tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro ens members still look good, over half, a couple more than 0z, show snow for the area. If you have access, how do they look over the southern apps? (lighter further west, heavier east??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just looked at the indices and they are not telling us a lot. Usually you can get an idea of where we are headed, but not this time. As some have already stated, we are going to have to wait and see what happens with this current system before we can get an idea of the post-storm pattern. The AO going negative and the fact that the ensembles are showing a better set-up than what we have been dealing with, is a good thing. The first 15 days of January might be our best shot at a real winter storm in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If you have access, how do they look over the southern apps? (lighter further west, heavier east??) Definitely heavier east, DT just posted the Euro mean precip output on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS seems to be locked in to this miller B NE crush job, I keep thinking the miss will be a suppressed miss, not this miller B but GFS may score a coup on this. Classic GFS vs Euro, curious to see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 probably will trend north and west with time. from past history anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandonjva Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 probably will trend north and west with time. from past history anyway.sorry I ment reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 sorry I ment reasoning?history is on the side of north and west. how many times have we seen this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 history is on the side of north and west. how many times have we seen this scenario. Well, I believe every operational model besides the GFS shows this pretty suppressed, so that would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just a little difference between models.... the GFS does show a weaker southern disturbance at day 4 but it get's completely shredded and by day 5 it's gone while the Euro has almost a 2 contour H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 well I hope someone can finally get a nice snowstorm out of this or the next couple of disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just a little difference between models.... the GFS does show a weaker southern disturbance at day 4 but it get's completely shredded and by day 5 it's gone while the Euro has almost a 2 contour H5 low. Isn't that rather zonal? If so ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just a little difference between models.... the GFS does show a weaker southern disturbance at day 4 but it get's completely shredded and by day 5 it's gone while the Euro has almost a 2 contour H5 low. Only one little problem.... The Euro has difficulty with correctly handling energy in the southwest. Maybe this time it's right. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Tweet from Mike Dross at Wright Weather Wright-Weather.com (@Wright_Weather) 12/27/13, 16:18 18Z NAM has a little bit of #Snow for the Carolinas and the South, Monday Night, #NCwx #ALwx pic.twitter.com/wAmQvaGDpu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Tweet from Mike Dross at Wright Weather Wright-Weather.com (@Wright_Weather) 12/27/13, 16:18 18Z NAM has a little bit of #Snow for the Carolinas and the South, Monday Night, #NCwx #ALwx pic.twitter.com/wAmQvaGDpu Nice snow hole over upstate and southern piedmont! Could see that happening, it does that alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 For those of us in the Westen Piedmont and foothills regions of VA, NC, SC right NOW we are either rain or cold dry for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Isn't that rather zonal? If so ... We would like just a little SW flow, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GEFS calls BS on the Op run. Suppressed FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 For those of us in the Westen Piedmont and foothills regions of VA, NC, SC right NOW we are either rain or cold dry for now When are you talking about? Monday or Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS calls BS on the Op run. Suppressed FTW Yeah, that's been the theme for several runs now. I don't have the answer, and I'm not sure that anyone else does. Just reinforces the fact that we could see large swings in the models before we get a stable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like we could get an appetizer on New Year's Eve before the main course on Jan 3 and 4. Really like how 2014 is going to start. Here is what NC Piedmont Weather had to say on facebook. Significant Winter Storm POSSIBLE on January 3-4...See the weather maps from the 12z runs...It is important to use only the ensemble models during this progressive and hectic pattern change as the operational models will misread things most times until within 48-60 hours of the event...NOT a forecast but definitely looking like it has the POTENTIAL to become a much larger system than previously thought but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hour 150 looks interesting. Might have some diffluential help from a jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We would like just a little SW flow, that's for sure. 500mb right now -- looks like a SW flow with a broad low trying to form in the deep SW -- let's see what happens (this is not a model but current obs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 in just looking at the water vapor loop, thought i saw a swirl over central texas, that you posted gives a better view of it, that is an upper air feature isnt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Nice snow hole over upstate and southern piedmont! Could see that happening, it does that alot Sad thing is I agree about it if the nam holds true and this does come to fruition then it will be a mainly light snow. Narrow band possibly feature lee side development and the snow shadow along the foothills. That band would have the potential to setup in S VA to RDU going S/E. But then again also possible for nothing at all. But there is also potential of it being stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1053 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013VALID 12Z MON DEC 30 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014...WINTRY PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...USED THE 00Z/27 ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-5,SWITCHING TO THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO MITIGATE THEINCREASING SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AT THAT TIME RANGE.THE 00Z/27 AND 06Z/27 MODEL CYCLES SAW A REVERSAL IN POSITIONS OFTHE GFS CAMP VERSUS THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FROM YESTERDAY, WITH THEGFS WARMING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY DAY 6 AND THE ECMWF ANDECENS MEAN COOLING THE SAME REGION. TRIED TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITHTHE MANUAL CHOICES FROM YESTERDAY. BESIDES THE NEXT ARCTICONSLAUGHT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND SAINT LAWRENCEVALLEY, IT APPEARS AS IF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BE MOREVULNERABLE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW DAYS 6 AND 7. ROUGHLY TWENTYPERCENT OF THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEMBERS INDICATE BETTER THAN AHALF-INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THAT REGION. A COUPLE MEMBERSDEPICT A MAJOR SNOWSTORM. FOR NOW, WILL REFLECT A MODESTQUARTER-INCH FOR THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE 00Z/28 DAYS 6-7 QPF.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Nice snow hole over upstate and southern piedmont! Could see that happening, it does that alotYea not sure why he made Carolina plural?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 surprised not more chatter with a possible snowstorm on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 surprised not more chatter with a possible snowstorm on the horizon. I imagine folks are still on vacation ... but if the trend continues, we'll be in the middle of a mosh pit this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 surprised not more chatter with a possible snowstorm on the horizon. Only 2 of the 12 18z GFS Ensemble members on EWall had a winter storm and both of those were a wintry mix. The Euro Op offered the best potential with the wave getting deposited into northern Mexico - from there it would need to proceed east without getting squashed (NW flow over the northeast U.S. associated with the PV in SE Canada needs to relax - not impossible, but going to be tough)...and as CAD Wedge mentioned, that's a known Euro bias to deposit lows in the southwest, so you have to wonder whether that will really happen. The UKMet was fairly similar, but it quickly squashes the wave as well as it starts to move east out of northern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 surprised not more chatter with a possible snowstorm on the horizon. Well the models have no clue whatsoever with the threat so there's nothing much to compare against. The varied solutions run to run are excruciating. Right now all we're doing is waiting until the GFS or Euro pop out a blockbuster situation and then we'll compare every run to that. Euro is too cold, GFS is not cold enough. End of disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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