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December 2013 temperature forecast contest **with annual scores**

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

New entries are always welcome, but those entering for the first time or out of the running for 2013, take note, I will be keeping track of four seasonal races so there is already something to play for this month.

 

As most will already know, we predict anomalies against 1981-2010 normals for six locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

Whatever I said about penalties aeons ago, we'll have some relaxed penalties anyway for this last month since Thanksgiving fell so late that this is evidently a four-day weekend coming up ... something I failed to predict (and this is much easier than weather).

 

Also everyone needs a bit of help now to catch the streaking RodneyS.

 

So you can only get nailed for 12% late on the first (06z 1st to 06z 2nd this time) and then the usual one per cent an hour until 06z 5th after which it's 4% per hour for four more hours to 10z on the 5th.

 

Make a note if you're heading off-line. The slightly revised deadline means that you have until 0100h on Sunday Dec 1st (EST) to enter without penalty.

 

Please feel free to add any comments about contest, such as do you like the occasional bonus questions, are we good to stay with the current six locations, time penalties okay etc etc.

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

New entries are always welcome, but those entering for the first time or out of the running for 2013, take note, I will be keeping track of four seasonal races so there is already something to play for this month.

 

As most will already know, we predict anomalies against 1981-2010 normals for six locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

Whatever I said about penalties aeons ago, we'll have some relaxed penalties anyway for this last month since Thanksgiving fell so late that this is evidently a four-day weekend coming up ... something I failed to predict (and this is much easier than weather).

 

Also everyone needs a bit of help now to catch the streaking RodneyS.

 

So you can only get nailed for 12% late on the first (06z 1st to 06z 2nd this time) and then the usual one per cent an hour until 06z 5th after which it's 4% per hour for four more hours to 10z on the 5th.

 

Make a note if you're heading off-line. The slightly revised deadline means that you have until 0100h on Sunday Dec 1st (EST) to enter without penalty.

 

Please feel free to add any comments about contest, such as do you like the occasional bonus questions, are we good to stay with the current six locations, time penalties okay etc etc.

DCA:-0.5

NYC:-0.7

BOS:-0.4

ORD:+0.4

ATL:+1.1

IAH:+1.0

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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December 2013 forecasts

____________________

 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

 

Goobagooba ________ +2.0 __ +1.1 __ +0.6 ____ --2.0 __ +2.1 __ --0.9

cpick79 ___ (-7%) ___ +2.0 __ +1.5 __ +1.1 ____ --0.5 __ +2.2 ___ 0.0

Damage in Tolland ___ +1.8 __ +0.5 __ +0.1 ____ --0.9 __ +2.9 __ +2.5

Jonger1150 _________ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +0.5 ____ --1.5 __ +1.0 __ --1.0

H2OTown_Wx _______ +1.3 __ +1.0 __ +1.1 ____ --0.7 __ +0.8 __ --1.1

metalicwx366 _______ +1.3 __ +0.9 __ +0.6 _____ --2.2 __ +2.4 __ --1.4

SD ________________ +1.0 __ +0.7 __ +0.3 ______ 0.0 __ +1.0 __ --0.5

Midlo Snow Maker ____ +1.0 __ --0.8 __ --0.5 _____ --2.5 __ +1.7 __ +2.5

bkviking ____________ +0.8 __ +0.4 __ --0.1 ____  --1.8 __ +1.2 __ +0.4

donsutherland.1 _____ +0.4 __ --0.2 __ --0.3 _____ --3.2 __ +3.0 __ +1.5

Inudaw ____________ +0.3 __ --0.2 __ --0.5 _____ --1.2 __ +0.5 __ --0.6

Chicago Storm ______ +0.1 __ --0.3 __ --0.4 ____  --1.1 __ +1.0 __ +0.3

Stebo ______________ +0.1__ --0.5 __ --0.8 ____  --1.4 __ +0.7 __ +0.9

 

Consensus __________ +0.1 __ --0.6 __ --0.5 ____ --1.8 __ +1.0 __ --0.4

 

Normal _____________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

wxdude64 __________ 0.0 __ --1.2 __ --0.9 ______ --2.9 __ +2.0 __ +1.5

Tom ______________ --0.2 __ --0.7 __ --0.6 _____ --1.9 __ --0.9 __ --0.2

Mallow ____________ --0.3 __ --0.6 __ --1.2 _____ --0.9 __ +0.2 __ --1.2

Tenman Johnson ____ --0.5 __ --0.7 __ --0.4 _____ +0.4 __ +1.1 __ +1.0

hudsonvalley21 _____ --0.7 __ --1.1 __ --1.5 _____ --0.7 __ +0.4 __ --0.6

Isotherm ___________ --1.0 __ --1.5 __ --1.8 _____ --2.7 __ +1.9 __ +0.8

blazess556 _________ --1.1 __ --1.8 __ --1.9 _____ --2.9 __ +1.7 __ +1.0

RodneyS ___________ --1.4 __ --1.7 __ --0.6 _____ --3.3 __ +2.8 __ +0.5

uncle W ___________ --1.5 __ --2.2 __ --2.0 _____ --2.3 __ +0.4 __ +0.5

DerekZ ___ (-20%) __ --2.1 __ --2.1 __ --2.4 _____ --1.1 __ --1.9 __ --1.0

weatherdude _______ --2.2 __ --1.8 __ --1.5 _____ --5.5 __ --0.5 __ --3.0

MN_Transplant (-9%)  --3.4 __ --3.5 __ --2.8 _____ --4.1 __ --2.7 __ --1.2

Roger Smith ________ --3.5 __ --2.8 __ --1.5 _____ --6.7 __ --5.4 __ --5.3

 

 

(edit Dec 3, there are now 26 entries and the median is average of 13th and 14th ranked forecasts)

 

(Damage in Tolland = Wx Hype)

 

 

 

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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Please feel free to add any comments about contest, such as do you like the occasional bonus questions, are we good to stay with the current six locations, time penalties okay etc etc.

The bonus questions are fun, and I think the time penalties are fine. Regarding locations, I don't want to burden you with more locations, as you are already putting lots of time into this contest, but if you're a glutton for punishment we could consider adding a western city or two, such as Denver, Seattle, or Los Angeles.  Thanks again for doing such a great job of running this.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks, have updated the table ... given that the three "expanded" stations are evidently a learning curve for most of us, I would propose holding off on any new sites but what I could do is just run a pilot project separately for DEN, PHX, SEA so that people could see how their forecasting measured up for a year. If this meets with much opposition I would scrap the idea, but if I keep the scores out of the actual contest and run it as a demo, then people can see if they want to have a third nightmare I mean challenge.

 

I can tell you from living fairly close to SEA that anomalies in this part of the world are fairly tame most of the time. DEN on the other hand probably considers 4 deg anomalies to be "near normal" and I think my scoring system would be something to test out in a demo, probably SEA forecasts should be subject to smaller error criteria and DEN maybe larger than other sites. PHX probably has about the same range as we're used to, or maybe a bit smaller too.

 

Also if it's a separate demo, not everyone needs to commit to it and that won't have a negative effect on turnout which might concern us. It was a bit unsettling to lose 3 or 4 regulars from the contest as I tend to be in my own little world, I have no real idea what (if anything) led to the autumn downsizing and I assume it had nothing to do with contests. Nobody has ever contacted me about any "issues" (except when I do a typo or math error and that's never much of a thing).

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wxdude64

wxdude64

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Thanks, have updated the table ... given that the three "expanded" stations are evidently a learning curve for most of us, I would propose holding off on any new sites but what I could do is just run a pilot project separately for DEN, PHX, SEA so that people could see how their forecasting measured up for a year. If this meets with much opposition I would scrap the idea, but if I keep the scores out of the actual contest and run it as a demo, then people can see if they want to have a third nightmare I mean challenge.

 

I can tell you from living fairly close to SEA that anomalies in this part of the world are fairly tame most of the time. DEN on the other hand probably considers 4 deg anomalies to be "near normal" and I think my scoring system would be something to test out in a demo, probably SEA forecasts should be subject to smaller error criteria and DEN maybe larger than other sites. PHX probably has about the same range as we're used to, or maybe a bit smaller too.

 

Also if it's a separate demo, not everyone needs to commit to it and that won't have a negative effect on turnout which might concern us. It was a bit unsettling to lose 3 or 4 regulars from the contest as I tend to be in my own little world, I have no real idea what (if anything) led to the autumn downsizing and I assume it had nothing to do with contests. Nobody has ever contacted me about any "issues" (except when I do a typo or math error and that's never much of a thing).

I agree, DEN would be a nice 'challenge', to say the least. Only problem I see is maybe a few not wanting to keep up with 9. Of course when it was pushed out to 6 a few thought the same way, and it has turned out fine.

The question becomes do YOU want to keep up with more?

I enjoy the game, and appreciate you doing the scoring! :)

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