much colder weather setting in:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

+5.7 _ +5.7 _ +3.6 ____ +3.3 _ +9.9 _ +5.4

[Roger Smith]

First Snowfall bonus contest

 

 

With 0.4" reported at ORD on Nov 11 , 0.4" at ATL on Nov 27,  0.1" at BOS on Dec 7, then 0.6" at DCA Dec 8 and 0.1" at NYC, points are awarded as shown in the table below. Numbers shown for IAH are predicted snowfall dates, -- there means no measurable snow expected.

 

Points for IAH will be 10 for all "no snow" forecasts if that's the case, otherwise, points from 10 down to 4 will go to the seven who predicted snow there.

 

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_ IAH______ Points ___ Day errors ___ Ranks (top 10)

 

GD0815 ______________  08....04....18....12....04...77............... 46 ........... 90 ______10,7t

DerekZ _______________ 02....15....08....16.....--.....--............... 41 ......... 200  ______

stebo ________________ 14....02....03....12....04....--............... 35 ........... 97  ______ --,10

uncle W ______________ 07....06....07....08....05....75.............. 33 .......... 100  ______ --,

metalicwx366 __________17....17....13....03.....--.....--............... 50 ......... 166  ______ 5,--

bkviking ______________ 05....04....12....00....02....--............... 23 .......... 116  ______

blazess556 ____________ 16....08....04....12.....--.....--............... 40 ......... 175  ______

Isotherm ______________ 14....06....07....09.....--.....--............... 36 ......... 179  ______

Inudaw _______________ 14....20....19....01....01.....--............... 55 ........... 88  ______ 2,6

goobagooba ___________ 20....11....01....16....01....54............... 49 ........... 85  ______ 6,4

 

Consensus _____________ 10....20....07....08....01....--............... 46 ........... 98  ______ 9,11

 

Midlo_Snow_Maker ______ 19....19....12....08....01....--............... 59 ........... 86  ______ 1,5

Tom __________________ 11....13....16....04....01....--............... 45 ........... 97  ______ 11,10

SD ___________________ 19....07....02....18....07....80............... 53 ........... 77  ______ 3,2

Wx Hype ______________ 01....17....12....08.....--.....--............... 38 .......... 292  ______

wxdude64 _____________ 10....11....01....14....09....72............... 45 .......... 81  ______  11,3

donsutherland.1 ________ 09....09....16....00.....--.....--............... 34 ...........186  ______

hudsonvalley21 _________ 03....15....16....08....06....82.............. 48 ........... 90  ______ 7,7t

Chicago Storm __________15....19....07....03....08....--............... 52 ........... 73  ______ 4,1

 

Normal ________________ 14....20....13....12....01.....--.............. 60 ........... 94  ______ 1,9

 

Roger Smith ___________ 05....01....00...13....10.....88.............. 29 ........... 95  ______ --, 9

RodneyS ______________ 06....13....09...18....01....--................ 47 ........... 115  ______ 8,--

 

 

___________________________________________________________

 

 

This table is now complete for all but IAH, and that will determine our winner(s) in each category, points and total day errors ... here's how it could finish from current point totals and cumulative day errors:

 

If there is no snow at IAH, Normal would continue to lead and therefore win the points race with 70. Among our leading forecasters, Midlo Snow Maker is set to win "high human" with 69 (if no snow at IAH). Also, Inudaw and Chicago Storm would move up with ten points from no snow. Otherwise, SD can win on points if it first snows within about a week of his forecast of Jan 19th. He needs to finish third or better to overtake normal and Midlo. Goobagooba will win on points if it snows before Jan 10th at IAH.

 

As far as accumulated day error, no snow will seal the deal for Chicago Storm, while any snow before March 1st gives SD the edge, unless it comes between Jan 2nd and Jan 15th, then Wxdude64 would score fewer points and win. A snowfall at IAH before New Years Day would give goobagooba the win on day errors. I don't think anyone else has a mathematical chance of finishing first.

[Roger Smith]

The anomalies have taken a severe drop since the previous report, currently after 9 days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

 

+1.6 __ +1.8 __ +1.4 ___ --2.4 __ +7.6 __ --1.6

 

after ten days ...

 

+0.9 __ +1.1 __ +0.5 ___ --4.1 __ +6.4 __ --2.8

 

now going into free fall ... (after 11 days)

 

+0.2 __ +0.2 __ --0.2 ___ --5.5 __ +5.5 __ --3.6

 

the horror, the horror (after 12 days)

 

--0.6 __ --0.8 __ --1.3 ___ --6.8 __ +4.4 __ --4.0

 

and then after 13 days ...

 

--0.9 __ --1.4 __ --2.2 ___ --6.7 __ +3.8 __ --4.3

[Roger Smith]

New post, same theme as the last one ... daily countdown underway, only NYC and BOS continued to drop on the 14th as the Miller B storm brought limited warmings elsewhere, although IAH was already sliding back down below normal during the day.

 

15th brought a fresh surge of colder air to all but DCA and this trend looks set to continue today, updates daily ...

 

16th could mark a low point for most, as warmer conditions are modelled for several days, but a cold surge returns a few days later. (BOS dropped a bit further on a snowy 17th)

 

19th, with a warmer three days ahead, will probably start a countdown post tomorrow and file this one. Some fairly promising forecasts if this warm surge doesn't push numbers too high in the eastern three and ATL. Much will depend on how cold it gets after the 23rd and the end of this warm(er) spell.

 

After n days _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH

 

14 ____________ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ --3.1 ___ --6.3 _ +4.0 _ --4.4

15 ____________ --0.8 _ --2.1 _ --3.2 ___ --6.6 _ +3.6 _ --4.7

16 ____________ --0.9 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 ___ --7.1 _ +3.3 _ --4.9

17 ____________ --1.0 _ --2.9 _ --4.2 ___ --6.8 _ +3.4 _ --4.7

18 ____________ --1.0 _ --3.1 _ --4.4 ___ --6.5 _ +3.2 _ --4.4

19 ____________ --0.6 _ --2.8 _ --4.1 ___ --5.7 _ +3.2 _ --3.9

[Roger Smith]

A very warm weekend will bite hard into the negative anomalies (and even boost positive ATL) but it looks set to turn equally cold afterwards, so the projections from NWS forecasts to 27th and GFS output 28-31 (which looks very cold) will keep most of the estimated final values fairly close to the starting point of our countdown, which was after Friday 20th (except for ORD, you can add about one degree for each weekend day to these, ORD is warming at more like half a degree a day with smaller anomalies) ...

 

(22nd) Astounding positives for DCA and NYC saw massive increases, projections may need an adjustment but some very cold readings indicated on GFS for last two days of month will almost cancel these jumps. Houston and Chicago already into colder air and on their way back down today.

 

(27th) Oddly enough, four of six stations did not change on the 27th, rather unusual trivia. Don't think some of my projections are going to hit unless it goes off the scale cold 30-31. But too merry to care at this point.

 

(29th) Final projections have been revised again, largely upward and now it's time to post a provisional table of results. That will replace the list which was in this post before today.

 

 

After n days ____ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

20 ____________ +0.2 _ --2.1 _ --3.5 ___ --4.9 _ +3.3 _ --2.8

21 ____________ +1.3 _ --1.0 _ --2.6 ___ --4.4 _ +4.0 _ --2.1

22 ____________ +2.4 _ +0.5 _ --2.0 ___ --4.1 _ +4.7 _ --2.2

23 ____________ +2.9 _ +1.2 _ --1.7 ___ --4.7 _ +4.7 _ --2.6

24 ____________ +2.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.5 ___ --5.0 _ +4.1 _ --2.9

25 ____________ +2.2 _ +0.7 _ --1.9 ___ --4.9 _ +3.6 _ --3.0

26 ____________ +2.1 _ +0.6 _ --1.9 ___ --4.8 _ +3.5 _ --2.8

27 ____________ +2.1 _ +0.6 _ --1.9 ___ --4.4 _ +3.4 _ --2.8

28 ____________ +2.2 _ +1.0 _ --1.6 ___ --3.6 _ +3.2 _ --2.8

29 ____________ +2.5 _ +1.4 _ --1.2 ___ --3.5 _ +3.2 _ --2.7

30 ____________ +2.6 _ +1.3 _ --1.2 ___ --4.0 _ +3.1 _ --2.9

 

31 final_ _ _ _ _ _ +2.6 _ +1.0 _ --1.4 ___ --4.4 _ +2.8 _ --3.0

[Roger Smith]

December 2013 -- Final scoring

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

Confirmed anom ___ +2.6 _ +1.0 _ --1.4 _ (CL) _ --4.4 _ +2.8 _ --3.0 _ (EX) __ TOTALS

 

metalicwx366 ______ 74 __ 98 __ 60 ___ 232 ___ 56 __ 92 __ 68 ___ 216 _____ 448

Goobagooba _______ 88 __ 98 __ 60 ___ 246 ___ 52 __ 86 __ 58 ___ 196 _____ 442

Jonger1150 ________ 78 __ 90 __ 62 ___ 230 ___ 42 __ 64 __ 60 ___ 166 _____ 396

donsutherland.1 ____ 56 __ 76 __ 78 ___ 210 ___ 76 __ 96 __ 10 ___ 182 _____ 392

bkviking ___________ 64 __ 88 __ 74 ___ 226 ___ 48 __ 68 __ 32 ___ 148 _____ 374

Damage in Tolland __ 84 __ 90 __ 70 ___ 244 ___ 30 __ 98 __ 00 ___ 128 _____ 372

H2OTown_Wx ______74 __100__ 50 ___ 224 ___ 26 __ 60 __ 62 ___ 148 _____ 372

 

Consensus _________ 50 __ 68 __ 82 ___ 200 ___ 48 __ 64 __ 48 ___ 160 _____ 360

 

weatherdude ______ 04 __ 44 __ 98 ___ 146 ___ 78 __ 34 __100___ 212 _____ 358

wxdude64 _________ 48 __ 56 __ 90 ___ 194 ___ 70 __ 84 __ 10 ___ 164 _____ 358

RodneyS __________ 20 __ 46 __ 84 ___ 150 ___ 78 __100__ 30 ___ 208 _____ 358

Midlo Snow Maker ___68 __ 64 __ 82 ___ 214 ___ 62 __ 78 __ 00 ___ 140 _____ 354

SD _______________ 68 __ 94 __ 66 ___ 228 ___ 12 __ 64 __ 50 ___ 126 _____ 354

Inudaw ___________ 54 __ 76 __ 82 ___ 212 ___ 36 __ 54 __ 52 ___ 142 _____ 354

 

cpick79 ___________ 88 __ 90 __ 50 ___ 228 ___ 22 __ 88 __ 40 ___ 148 _ 376

  cpick79 __ (-7%) __ 82 __ 84 __ 46 ___ 212 ___ 20 __ 82 __ 37 ___ 139 _____ 351

Mallow ____________ 42 __ 68 __ 96 ___ 206 ___ 30 __ 48 __ 64 ___ 142 ____ 348

Isotherm __________ 28 __ 50 __ 92 ___ 170 ___ 66 __ 82 __ 24 ___ 172 _____ 342

Chicago Storm ______50 __ 74 __ 80 ___ 204 ___ 34 __ 64 __ 34 ___ 132 _____ 336

blazess556 _________26 __ 44 __ 90 ___ 160 ___ 70 __ 78 __ 20 ___ 168 _____ 328

Stebo _____________ 50__ 70 __ 88 ___ 208 ___ 40 __ 58 __ 22 ___ 120 _____ 328

hudsonvalley21 _____ 34 __ 58 __ 98 ___ 190 ___ 26 __ 52 __ 52 ___ 130 _____ 320

Tom ______________ 44 __ 66 __ 84 ___ 194 ___ 50 __ 26 __ 44 ___ 120 _____ 314

 

Normal ____________ 48 __ 80 __ 72 ___ 200 ____ 12 __ 44 ___ 40 ___ 96 ____ 296

 

uncle W ___________ 18 __ 36 __ 88 ___ 142 ____ 58 __ 52 __ 30 ___ 140 ____ 282

Tenman Johnson ____ 38 __ 66 __ 80 ___ 184 ____ 04 __ 66 __ 20 ____ 90 ____ 274

Roger Smith ________ 00 __ 24__ 98 ___ 122 ____ 54 __ 00 __ 54 ___ 108 ____ 230

 

MN_Transplant _____ 00 __ 10 __ 72 ____ 82 ____ 94 __ 00 __ 64 ____ 158 _ 240

___________ (-9%) _ 00 __ 09 __ 66 ___ 75 _____ 86 __ 00 __ 58 ____ 144 ____ 219

 

DerekZ ____________ 06 __ 38 __ 80 ___ 116 ____ 38 __ 06 __ 60 ___ 104 _ 220

_________ (-20%) __ 05 __ 30 __ 64 ___ 099 ____ 30 __ 05 __ 48 _____ 83 ____ 182

[Roger Smith]

Congrats to RodneyS for winning the scoring title, also well done to Midlo Snow Maker, Don Sutherland.1, and Wxdude64 who managed to beat our consensus score.

 

RodneyS also did best for four of six locations, including all three of the "classic" eastern stations, and ATL. Wxdude64 was tops for ORD and Mallow for IAH.

 

Your best score stats are compiled on the right of your total scores. I have a case for being most inconsistent. Once again, RodneyS leads there with 17 best scores (incl ties) for station or division. Mallow was the only forecaster who scooped two different months. If you won a month, that shows up in blue at the very end of the row.

 

Most usernames goes to Damage in Tolland with three. He was also Wx Hype and CT Blizz.

 

 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< FINAL 2013 ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________


Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________
....Annual (cum) values ......... +1.1 .. +0.7 .. +1.0 ........ ... --0.3 .. --0.0 .. +0.0 ...................... Best score awards
_________________________________________________________________________(for stns,divs,total,months won)
 

01 RODNEY S .....................948 .. 902 .. 994 ... 2844 ... .. 701 .. 890 .. 780 .... 2371 ..... 5215 _ 231142 31 17 NOV

02 MIDLO SNOW MAKER .... 898 .. 830 .. 922 .... 2650 ... ... 729 .. 806 .. 782 .... 2317 ...... 4967 _ 311003 01 9

03 DONSUTHERLAND1 ....... 802 .. 834 .. 932 .... 2568 ... ... 725 .. 772 .. 786 .... 2283 ...... 4851 _ 001002 00 3

04 WXDUDE64 ................... 842 .. 832 .. 900 ..... 2574 ... ... 779 .. 742 .. 744 .... 2265 ..... 4839 _ 010001 11 4 MAR

 

(05) Consensus .................. 816 .. 822 .. 952 .... 2590 ... .... 657 .. 661 ... 786 .... 2104 .... 4694 _ 113000 00 5

 

05 BKVIKING ..................... 772 .. 796 .. 888 .... 2456 ... ... 768 .. 646 .. 732 .... 2146 ..... 4602 _ 100010 00 2

06 SD ................................ 826 .. 864 .. 867 .... 2557 ... ... 650 .. 631 .. 695 .... 1976 ..... 4533 _ 211100 01 6

 

(07) Normal ....................... 734 .. 826 .. 854 .... 2414 ... ... 690 .. 686 .. 738 .... 2114 ..... 4528 _ 011021 00 5

 

07 MALLOW ....................... 772 .. 826 .. 936 .... 2534 ... ... 516 .. 650 .. 796 .... 1962 ..... 4496 _ 010211 00 5 JAN,JUL

08 BLAZESS556 .................. 757 .. 758 .. 917 .... 2432 ... ... 705 .. 656 .. 657 .... 2018 .... 4450

09 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 698 .. 767 .. 844 .... 2309 ... ... 693 .. 667 .. 754 .... 2114 ..... 4423 _ 011200 00 4 SEP

10 UNCLE W ....................... 684 .. 738 .. 822 .... 2244 ... .. 641 .. 710 .. 740 .... 2091 ..... 4335 _ 000011 00 2 AUG

 

11 INUDAW ........................ 768 .. 802 .. 962 .... 2532 ... ... 603 .. 507 .. 670 .... 1780 ..... 4312 _ 001000 00 1 OCT-r

12 ISOTHERM ..................... 732 .. 696 .. 810 .... 2238 ... ... 626 .. 659 .. 780 .... 2065 ..... 4303 _ 101111 02 7 MAY

13 GOOBAGOOBA ................ 749 .. 718 .. 753 .... 2220 ... ... 723 .. 542 .. 770 .... 2035 ..... 4255 _ 200000 10 3

14 ROGER SMITH ................ 668 .. 644 .. 788 .... 2100 ... ... 735 .. 632 .. 726 .... 2093 ..... 4193 _ 013211 11 10 JUN

15 STEBO ........................... 644 .. 734 .. 888 .... 2266 ... ... 702 .. 572 .. 612 .... 1886 ..... 4152 _ 101010 10 4

 

16 CHICAGO STORM ........... 748 .. 777 .. 857 .... 2382 ... ... 513 .. 591 .. 650 .... 1754 ..... 4136 _ 010000 10 2

17 TOM .............................. 670 .. 731 .. 843 .... 2244 ... ... 647 .. 537 .. 659 .... 1843 ..... 4087

18 HUDSONVALLEY21 .*1..... 681 .. 704 .. 715 .... 2100 ... ... 625 .. 582 .. 576 .... 1783 ...... 3883 _ 001000 00 1

19 DEREK Z ........................ 661 .. 596 .. 669 .... 1926 ... ... 558 .. 573 .. 760 .... 1891 ..... 3817 _ 010010 00 2

20 DAMAGE IN TOLLAND .... 702 .. 697 .. 727 .... 2126 ... ... 530 .. 615 .. 577 .... 1722 ..... 3848 _ 111101 01 6

 

21 SKIERINVERMONT .*3..... 678 .. 683 .. 684 .... 2045 ... ... 511 .. 502 .. 537 .... 1550 ..... 3595 _ 000001 00 1

22 SACRUS .*3.................... 619 .. 637 .. 703 .... 1959 ... ... 525 .. 506 ... 590 .... 1621 ..... 3580 _ 002110 00 4 APR

23 METALICWX366*4 ........... 651 .. 647 .. 579 .... 1877 ... ... 519 .. 627 .. 524 .... 1670 ..... 3547 _ 000000 01 1 DEC

24 ELLINWOOD *3............... 654 .. 622 .. 698 .... 1974 ... ... 415 .. 525 .. 596 .... 1536 .... 3510 _ 100001 00 2

25 CHICAGO WX .*3......,...... 628 .. 614 .. 676 .... 1918 ... ... 495 .. 461 .. 616 .... 1572 .... 3490 _ 101101 10 5

 

26 H2OTOWN_WX..*5 .......... 549 .. 544 .. 551 .... 1644 ... ... 251 .. 357 .. 418 .... 1026 ...... 2670 _ 012010 10 5

27 ANDY HB*7 ..................... 372 .. 362 .. 372 .... 1106 ... ... 340 .. 320 .. 326 ..... 986 ..... 2092

28 NZUCKER*8 ..................... 265 .. 320 .. 282 ..... 867 ... ... 252 .. 274 .. 298 ..... 824 ..... 1691 _ 010000 00 1

29 TENMAN JOHNSON *8 ...... 234 .. 300 .. 332 .... 866 ... ... 246 .. 250 .. 224 .... 720 ...... 1586

30 OHLEARY*8 ..................... 316 .. 260 .. 250 ..... 826 .... ... 196 .. 262 .. 265 .... 723 ..... 1549

 

31 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS*7.309 .. 285 .. 345 ..... 939 ... .... 93 .. 173 .. 232 ...... 498 ..... 1437

32 MIKE VENTRICE*9 ............ 202 .. 202 .. 202 .... 606 ... ... 222 .. 250 .. 210 ..... 682 ..... 1288 _ 000100 00 1

33 SRAIN*8 .......................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 ... ... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 1281

34 FRIVOLOUSZ21*8 ............. 258 .. 225 .. 289 ..... 772 ... ... 175 .. 155 .. 159 ..... 489 ..... 1261 _ 010100 00 2

35 I.NEED.SNOW*9 .............. 249 .. 261 .. 215 ..... 725 ... ... 192 .. 171 .. 132 .... 495 ..... 1220 _ 100010 11 4 FEB

36 MR TORCHEY*8 .............. 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 ... ... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _ 001010 00 2

37 WEATHERDUDE*8 ........... 105 .. 178 .. 281 .... 564 ... ... 152 .. 132 .. 232 ..... 516 ..... 1080 _ 001001 00 2

38 CPICK79*9 ...................... 208 .. 162 .. 204 .... 574 ... ... 119 .. 186 .. 123 .... 428 ...... 1002

39 INTENSE BLIZZ 14 *10 .... 152 .. 164 .. 188 ... 504 ... ..... 84 .. 120 .. 106 .... 310 ..... 814
40 WHITEOUTMD*10 .............. 90 .. 114 .. 140 ... 344 ... ... 104 .. 46 .. 172 ..... 322 ...... 666 _ 001001 00 2

 

41 SKISHEEP*10 .................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 ... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 617

42 BRAD1551*10 ................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 ... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 _ 010000 00 1

43 FORKYFORK *11................. 98 ... 96 ... 82 ..... 276 .... .... 78 ... 98 ... 92 ..... 268 ...... 544 _ 110000 00 2 OCT

44 EDUARDO*11..................... 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 482
45 QVECTORMAN*10 ............ 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 ... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _ 100000 00 1
46 B.IRVING*11 ..................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 ... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 416

47 APACHE TROUT *11 ............ 44 ... 56 ... 76 .... 176 ... ..... 90 ... 40 ... 98 ..... 228 ..... 404

47 JONGER1150 *11 ................ 78 ... 90 ... 62 .... 230 ... ..... 42 ... 64 ... 60 ..... 166 ..... 396

48 WINTER WX LUVR *11 ........ 66 ... 46 ... 46 .... 158 ... ..... 64 ... 98 ... 56 ..... 218 ..... 376 _ 000010 00 1

49 FREE_MAN *11 ................... 38 ... 56 ... 88 .... 180 ... ..... 62 ... 43 ... 85 ..... 190 ...... 370

50 BRIAN 5671*11 .................. 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 ... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 358

 

51 HOCKEYINC*11 ................... 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 ... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 .... 160 ...... 330

52 NYCSUBURBS*11 ................ 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 ... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ..... 322
53 STORMITECTURE*11 .......... 29 ... 55 ... 94 ..... 178 ... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 254
54 SHADES*11 ........................ 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 ... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238

55 TSTEEL*11 ......................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 ... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ..... 209
56 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA*11.30 .. 28 .. 32 ...... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190
57 69APORCUPINE*11 ............. 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 ... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 032
58 OKIE333*11.......................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 ... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010

59 GD0815 *11 ......................... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ... ..... 06 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 006 ...... 006

 

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Notes:

 

1. After forecaster name, *followed by number indicates number of missed forecasts.

 

2. Months won are indicated at end of each forecaster row, in blue type. Inudaw (10r) noted as highest regular entrant Oct, as forkyfork with one entry has that high score.

 

3. Best score awards now made easier to read, number code for each forecaster tells you how many months have been won in each of six station categories followed (in bold) by classic and expanded totals. The final red number tells you how many awards in total have been won. Any tie counts as an award and any human high score as opposed to consensus or normal counts also.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[RodneyS]

Thanks, Roger, I score your administration of the 2013 contest as 100 percent.  And I appreciate your willingness to continue to administer it this year, with three additional cities in the mix as a separate category.  

[donsutherland1]

Congratulations RodneyS. Very well done. Have a great New Year.

[Roger Smith]

Rankings for stations and divisions, by order of finish in contest, for top 25 of year

 

Forecaster ________ DC _ NY _ BOS __ CL __ ORD,ATL,IAH __ EX  ___ best rank

 

01 RodneyS ___________ 01 _ 01 _ 01 ___ 01 ____ 09 _ 01 _ 04* __ 01 _____ 01

02 MidloSnowMaker_____ 02 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 02 ____ 04 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _____ 02

03 Don.sutherland.1 ____ 05 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 03 ____ 05 _ 03 _ 02 ___ 03 _____ 02

04 wxdude64__________ 03 _ 04 _ 07 ___ 04 ____ 01 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 04 _____ 01

 

05 Consensus _________ 05 _ 06 _ 03 ___ 03 ____ 11 _ 07 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 03

 

05 BKViking ___________ 06*_ 08 _ 08*___ 08 ____ 02 _ 10 _ 11 ___ 05 ____ 02

06 SD ________________ 04 _ 02 _ 10 ___ 05 ____ 11 _ 12 _ 13 ___ 12 _____ 02

 

07 Normal ____________ 12 _ 06 _ 12 ___ 10 ____ 11 _ 06 _ 11 ___ 06 _____ 06

 

07 Mallow ____________ 06*_ 06 _ 03 ___ 06 ____ 21 _ 09 _ 01 ___ 13 _____ 01

08 blazess556 _________ 09 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 09 ____ 07 _ 08 _ 16 ___ 11 _____ 06

09 MNTransplant ______ 14 _ 10 _ 12 ___ 11 ____ 10 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 06 _____ 06

10 uncleW____________ 16 _ 12 _ 14 ___ 13*____13 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 05

 

11 Inudaw ____________ 08 _ 07 _ 02 ___ 07 ____ 16 _ 22 _ 14 ___ 18 _____ 02

12 Isotherm ___________ 12 _ 18 _ 15 ___ 15 ____ 14 _ 07 _ 04*___ 09 _____ 04

13 Goobagooba ________ 10 _ 15 _ 17 ___ 16 ____ 06 _ 19 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 06

14 Roger Smith ________ 19 _ 21 _ 16 ___ 18* ___ 03 _ 11 _ 12 ___ 07 _____ 03

15 Stebo______________ 22 _ 13 _ 08*___ 12 ____ 08 _ 18 _ 19 ___ 15 _____ 08

 

16 Chicago Storm ______ 11 _ 09 _ 11 ___ 10 ____ 22 _ 15 _ 17 ___ 19 _____ 09

17 Tom ______________ 18 _ 14 _ 13 ___ 13*____12 _ 20 _ 15 ___ 16 _____ 12

18 Hudsonvalley21 (1) __ 16 _ 16 _ 19 ___ 18*____15 _ 16 _ 23 ___ 17 _____ 15

19 DerekZ ____________ 20 _ 25 _ 24 ___ 23 ____ 17 _ 17 _ 07 ___ 14 _____ 07

20 Damage in Tolland ___13 _ 17 _ 18 ___ 17 ____ 18 _ 14 _ 22 ___ 20 _____ 13

 

21 Skier in Vermont (3)__ 17 _ 18 _ 22 ___ 20 ____ 23 _ 24 _ 24 ___ 24 _____ 17

22 Sacrus (3) _________ 25 _ 22 _ 20 ___ 22 ____ 19 _ 23 _ 21 ___ 22 _____ 19

23 Metalicwx366 (4)____ 23 _ 20 _ 25 ___ 25 ____ 20 _ 13 _ 25 ___ 21 _____ 13

24 Ellinwood (3)_______ 21 _ 23 _ 21 ___ 21 ____ 25 _ 21 _ 20 ___ 25 _____ 20

25 Chicago Wx (3) _____ 24 _ 24 _ 23 ___ 24 ____ 24 _ 25 _ 18 ___ 23 _____ 18

 

* tied in rank

(n) number of missing months

 

Moral of the story? Stick close to consensus and just go a bit towards the perceived anomaly from there.

 

Top four in classic division were also top four in expansion division.

 

Just about everyone had a top ten in some department, hope you enjoyed the competition. Don't forget to enter Jan 2014.

[Damage In Tolland]

Thanks for compiling all the numbers Roger. I know it's a lot of work.

 

3 name changes and  a top 20 finish FTW

[Quixotic1]

Congrats to RodneyS and thanks to Roger.

[wxdude64]

First Snowfall bonus contest

 

 

With 0.4" reported at ORD on Nov 11 , 0.4" at ATL on Nov 27,  0.1" at BOS on Dec 7, then 0.6" at DCA Dec 8 and 0.1" at NYC, points are awarded as shown in the table below. Numbers shown for IAH are predicted snowfall dates, -- there means no measurable snow expected.

 

Points for IAH will be 10 for all "no snow" forecasts if that's the case, otherwise, points from 10 down to 4 will go to the seven who predicted snow there.

 

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_ IAH______ Points ___ Day errors ___ Ranks (top 10)

 

GD0815 ______________  08....04....18....12....04...77............... 46 ........... 90 ______10,7t

DerekZ _______________ 02....15....08....16.....--.....--............... 41 ......... 200  ______

stebo ________________ 14....02....03....12....04....--............... 35 ........... 97  ______ --,10

uncle W ______________ 07....06....07....08....05....75.............. 33 .......... 100  ______ --,

metalicwx366 __________17....17....13....03.....--.....--............... 50 ......... 166  ______ 5,--

bkviking ______________ 05....04....12....00....02....--............... 23 .......... 116  ______

blazess556 ____________ 16....08....04....12.....--.....--............... 40 ......... 175  ______

Isotherm ______________ 14....06....07....09.....--.....--............... 36 ......... 179  ______

Inudaw _______________ 14....20....19....01....01.....--............... 55 ........... 88  ______ 2,6

goobagooba ___________ 20....11....01....16....01....54............... 49 ........... 85  ______ 6,4

 

Consensus _____________ 10....20....07....08....01....--............... 46 ........... 98  ______ 9,11

 

Midlo_Snow_Maker ______ 19....19....12....08....01....--............... 59 ........... 86  ______ 1,5

Tom __________________ 11....13....16....04....01....--............... 45 ........... 97  ______ 11,10

SD ___________________ 19....07....02....18....07....80............... 53 ........... 77  ______ 3,2

Wx Hype ______________ 01....17....12....08.....--.....--............... 38 .......... 292  ______

wxdude64 _____________ 10....11....01....14....09....72............... 45 .......... 81  ______  11,3

donsutherland.1 ________ 09....09....16....00.....--.....--............... 34 ...........186  ______

hudsonvalley21 _________ 03....15....16....08....06....82.............. 48 ........... 90  ______ 7,7t

Chicago Storm __________15....19....07....03....08....--............... 52 ........... 73  ______ 4,1

 

Normal ________________ 14....20....13....12....01.....--.............. 60 ........... 94  ______ 1,9

 

Roger Smith ___________ 05....01....00...13....10.....88.............. 29 ........... 95  ______ --, 9

RodneyS ______________ 06....13....09...18....01....--................ 47 ........... 115  ______ 8,--

 

 

___________________________________________________________

 

 

This table is now complete for all but IAH, and that will determine our winner(s) in each category, points and total day errors ... here's how it could finish from current point totals and cumulative day errors:

 

If there is no snow at IAH, Normal would continue to lead and therefore win the points race with 70. Among our leading forecasters, Midlo Snow Maker is set to win "high human" with 69 (if no snow at IAH). Also, Inudaw and Chicago Storm would move up with ten points from no snow. Otherwise, SD can win on points if it first snows within about a week of his forecast of Jan 19th. He needs to finish third or better to overtake normal and Midlo. Goobagooba will win on points if it snows before Jan 10th at IAH.

 

As far as accumulated day error, no snow will seal the deal for Chicago Storm, while any snow before March 1st gives SD the edge, unless it comes between Jan 2nd and Jan 15th, then Wxdude64 would score fewer points and win. A snowfall at IAH before New Years Day would give goobagooba the win on day errors. I don't think anyone else has a mathematical chance of finishing first.

Nevermind Houston, you are too late to the party .......

but nice try

[Roger Smith]

Good effort though, I think it came close to snowing around your predicted date but stayed rain at 34-35 F. It does appear possible that we can settle IAH in a few days and I would then check all these scores and move the final report over to the current month (Jan or if necessary Feb). If it does snow, the points are locked in whatever the date and I would sweep the oddball sites, figures. Day errors will be 75 to 80 if it snows this month, for all the "no snow" forecasts for IAH. The points portion is probably the better of the two scoring systems now that I see how this actually played out.

[Roger Smith]

Well then, IAH had only two reports of "trace" snowfall in the past week so there can not yet be a final report on this snowfall contest. Therefore any snow in February or March will end the contest in a predictable order of finish on both points and date errors, but the closer we get to a snowfall at the end of the winter, the lower these date errors become for the "no snow" forecasters (who are entered by default as April 16 or day 167). Darn it anyway given that I would have had a nifty one day error for IAH had the sleet just made a bit more of an impression on the observer.

 

Basically, SD has Chicago Storm covered on day errors to Feb 28 then any outcome favours Chicago Storm who has fewer day error points than any other no-snow-at-IAH entry.