Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 surprised not more chatter with a possible snowstorm on the horizon. I imagine folks are still on vacation ... but if the trend continues, we'll be in the middle of a mosh pit this time tomorrow. Also depends on who you go with. Some folks seem very optimistic about this potential around Jan 3 and 4, while others are really pessimistic. I think folks are skittish with the way things have gone here the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well the models have no clue whatsoever with the threat so there's nothing much to compare against. The varied solutions run to run are excruciating. Right now all we're doing is waiting until the GFS or Euro pop out a blockbuster situation and then we'll compare every run to that. Euro is too cold, GFS is not cold enough. End of disco. The models are like the Carolina basketball team this season. Never know what you are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the OP Euro is right, it's actually an amazing run because of that North trend of precip that always tends to happen. Euro is in it's golden area of forecasting, and has cold temps with a nice batch of precip to the South. This is just screaming a possible deep south snow at me showing up as we get closer. Even possibly for us. I'm with you, Shawn! I like to see a low down there, this far out. It usually means I'll be on the cold side, and better chances for sleet with a weak low, because the moisture shield nearly always comes on up by two days out. It's a long way off, so we need a lot more runs, but it's sure a possible. Meanwhile, my point forecast has gone from nothing for 10 days to over 2 inches in just a few runs, so next week everything is possible. It's Jan. and we've got a moist flow. I'm loving it. I've been thinking about your grandpa and his smoke predicting, and I think it very possible most folks back then that paid attention could ferret things out. Get that smoke to lay down nne/ne, or wsw/sw and you have big clues. If your up at 5 you note how thick the ice is in the watering trough, and how it fares during the day, and what happens to it as the clouds build in tomorrow after a ring around the moon tonight. Plus you can smell water on the wind, as well as the arctic. So many signs could tell an observant man what could happen two or three days out. At least as good as models, without satellite confirmation. If his grand dad had passed down the observations your grand dad would have had a pretty good climo data base in his head! I think it's so possible, it was probably common place around the US back before even Burns was born, lol, back in the way, way back. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 NAM still has some light precip...probably snow...across most of northern NC Monday night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 When are you talking about? Monday or Thursday? 3rd -4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm with you, Shawn! I like to see a low down there, this far out. It usually means I'll be on the cold side, and better chances for sleet with a weak low, because the moisture shield nearly always comes on up by two days out. It's a long way off, so we need a lot more runs, but it's sure a possible. Meanwhile, my point forecast has gone from nothing for 10 days to over 2 inches in just a few runs, so next week everything is possible. It's Jan. and we've got a moist flow. I'm loving it. I've been thinking about your grandpa and his smoke predicting, and I think it very possible most folks back then that paid attention could ferret things out. Get that smoke to lay down nne/ne, or wsw/sw and you have big clues. If your up at 5 you note how thick the ice is in the watering trough, and how it fares during the day, and what happens to it as the clouds build in tomorrow after a ring around the moon tonight. Plus you can smell water on the wind, as well as the arctic. So many signs could tell an observant man what could happen two or three days out. At least as good as models, without satellite confirmation. If his grand dad had passed down the observations your grand dad would have had a pretty good climo data base in his head! I think it's so possible, it was probably common place around the US back before even Burns was born, lol, back in the way, way back. Tony Back when computers weren't relied upon were better days I hear. With this little event coming up Monday night for NC. I'm not totally discounting the upstate of SC seeing a bit. 2ms were a bit tricky in almost all of NC (besides mountains) on the 00z NAM though. TN looks okay all around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm with you, Shawn! I like to see a low down there, this far out. It usually means I'll be on the cold side, and better chances for sleet with a weak low, because the moisture shield nearly always comes on up by two days out. It's a long way off, so we need a lot more runs, but it's sure a possible. Meanwhile, my point forecast has gone from nothing for 10 days to over 2 inches in just a few runs, so next week everything is possible. It's Jan. and we've got a moist flow. I'm loving it. I've been thinking about your grandpa and his smoke predicting, and I think it very possible most folks back then that paid attention could ferret things out. Get that smoke to lay down nne/ne, or wsw/sw and you have big clues. If your up at 5 you note how thick the ice is in the watering trough, and how it fares during the day, and what happens to it as the clouds build in tomorrow after a ring around the moon tonight. Plus you can smell water on the wind, as well as the arctic. So many signs could tell an observant man what could happen two or three days out. At least as good as models, without satellite confirmation. If his grand dad had passed down the observations your grand dad would have had a pretty good climo data base in his head! I think it's so possible, it was probably common place around the US back before even Burns was born, lol, back in the way, way back. Tony When smoke comes out of a chimney and then hovers close to the ground precip is coming soon. I guess everyone knows what a ring around the moon predicts. When cows lie down in the fields a storm is coming. When ants march in a line expect rain. etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 When smoke comes out of a chimney and then hovers close to the ground precip is coming soon. I guess everyone knows what a ring around the moon predicts. When cows lie down in the fields a storm is coming. When ants march in a line expect rain. etc, etc.When birds gather in Wilkesboro , it's just another day! I think the 3-4 will be our best shot for awhile. Lets keep the suppression look for 3 or 4 more days , then wait on the N trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wouldn't rule out a few token flakes for the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Expect changes to 00z GFS compared to the last couple of runs for the 2/3 period. Looks totally different at 5h and is digging a short wave with little northern interaction out at 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Something tells me this run is going to look more like the Euro. Dig baby dig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Something tells me this run is going to look more like the Euro. Dig baby dig! Yep...s/w in TX at 132 and no GL low as in previous runs. Hard to extrapolate beyond this though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Down goes the GFS. Looks much more like the Euro at 5h. Night and day vs. 18z with moisture suppressed in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yep...s/w in TX at 132 and no GL low as in previous runs. Hard to extrapolate beyond this though: Out to 144 it squashes everything but the fact is now the GFS is catching on. Can we luck out and get some moisture to spin up after the cold air gets in? We'll need some good timing but I like our odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's not often the pattern is so difficult you get such wild changes between runs within 7 days, but this is one of those times. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Down goes the GFS. Looks much more like the Euro at 5h. Night and day vs. 18z with moisture suppressed in the gulf. Some things never change! Time for the Crazy uncle to fire up the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Some things never change! Time for the Crazy uncle to fire up the weenies. I've decided to stay up for the Euro tonight. If I'm going to latch on to one storm it might as well be this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I've decided to stay up for the Euro tonight. If I'm going to latch on to one storm it might as well be this one. Will join you...looking forward to the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I've decided to stay up for the Euro tonight. If I'm going to latch on to one storm it might as well be this one. Awesome. I've got to rise and shine @ 5 a.m. but I can't wait to log in and read your post. Thanks in advance. The 2 year below normal snowfall drought has to come to an end at some point and time. Just hope it's sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's not often the pattern is so difficult you get such wild changes between runs within 7 days, but this is one of those times. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't know about that. It seems more the norm rather than anything unusual. Seven days is a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know about that. It seems more the norm rather than anything unusual. Seven days is a long time. I'm just amazed at how quick things flip in the LR on the OP models (though I shouldn't be). GFS giveth and GFS taketh away. 00z in the LR does not look good at all for the SE. Just a few days ago it looked like the Polar Express was at our doorstep and we we're talking about record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know about that. It seems more the norm rather than anything unusual. Seven days is a long time. The rain coming tomorrow into Sunday wasn't seen til Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes, the models were showing this weekend's storm as quite suppressed as well. Maybe we can get the same to happen for late this coming week. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes, the models were showing this weekend's storm as quite suppressed as well. Maybe we can get the same to happen for late this coming week. TW Well my NWS forecast for Friday Jan. 3 at the moment is, mostly sunny and 44º. I wonder how many times that will change in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well my NWS forecast for Friday Jan. 3 at the moment is, mostly sunny and 44º. I wonder how many times that will change in the next week. Mine don't look to snowy either Blacksburg is really buying the NAM right now. lol It chows me how when it's warm it's no problem to get rain, soon as it get's cold enough for snow you can't buy a storm!!!! MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS AROUND 30. .TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEW YEARS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. Of course like you said it will change 20 times by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Here's the best CMC can offer at the moment. a few might get lucky and get a few flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Mine don't look to snowy either Blacksburg is really buying the NAM right now. lol It chows me how when it's warm it's no problem to get rain, soon as it get's cold enough for snow you can't buy a storm!!!! MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS AROUND 30. .TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEW YEARS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. Of course like you said it will change 20 times by Friday. Sometime Blacksburg is one of the last to show storm for us. As DT,HM and many others have said .The models are all over the place.They will probably show something for us the night before the storm happens. I would rather see the models right when the storm arrive rather that a week out.We all know how models change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well we are in that magical time frame where the GFS loses it. This is still a long range storm. All bets are off on confidence, which cuts down on the chatter. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well we are in that magical time frame where the GFS loses it. This is still a long range storm. All bets are off on confidence, which cuts down on the chatter. Makes sense to me. There has been a lot of discussion about this over the years. I always try to reduce things to their simplest terms. For what it's worth, in this case I arrived at, "we don't pour tax money into the NWS to give us early warning of sunny weather". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 UKMet dives the northern stream in from the Pacific Northwest to the ArkLaTex. Heights relax along the east coast. Weak low tracks into Ohio. Looks like it would be Miller B-ish and a decent precip maker, but likely rain, or mix for some. Lot of options on the table here, from squash city and no storm, to amped up rain maker. Problem is, the combo of storm + cold makes up a small-ish percentage of the available options in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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