BIG FROSTY Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 And you will probably be correct. It is a numbers thing, like taking the team that has a big lead into halftime. Let's not forget that a good chunk of the SE is west of the Apps though. Memphis could have a banner month and maybe some of the western areas of the SE. The Euro hasn't been exactly stellar either. I will gladly take a warm start to December if the middle and late portions of the month are cold, no matter where the average ends . That's me I would love to see it just a little before Christmas and January COLD! and snowy JB says break mid late December then Cold comes back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 That's me I would love to see it just a little before Christmas and January COLD! and snowy JB says break mid late December then Cold comes back? Every pattern relaxes. I guess the real debate is whether the upcoming warmth is the beginning of a pattern change or just normal ebb and flow. Looks to me like a lot of back and forth for December. The trough has not held out West for extended time...Snowpack and cold in Canada mean less distance for cold to travel over warm / open ground...won't modify as much. It doesn't take much to keep me happy wx wise. Looks like decent chances for snow/ice on either side of the Apps around Dec 11th. There have been years where we haven't seen chances until January. I am not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think its normal in the South-East to go from mild to winter weather. Seemed to happen a lot in front of widespread winter storms several years ago. Agree 100% I've seen it in the 50's and even around 60 many times and snow/Ice the next day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think its normal in the South-East to go from mild to winter weather. Seemed to happen a lot in front of widespread winter storms several years ago. When I was younger, we'd get snow after a tornado outbreak etc.. sure since I understand it now.. it's due to a strong cold front.. but a lot of events have unfolded in history that weren't supposed to happen right off of a warm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think its normal in the South-East to go from mild to winter weather. Seemed to happen a lot in front of widespread winter storms several years ago. LOL at the word strike...so true. Just looked at the 12z Euro. I don't trust it past day 7, but looks like it will drop a trough into the SE around Day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 What will be interesting to see is if the super duper SE ridge and -PNA, as shown on the Euro, comes to pass. It was sure wrong when it showed the stout -NAO for a few runs a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Agree 100% I've seen it in the 50's and even around 60 many times and snow/Ice the next day! I know of a few occasions one was in the 90's it was 55 and sunny while we were landscaping next day 8 inches on ground. Same thing in 2000 and again march 1 2009 both days temps in upper 50's next day 8-10 inches of snow. Anything possible in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 December 18 - 22, 1989, followed by sticking snow way down here comes to mind ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I'm curious how far back you went and if it was since records have been kept, what would change percentage wise if you only took the last 30 years. Fwiw, I did KATL. Their lowest in 11/13 was 22. Since 1981, there have been only two DJFM's that didn't back to or below 22 for coldest: 24 in 2005-6 and 25 in 2012-13. So, two out of 33 years or 6% fwiw. But it is not a big sample size for something like this. I did a quick check of other years, too, back to 1878-9: 52-53: 22; 49-50: 25; 48-9: 22; 40-1: 22; 1912-3: 24; 1881-2: 22 So, only two winters didn't get back to 22 or lower..so 2 out of 101 years...2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Interesting. I asked because I have already had a lower temp this November than I reached the previous two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Hasn't DS changed his forecast from warm, to cold and back to warm, all in the last week? If you forecast almost every possibility, you're likely to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 hr 183 winter weather breaking out from Louisiana to western NC. Here is a look at hr 189 for entertainment purposes. hr204... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Hasn't DS changed his forecast from warm, to cold and back to warm, all in the last week? If you forecast almost every possibility, you're likely to be right. Well, it's technically not December yet, so I guess he's allowed. But, the fact that it's been changed a few times speaks not only to the complexity of LR forecasting in general but to the extra challenging nature of this year as well. The EPO and WPO has been enough to offset the other unfavorable signals. Now that we're getting into December, the prevailing idea by Don, Wes, and others is that the EPO/WPO pattern will break down, but even if it doesn't, if the other indexes continue to be aligned as they have been, the longer wavelengths of winter will temper the effects of the EPO/WPO pattern, which has been responsible for keeping the cold air around. Of course, Robert, DT, and JB are singing a different tune, though JB just chanced his December outlook from cooler than normal in the SE to normal. It'll be interesting to see which group is right: a good old fashioned cold and snowy winter, or a typical modern day ho hum mostly mild winter with a mercy nickel and dime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 hr 183 winter weather breaking out from Louisiana to western NC. Here is a look at hr 189 for entertainment purposes. That is a bonified torch. The models are having an incredibly difficult time with the approaching arctic boundary. Until the cold HP sets up shop, going to be tough to tell where the energy under the trough ejects and turns the corner. Per the 18z GFS, very wintry pattern as the arctic boundary is more progressive than Euro. #model war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 ^ I would hate to be in a model war with the Euro, if I'm the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 ^ I would hate to be in a model war with the Euro, if I'm the GFS.to be fair its been beating the euro a lot over the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 ^ I would hate to be in a model war with the Euro, if I'm the GFS. inb4 Brick comes in here and says the model with snow will fold to the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 ^ I would hate to be in a model war with the Euro, if I'm the GFS. The Euro tried to phase this past Thanksgiving system and was wrong. It seems to have some issues with holding too much energy back in the SW. It is not what it used to be, no matter the outcome for December. Best model out there? Yes. But by a smidgeon when looking at the mid-range. GFS has performed pretty well. The GFS since last winter has been very good. The 18z GFS does show a nationwide moderation of temps mid-month. This seems to be a winter where the indices may only take us so far. Cold rain is always a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 4 straight gfs runs in a row showing a significant winter weather threat. Tonights 0z run will be the first one inside trunc. Be interesting to see where things stand with the gfs this time tomorrow after 4 more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 4 straight gfs runs in a row showing a significant winter weather threat. Tonights 0z run will be the first one inside trunc. Be interesting to see where things stand with the gfs this time tomorrow after 4 more runs. Actually the 18z run was the first inside truncation, showing the snow breaking out over the SE by 186 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** CARLA *** 12z EURO is much slower with thr cold front at day 10 But what those other idiot weenie weather sites are ignoring is the 12z EURO ENSEMBLES. ..which drive the front much faster and further south Like · Reply · 2 · 28 minutes ago via mobile 12z euro ensembles support the progressive gfs, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I hear you guys. I hope the Euro is wrong, but it has been just as steadfast in showing a warm SE as the GFS has been in showing a winter storm. I have to say, though, it always feels better with the Euro on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I hear you guys. I hope the Euro is wrong, but it has been just as steadfast in showing a warm SE as the GFS has been in showing a winter storm. I have to say, though, it always feels better with the Euro on board. But let's be honest: the pattern has to relax sooner or later. I'd rather it be sooner, so we can potentially have a reset in January when we could get a real storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 inb4 Brick comes in here and says the model with snow will fold to the other You mean before he says "the models sometimes say this and sometimes say that, who can trust them?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 But let's be honest: the pattern has to relax sooner or later. I'd rather it be sooner, so we can potentially have a reset in January when we could get a real storm. I've got to agree with Joel here. If the falling +QBO/increased solar flux idea of forcing some arctic blocking is to be believed, it's going to be later into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 But let's be honest: the pattern has to relax sooner or later. I'd rather it be sooner, so we can potentially have a reset in January when we could get a real storm. Yep, I agree. I hope it relaxes after a winter storm and only for a short while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Well, it's technically not December yet, so I guess he's allowed. But, the fact that it's been changed a few times speaks not only to the complexity of LR forecasting in general but to the extra challenging nature of this year as well. The EPO and WPO has been enough to offset the other unfavorable signals. Now that we're getting into December, the prevailing idea by Don, Wes, and others is that the EPO/WPO pattern will break down, but even if it doesn't, if the other indexes continue to be aligned as they have been, the longer wavelengths of winter will temper the effects of the EPO/WPO pattern, which has been responsible for keeping the cold air around. Of course, Robert, DT, and JB are singing a different tune, though JB just chanced his December outlook from cooler than normal in the SE to normal. It'll be interesting to see which group is right: a good old fashioned cold and snowy winter, or a typical modern day ho hum mostly mild winter with a mercy nickel and dime event. JB said a very cold start to December never said cold all month. He said it would break then come back really cold. Has been saying that. I think to much emphasis on euro. neither has been accurate more than a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 JB said a very cold start to December never said cold all month. He said it would break then come back really cold. Has been saying that. I think to much emphasis on euro. neither has been accurate more than a few days out Yeah, I was just talking about his overall December forecast. The Euro is statistically better by a little bit, but both models have their biases and their strengths and weaknesses based on certain patterns. I would feel better with it on board. Maybe it'll get there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Well, it's technically not December yet, so I guess he's allowed. But, the fact that it's been changed a few times speaks not only to the complexity of LR forecasting in general but to the extra challenging nature of this year as well. The EPO and WPO has been enough to offset the other unfavorable signals. Now that we're getting into December, the prevailing idea by Don, Wes, and others is that the EPO/WPO pattern will break down, but even if it doesn't, if the other indexes continue to be aligned as they have been, the longer wavelengths of winter will temper the effects of the EPO/WPO pattern, which has been responsible for keeping the cold air around. Of course, Robert, DT, and JB are singing a different tune, though JB just chanced his December outlook from cooler than normal in the SE to normal. It'll be interesting to see which group is right: a good old fashioned cold and snowy winter, or a typical modern day ho hum mostly mild winter with a mercy nickel and dime event. He actually has December above normal parts of the SE, western half on NC normal.. only place in the lower 48 except a little slither in California.lol but has big time cold in the SE January/February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah, I was just talking about his overall December forecast. The Euro is statistically better by a little bit, but both models have their biases and their strengths and weaknesses based on certain patterns. I would feel better with it on board. Maybe it'll get there.... I don't trust nothing the GFS shows until the Euro jumps on board. That's just me. But really any snow storm euro has past 7 days never verifies in the se either!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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