franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Few Sref members support the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I wouldn't believe any model supporting any type of snow under 3000 ft unless there is some type of miraculous cold air intrusion, which isn't on anyone's forecast right now. I take it you are referring to Dec 31 For Jan 2, by my count, there were 6 of the 12 GFS Ensemble members on EWall showing wintry precip for some part of the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 00z isn't doing us any favors with the New Years day storm. 5h is a mess. I think a lot of it has to do with the most juiced up parcel of energy going due south into western Mexico and not getting picked up by the energy diving into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Is this weekend rainevent going to usher in the colder air for the Monday threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Shortwave not nearly as sharp for Dec 31 on 00z GFS. 700mb RH substantially weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Is this weekend rainevent going to usher in the colder air for the Monday threat Yes, colder air begins to work in on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Is this weekend rainevent going to usher in the colder air for the Monday threat While it's raining Sunday in my area on this side of the wedge we will barely be in the lower 40's while an inch of qpf falls, while on the other side temps will make a run at 60 with rain. Then Sunday night/Mon a.m. cold front will sweep w-e across the Carolinas/GA as weekend storm departs bringing in slightly below temps @ 850 and 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is going amped and warmer with the next system...but damming in place at hr150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs looks to have a rain storm incoming. Sw diving down hardly digs and looks to pass north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Ridging is flat in British Columbia and SE Canada PV lobe has retreated more to the NE at hr150. That's not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I bet there is some icing in NC east of the mtns on that run, but I haven't looked at soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Guess we can call that a miller c? Congrats New England lol from nothing to an amped solution in one run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 0z gfs looks mighty warm towards the end of the run w/ trough out west. Who knows if it's right but I'm not really liking the long range trends I'm seeing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 0z gfs looks mighty warm towards the end of the run w/ trough out west. Who knows if it's right but I'm not really liking the long range trends I'm seeing on the models. Lets get through the next 5 - 7 days, H5 is a mess through the period, which matches up well with a NH picture that is anything but stable... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You never see "better snow" with temps that warm. The snow won't accumulate with temps in the mid-30s unless rates are very high. You get a lot of melting in the lower atmosphere which cuts down on totals. On the other hand though, I have seen a foot of snow with temps in the mid 30's. In Greenwood, SC in January of 2000, after a night of soaking rain, we had a foot of snow the next day and it never got below 35 or 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 0Z Euro: completely different from 12Z Euro for 1/2 but not quite there yet it appears. Tells me there's lots of uncertainty for 1/2. Let's see how the run proceeds. Colder/stronger Arctic high to the north and much more moisture in the GOM, but they're not quite colliding as the 500 mb flow is too dry/WNW over the SE. It needs to be WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Man, it figures. The zmonster loves Jan. Figures the cad would show up. If we are looking a possibles a long way off then you have to think about zrain in early Jan. The storms that have showed up around the first week, have been good looking from time to time, and if those highs move around right, and aren't over hyped on cold, it's the right time for it. Oh, well, things will shuffle around until the final ping pong ball goes shoothp into the tube. I'm trying to concentrate on 3 days in, and I'm gonna have another chance at some good rain, and I'm ready. That recent big mole rain just whetted my appetite for the wet gold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Folks, For those rooting for there to actually be a 1/2 SE wintry event, there's some decent news regarding the 12z Euro ensemble vs. the 12Z Euro op. run. Per the ~50 member mean, the 48 hour QPF for the period 12Z on 1/1 to 12Z on 1/3 is 0.25" at Jackson, MS, ~0.20" at BHM, and 0.15-.25" in all of GA/SC/NC. This compares to virtually no QPF on the 12Z op. Euro. Many/most runs appear to have little to no precip. So, that means that some must have pretty ample precip. to allow 0.15-0.25" average amounts over 50 members. The track of the precip. is suggestive of mainly a Miller A for those runs that generate precip. Also, the ensemble mean flow at 500 mb is W vs. the op.'s drier WNW. The mean flow actually has a few members with moist WSW flow. These are undoubtedly the ones generating decent precip. and with a Miller A. At 850, it is slightly colder on the ensemble mean during the crucial 1/2 period vs. the op. run with the 0C line from the N burbs of ATL to Columbia to Wilmington and the -4C line from Asheville to RDU vs. the op.'s 0C line being from Chat. to Charlotte to Wilmington and its -4C line near the NC/Va border. The 0Z Euro ensemble was actually similar but slightly wetter/warmer vs. the 12Z Euro ensemble mean and much wetter than the 0Z Euro op.'s very dry run. So, in summary, the 0Z and 12Z Euro ensemble runs suggest to continue watching the period around 1/2 for some potential SE wintry magic since several members do suggest a GOM low with cold enough air to threaten wintry precip. Folks, It is super late. So, this will be brief. Quite simply, the 0Z Euro ensemble is even more encouraging than the prior (12Z Thu) run for 1/2-3. 850's and surface are slightly colder compliments of a stronger/colder Arctic high to the north and the mean QPF is much higher compliments of a more moist 500 mb mean flow: it is 0.35-0.50" in nearly all of NC/SC/GA vs. the 0.15-0.25" of the prior run. So, it is about twice as wet! There are even more members with moist WSW flow and the suggestion of a suppressed/weak/wet Miller A low. Stay tuned to this subforum for more updates as they become available. Nighty night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Well GFS,Euro a disaster with the 12/31 system... non existent really. But Nam,DGex,GGEM continue to indicated some flakes for the SE. Considering that nam was a further west outlier with yesterdays minor icing event would say its too early to totally dismiss the idea altogether... onto the 12zs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Lets get through the next 5 - 7 days, H5 is a mess through the period, which matches up well with a NH picture that is anything but stable... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php So true. Thats what I don't understand why so many people look at the 240+ hour runs. They ultimately set their selves up for a huge dissappointment in the long run. The weather is too chaotic to put much stock into models 150 hours out. Now I could see if there is strong agreement if something shows between 200-240 and holds steady sort of like early Nov... but recently its not been like that. But we all need to get through this weekends inch plus rainstorm and possibly 12/31 before looking further ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 As others have stated, 0z and 6z GFS did not look good. If you take the 6z at face value parts of NC may see some snow flurries/showers on the 31st but that would be it. The next system pushes towards the lakes leaving us in the warm sector. It briefly gets cold after that but then warms up. Not sure if I buy this but we have to consider the possibility. Still time for the early January system to trend in our favor, but were now within 7 days and the models will start to lock on one solution or the other in another two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 So what's right for next week, GFS or Euro? GFS showing the lakes cutter now, and the Euro is suppressed. Astronomical differences right now, but I guess that's not unusual. A compromise towards the Euro would be beneficial. I have a feeling with the lack of a -NAO the GFS could be more accurate. Matthew East did day he was going with a dry solution with a good shot ofcold air for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Today the ao is about neutral and continues its downward trend. It is forecasted to go moderately negative by all global ensembles and stay there till the end of the ensemble runs. The nao is still forecasted to go negative by the New year by all ensembles that signal is not as strong as the ao however. Still no sign of the southeast ridge returning. Thanks to the Scandinavian ridge moving east. So in summary a big change in the northern hemisphere pattern from two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 everyday I get up and look on here and hope I see some encouraging words about one of the future storms coming up showing snow now instead of rain and its the same old thing cold and dry or warm and wet. something has to give eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Today the ao is about neutral and continues its downward trend. It is forecasted to go moderately negative by all global ensembles and stay there till the end of the ensemble runs. The nao is still forecasted to go negative by the New year by all ensembles that signal is not as strong as the ao however. Still no sign of the southeast ridge returning. Thanks to the Scandinavian ridge moving east. So in summary a big change in the northern hemisphere pattern from two weeks ago. Yep, all the indexes appear to be heading in the right direction in the LR. But instead if seeing cold on the models 10+ days out! it looks warm. Of course, this is on the operationals only. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet. And the CFS for January looks cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 everyday I get up and look on here and hope I see some encouraging words about one of the future storms coming up showing snow now instead of rain and its the same old thing cold and dry or warm and wet. something has to give eventually.it looks the the rain on sunday will be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If you're brave enough to buy into 84 hours on the NAM it looks night and day vs. the 6z GFS at 5h for the New Years day "threat". The 6z NAM sends some energy diving into west Texas for another piece to come in on it's heels and scoot due east. Check out the differences at 84. 6z GFS 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 it looks the the rain on sunday will be a cold rain.yep looks like again we barely miss a good snowstorm, in this case it will be cold and wet but not cold enough. go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm really interested in what the Euro ENS might be seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 yep looks like again we barely miss a good snowstorm, in this case it will be cold and wet but not cold enough. go figure. typical CAD setup. As normal my neck of the woods(MIDDLE stated below) will be on the edge of the wedge front. From RAH: AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW/MID 40S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW/MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE MIDDLE...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF BUST POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOW A RAPIDLY ADVANCING DRY SLOT ON THE HEELS OF THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING. -SMITH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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