pcbjr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Beyond the possibilities associated with the potential upcoming event, looking beyond it seems the op models are taking away any cold to speak of after about 180 hours. Am I missing something? Are the models having a hard time understanding the dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Beyond the possibilities associated with the potential upcoming event, looking beyond it seems the op models are taking away any cold to speak of after about 180 hours. Am I missing something? Is this models having a hard time understanding the dynamics? Patterns relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You know what is amazing? the euro ENS control says we stay below freezing for 96 hours after the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Thought the overnight Euro Ensemble Mean was fairly impressive. Surface low tracking just off the southeast coast, with banana sfc high to the north and northwest...one anchored in over northern NY at Canadian border, another to the west. Very good jet dynamics too with the southeast in right entrance region of jet over the mid-Atlantic, a common feature in winter storms here. Just looking through the various op and ensemble runs, one trend I see is that the northern stream shortwave that dives in from the Pacific Northwest is coming in a bit sharper and a bit farther west, inducing more of a storm signal - not all are like this, some are weak and north with that wave, but just commenting on trends I'm seeing, mainly with the various GFS Ensemble members. It's a tightrope with getting the storm and cold temps, but what's new Yes it is With that said, I'm not excited for mby, but it sure is interesting for those to my north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You know what is amazing? the euro ENS control says we stay below freezing for 96 hours after the event. That's a rare event in itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Good analysis this morning guys. I know it's irrelevant at this point, but just watched the 7 day planner, and they showed mix and snow in about the northern half of TN and two thirds of NC on Thursday and Wrapping up Friday . The precip shield never makes it north of VA. Don't they hug the GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You know what is amazing? the euro ENS control says we stay below freezing for 96 hours after the event. Any way you can legitimately post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z is actually very close around the 31st. Has some possible flurries coming in and a low developing off the coast. Let's see what it says for the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS looks nothing like the Euro last night. It does have some energy diving into the Rockies @96 so we'll see where that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z is actually very close around the 31st. Has some possible flurries coming in and a low developing off the coast. Let's see what it says for the next system. This could be extreme SEVa and NE NC best first chance for snow all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS has a clipper coming down. Congrats Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS squashes the southern wave in northern Mexico. Northern stream wave is fairly weak and north. Again, if you look at the GFS Ensemble members (prior runs) there are a lot of varying solutions of the specifics with how the southern and northern waves are handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS has a clipper coming down. Congrats Kentucky. This will be a real test for the Euro at it's wheel house. It's been pretty consistent on SOME southern stream energy being pushed towards the EC. THE GFS, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Actually, through 108 the GFS matches up well with the EC, especially in regards to the location of the northern shortwave in the vicinity of CO/WY. Thereafter the wave does not dig as far south as the EC, thus the coastal develops further north. All-in-all, its not terribly different through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No gulf low on the 12z GFS. looks like a miller B with that clipper. NY city does pretty well and Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WPC morning discussion... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, ANDNORTHEAST......INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTICSTATES...THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUMRANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEANAS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITYAND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPEOF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THEONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THEFAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OFNORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THEEAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROMTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELLBELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THENORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDEROF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, ANDNORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCEFOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALFOF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HASMARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVESOVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINETHIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WPC morning discussion... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, ANDNORTHEAST......INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTICSTATES...THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUMRANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEANAS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITYAND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPEOF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THEONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THEFAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OFNORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THEEAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROMTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELLBELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THENORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDEROF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, ANDNORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCEFOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALFOF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HASMARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVESOVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINETHIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.CISCO Congrats to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No gulf low on the 12z GFS. looks like a miller B with that clipper. NY city does pretty well and Boston go figure, the story of our life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Congrats to DC how about the interior of the southeast for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 how about the interior of the southeast for a changeNo you don't get it. DC has had it worse than any of the SE members on here. They have a huge snow drought. Last year they were expecting 10-15 inches of snow, and ended up with 40 and rain. Most epic fail ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I just started a new thread as this one was becoming slow to load on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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