Southern Track Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Thought the same thing. A vast difference from the 0z and 6z runs. Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm. However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim. I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore. The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains. Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Bastardi now concerned about a problem showing up in the 8 to 12 day period that would bring warmth back into the East Subscribers will want to give it a read. My feeling is mid January we will be looking for the last 30 days of true winter to deliver. We have had little below 0c 850hpa temperatures to dig southward into NC so far with any staying power. The escape chute to the NE is wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Check out the 250 jet streak around hour 144 and forward. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm. However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim. I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore. The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains. Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold! At 168, there's a little snow breaking out in NC and VA. Cold coming in as the system develops off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Wholesale changes on the GFS for the 1/2 1/3 system. Better look than 6z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm. However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim. I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore. The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains. Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold! From my layman's perspective...the GFS needs to lose the first low it develops around IN/IL at hour 132. That thing has got to go if we are to have a chance. To me, that thing looks spurious as it is, but I suppose time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Check out the 250 jet streak around hour 144 and forward. Pretty impressive.so with no -nao how long before this is a paste bomb for us with a low sitting over bricks house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 At 168, there's a little snow breaking out in NC and VA. Cold coming in as the system develops off the coast. f168.gif Yeah, that's a Raleigh east type of signature so congrats to you!! Charlotte and west is usually out of the game by the time it gets to the coast. We're still early, but I'd like to see our ridge sharpen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 so with no -nao how long before this is a paste bomb for us with a low sitting over bricks house? It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this as a "paste bomb" for someone in the southeast/upper south as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this as a "paste bomb" for someone in the southeast/upper south as we get closer. What's a paste bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah, that's a Raleigh east type of signature so congrats to you!! Charlotte and west is usually out of the game by the time it gets to the coast. We're still early, but I'd like to see our ridge sharpen up. Yeah, and it'll change a bunch more. Congrats Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What's a paste bomb?a heavy wet snow that falls with temps just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What's a paste bomb? I am wondering if the next 7 days is our opportunity to score before we have to cycle through another re-shuffle to get into a good pattern. I liked the Euro ensemble look, but these OP's are really struggling with HUGE run to run changes. As for paste bomb........It was Franklin's term..............I am guessing it's a wind whipped snow while temps hover around 32/33 that sticks to absolutely EVERYTHING, but you'd have to ask him for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z GFS builds a signifcant -AO this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 a heavy wet snow that falls with temps just above freezing. Ah, yes. I'd like one of those! Thus the LOW needs to be located somewhere in SE SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Nothing new but this sums it up for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z GFS builds a signifcant -AO this run. Unfortunately the Atlantic is crap, and has been for some time, doesn't look like that will be changing anytime soon either. Until it gets better we are going to be dependent on the pacific and begging for 1-2" events. The GEFS members for the 1/3 event were not great, a lot had a primary to the north which we can't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 About to get warm after the PV erodes. looking at the models. I see nothing exciting winter precip-wise for non-mtn/foothills locations in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 As we wait for the EURO...DT is touting the differences between the OP GFS with its ensembles. He's going all in, it seems, on a snow storm for NC/VA Jan. 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12Z Euro per the 132 hour map, looks to be a close call to a good setup for 1/2-3. We do have a Miller A then. Will it dampen out or get the moisture to the SE. We'll see! Regardless, it is a nice step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 About to get warm after the PV erodes. looking at the models. I see nothing exciting winter precip-wise for non-mtn/foothills locations in NC. I think we need to get something next week or we're looking at the mid to late January (at least) for our next wintery threat. The PNA now looks bad in the LR with a decidedly negative look. As others have stated the AO still looks good but that will not help the SE without the PNA or NAO on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 As we wait for the EURO...DT is touting the differences between the OP GFS with its ensembles. He's going all in, it seems, on a snow storm for NC/VA Jan. 2-3. Doesn't sound like it. He has "Maybe" in big font, bold, color red, followed by "1st chance of the season still a ways to go". We don't even have DT at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12Z Euro per the 132 hour map, looks to be a close call to a good setup for 1/2-3. We do have a Miller A then. Will it dampen out or get the moisture to the SE. We'll see! Regardless, it is a nice step in the right direction! 144 looks nice, 1041 H in Wisconsin, and lower pressures along the gulf coast south of Louisana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Doesn't sound like it. He has "Maybe" in big font, bold, color red, followed by "1st chance of the season still a ways to go". We don't even have DT at this point. Just reading between the lines...which is important to do with DT, because he then says things like this (quoted from the comments section): "what u see and read here wont be on any TV weather for 3 days or more.." In any case, what he is saying about the ensembles has been said by other respected mets plus our own Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 144 looks nice, 1041 H in Wisconsin, and lower pressures along the gulf coast south of Louisana. It never made it further north than the southern Gulf coast states because of westerly 500 mb flow instead of WSW flow, but this is the best Euro op. run yet and a close call. QPF from this very weak Miller A is quite plentiful with 1-3" over the N GOM as well as over SE TX, LA, far SW MS, and parts of N FL. We need to keep watching 1/2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looks like it kept the NS separate from the SS and the SS gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The good news is the EURO does not have that surface low in the midwest on day 6 like the GFS. That will help if a storm does materialize in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Squashed. Im sure the next rain storm will be amped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The good news is the EURO does not have that surface low in the midwest on day 6 like the GFS. That will help if a storm does materialize in the south. Yep. Would rather take my chances with suppression moving north on the Euro than the GFS moving south in its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.