burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 UKMet dives the northern stream in from the Pacific Northwest to the ArkLaTex. Heights relax along the east coast. Weak low tracks into Ohio. Looks like it would be Miller B-ish and a decent precip maker, but likely rain, or mix for some. Lot of options on the table here, from squash city and no storm, to amped up rain maker. Problem is, the combo of storm + cold makes up a small-ish percentage of the available options in this pattern. Worst torture of all of this is that this is going to be a total needle thread. Too much cold air and the system is shunted south with little to no moisture. Not enough cold air we get all the moisture we want but it's all rain. So it goes in the SE with most systems nothing is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Canadian is a swing and a miss just off the SE coast for Jan 2. Not all that cold either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro is rolling and out to 66. No major changes to speak of. The S/W out in the SW for 2/3 storm might be a tad stronger and a tad east. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @78 our energy is a slightly NE of where it was at 12z. We'll see if that helps with a less suppressed solution on down the line. This run is slightly warmer in that time frame as well which is helping keep that vort less suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries on Mon/Tues. What does the Doc. show for tail end of this weekend's system? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Big changes at 102. Energy is closed off and sitting in western Texas vs. the 12z which had in southwest Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @120 less suppressed and therefore warmer. Low is going across southern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Big changes at 102. Energy is closed off and sitting in western Texas vs. the 12z which had in southwest Mexico. Per 120, much wetter WSW flow means much wetter for the well inland SE. But it isn't as cold and may not be cold enough for much of the precip. for many areas. Tradeoff. Edit: above 0C at 850 for ATL, GSP but with plentiful rainfall. Maybe there could be some sleet on the northern end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @126 rain is moving in. This is much faster with the energy and noticeably warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @132 low is off the coast of SC with cold air racing in. This is very close for NC but this run aint gonna cut the mustard. Just too warm it looks like. That being said there is a system on it's heels coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @132 low is off the coast of SC with cold air racing in. This is very close for NC but this run aint gonna cut the mustard. Just too warm it looks like. We need to start 2014 with a good 1-3 inch soaker. We don't seem to get those too often anymore...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @138 low is moving OTS with a weak system coming into TN. SV maps aren't great for 5h but I would imagine there is some weak energy phasing somewhere in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 qpf (with 850's a little over 0C except in NC): ATL/AHN: 0.50"; GSP: 0.25". CHT/RDU under 0.25"; COLA and MCN: 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @144 light snow over TN, GA, upstate SC and NC. Very light qpf though and SFC temps are only good in NC and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @150 still light snow looks a little juicier. GA would really be wringing out the snow as thickness looks fantastic. That is some cold air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @156 still light snow in NC/SC. Central NC has moderate snow. This could be one to really watch. That energy coming in on the backside doesn't put out much QPF but when it's that cold aloft it can spell good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 SV snow map has 1 inch across most of NC @156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @162 moisture is moving out but some coastal development is happening so eastern VA and coastal sections of norther NC cash in. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Thanks, Burger! I must admit that I'm a little surprised that it was too warm (at least initially) looking at the free 24-hour panels (it appeared to be a pretty perfect track, IMO), but I'll take accumulating snowfall any way we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Per SV snow map. Most of NC ends up with 1-3 inches. RDU I-40 (east side) ends up 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From upper trough/backlash clown says 1-2" S from far NE GA to GSP to CLT to just N of ILM. 4-5" RDU/Brick (man I hope he doesn't see this), 3-4" James late 1/2 into 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Thanks, Burger! I must admit that I'm a little surprised that it was too warm (at least initially) looking at the free 24-hour panels (it appeared to be a pretty perfect track, IMO), but I'll take accumulating snowfall any way we can get it. It doesn't get cold enough really till about 150. The system is weak but it looks like with the energy phasing (again just guessing here) it really juices up that vortmax which allows the atmosphere to really wring out. RH isn't that great looking right now but I'll take my chances on that getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From upper trough/backlash clown says 1-2" S from far NE GA to GSP to CLT to just N of ILM. 4-5" RDU/Brick (man I hope he doesn't see this), 3-4" James late 1/2 into 1/3. WB is taking forever to update, but it seems like it snow, lightly, for 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From upper trough/backlash clown says 1-2" S from far NE GA to GSP to CLT to just N of ILM. 4-5" RDU/Brick (man I hope he doesn't see this), 3-4" James late 1/2 into 1/3. It always happens. He will cash and still be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WB is taking forever to update, but it seems like it snow, lightly, for 24 hours? Something like that. 850's are pretty cold. -4 to -8 across much of the state during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Alright well I'm off to bed folks. Let's hope we can ride this one out and get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Alright well I'm off to bed folks. Let's hope we can ride this one out and get lucky! Great pbp burger thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes, thanks for the play-by-play, folks. I probably shouldn't be, but I'm actually a little excited now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro gets some flurries deep into sc with that second deal behind the main system. not really a fan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Finally getting maps, central VA the big winner, 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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