Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

That's a bold statement. What are you basing that on?..... I would give it a 5% chance of verifying and that's being generous. It would be rare to get the coldest temps of the winter in November... It could have happened here in 1950. I will have to check, but again, it's rare.

 

Edit:

 

Did a little research.........Charlotte has recorded a low of 19 degrees twice this month. According to climo, there is an 83% chance that they will see temperatures of less than 16 degrees between the dates of Jan 7th and Feb 3rd...... There is a 97 % chance of seeing temps below 20 degrees again for the winter between Dec 23rd and Feb 8th. So, there is only a 3% chance that we have seen our coldest weather of the winter. That's pretty slim odds.

[NCSNOW]

Major to historic Carolina snowstorm (mainly NC and N SC) 12/8-9 on 0Z gfs fwiw per clown. Heaviest 8-12" Charlotte to Brick's place.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on this time frame 12/8-12/11 early next week. Not the first run to show the potential for a threat. Should see some cold working it's way into the eastern conus by this time frame along with the potential for some over runing moisture.

[Wow]

It will be interesting to keep an eye on this time frame 12/8-12/11 early next week. Not the first run to show the potential for a threat. Should see some cold working it's way into the eastern conus by this time frame along with the potential for some over runing moisture.

 

6z switches it to an ice storm for the NC foothills/W piedmont. Still a real threat here.  GFS does pull the PV in SE Canada so we have a confluence zone in place while these shortwaves roll through. Sure would like to see this stick around Still need more definitive evidence of Greenland blocking to park these features in place for a while.  Everything still in and out.

 

[tarheelwx]

Defenitely an icy look.  No sign of cold locking in for December. 

TW

[GaWx]

Don S. has just respoken. When Don speaks, weenies often don't listen lol. Has warmed his outlook for December and now has the SE and Mid Atlantic warmer than normal due to the cold anomalies out west having trouble getting in enough to overcome a warmer mid to late month as the EPO finally rises and the AO stays up. He previously had the SE near normal and the MidAtlantic colder than normal. It is hard to bet against Mr. S as his record has been stunningly accurate relative to people like JB. Assuming this occurs, enjoy the outdoors during the expected mild interlude of mid to late month (after one more potential wintry precip. event some areas within ~12/7-11 and look forward to more cold later in winter. I have a feeling January will have some wintry fun as is often the case during the longterm normally coldest month. It almost never stays cold down in the SE anyway save a 1976-7, 1977-8, 1935-6, or a couple other very rare cases, mainly during weak El Ninos. We're neutral this winter. 1935-6 was a very rare neutral winter with cold very dominant.

[Cold Rain]

Don S. has just respoken. When Don speaks, weenies often don't listen lol. Has warmed his outlook for December and now has the SE and Mid Atlantic warmer than normal due to the cold anomalies out west having trouble getting in enough to overcome a warmer mid to late month as the EPO finally rises and the AO stays up. He previously had the SE near normal and the MidAtlantic colder than normal. It is hard to bet against Mr. S as his record has been stunningly accurate relative to people like JB. Assuming this occurs, enjoy the outdoors during the expected mild interlude of mid to late month (after one more potential wintry precip. event some areas within ~12/7-11 and look forward to more cold later in winter. I have a feeling January will have some wintry fun as is often the case during the longterm normally coldest month. It almost never stays cold down in the SE anyway save a 1976-7, 1977-8, 1935-6, or a couple other very rare cases, mainly during weak El Ninos. We're neutral this winter. 1935-6 was a very rare neutral winter with cold very dominant.

Yep, if you want to avoid pain, stay away from the main page. However, that Don reversed his call for December speaks to the perplexing quality of the atmosphere this year. I hope that we're not mild for Christmas.

[JoMo]

Don S. has just respoken. When Don speaks, weenies often don't listen lol. Has warmed his outlook for December and now has the SE and Mid Atlantic warmer than normal due to the cold anomalies out west having trouble getting in enough to overcome a warmer mid to late month as the EPO finally rises and the AO stays up. He previously had the SE near normal and the MidAtlantic colder than normal. It is hard to bet against Mr. S as his record has been stunningly accurate relative to people like JB. Assuming this occurs, enjoy the outdoors during the expected mild interlude of mid to late month (after one more potential wintry precip. event some areas within ~12/7-11 and look forward to more cold later in winter. I have a feeling January will have some wintry fun as is often the case during the longterm normally coldest month. It almost never stays cold down in the SE anyway save a 1976-7, 1977-8, 1935-6, or a couple other very rare cases, mainly during weak El Ninos. We're neutral this winter. 1935-6 was a very rare neutral winter with cold very dominant.

 

That's because Don has 'flip flopped' and went warm, cold, warm depending on what the teleconnections do or will do and if they change, his forecast will change accordingly. That's about as good as you can get with long range forecasting though.  The Euro backs the ridge over AK off to the northwest allowing more influence from the SE ridge as time goes on. Not sure if this is a temporary thing or if it will reestablish itself.  The CFS v2 has been pretty useless and a few runs ago it showed a torch across much of the US, and more recent runs have been showing a near repeat of next weeks cold in about the same places in a few weeks. 

[Tacoma]

If we have to be warm I'll take it as long as we have snow for Christmas.   

[packbacker]

KOD....The GFS does look interesting day 8/9 for ice/snow.

[Cold Rain]

KOD....The GFS does look interesting day 8/9 for ice/snow.

Inside Day 10. It's on now!

[FallsLake]

KOD....The GFS does look interesting day 8/9 for ice/snow.

It is a very good run. It depicts a rain to ice to snow situation. This would be a case where the SE ridge helps by forcing an overrunning scenario with a cold arctic high pushing in from the NW. I wish we were closer to the event. Need to get this within 5-6 days to stop the (wide)model swings.   

[franklin NCwx]

Inside Day 10. It's on now!

start the thread. Have you heard? Winter is over after next week.

[swva]

This looks like a great run for snow/ice for all of us.  And we are getting inside that 10 day window..  Could be some prolonged wintery weather starting Dec. 8 or so.. Liking our chance more and more.

[packbacker]

Inside Day 10. It's on now!

 

Then there is the day 10/11 event too.  Just love watching the GFS, it's so easy to get a winter storm.

[Cold Rain]

start the thread. Have you heard? Winter is over after next week.

 

Ha!  That's what I keep hearing.  From a sensible standpoint, it is probably wise to forecast a warmer than normal winter, IMO.  But, even if we do get a mild winter overall, I think it's likely that there will be enough variability to offer winter storm chances.  Just the fact that we're at least seeing fantasy storms is a good sign.

 

Regarding the next "threat", we need to fully expect the cold air to bleed east of the Apps slower than the GFS is showing.  You can see that it brings it in very, very slow already, but then right after truncation, whoosh, it blasts in.  That's an error, IMO.  It will tend to bring cold in too fast and suppress the flow.  I see two scenarios here:

 

1) The cold is modeled to come in too quickly.  The reality will be that the waves will exit the area before the cold gets in, meaning rain for areas of the SE east of the Apps.

 

2) The model is correct in bringing in the cold in time.  If that happens, then I would expect to see a colder solution as we get closer, meaning a widespread winter storm.

 

I don't think a cutter is on the table at this point.  Right now, I would lean toward option one...at least until we get inside of 5 days.

 

Edit:  I do like the model's consistency, though.  Also, it does not look bad in the LR either.

[GaWx]

The 12z gfs has snow for all of nc, s va and N sc on 12/8. It has major (4"+) for the E half of NC with maxes in the 6-8 range! Ga/Tn and west is largely shutout. Then it looks like light snow changing to ip/zr to rain for WNC 12/10. NC the big winner!

[mackerel_sky]

The 12z gfs has snow for all of nc, s va and N sc on 12/8. It has major (4"+) for the E half of NC with maxes in the 6-8 range! Ga/Tn and west is largely shutout. Then it looks like light snow changing to ip/zr to rain for WNC 12/10. NC the big winner!

. It's not good to be the winner this far out! Lol. The most recent example was the earlier in November snow , where the models showed the upstate of SC was the bullseye for 4 or 5 days in a row! Come event time, I think we were the only spot in SC to not see snow

[WXinCanton]

I wouldn't name a winner yet.  This system is still a twinkle in the GFS's eyes.  First we need some more models to come aboard with it

[dsaur]

Ga. shut out, and a warmer Dec?  Ok, by inverse contrarianism, look out Ga., and SE look for near 0 temps after Xmas!

[SnowNiner]

Then there is the day 10/11 event too. Just love watching the GFS, it's so easy to get a winter storm.

Not the last two years it hasn't been. Couldn't buy agood fantasy storm. Seeing one inside 10 days is gold.

I agree with cr though, probably be a cold chasing rain event,just like the last one.

[Carvers Gap]

Don S. has just respoken. When Don speaks, weenies often don't listen lol. Has warmed his outlook for December and now has the SE and Mid Atlantic warmer than normal due to the cold anomalies out west having trouble getting in enough to overcome a warmer mid to late month as the EPO finally rises and the AO stays up. He previously had the SE near normal and the MidAtlantic colder than normal. It is hard to bet against Mr. S as his record has been stunningly accurate relative to people like JB. Assuming this occurs, enjoy the outdoors during the expected mild interlude of mid to late month (after one more potential wintry precip. event some areas within ~12/7-11 and look forward to more cold later in winter. I have a feeling January will have some wintry fun as is often the case during the longterm normally coldest month. It almost never stays cold down in the SE anyway save a 1976-7, 1977-8, 1935-6, or a couple other very rare cases, mainly during weak El Ninos. We're neutral this winter. 1935-6 was a very rare neutral winter with cold very dominant.

What was his November forecast? Edit: It was warm and a big bust on the forecast contest. DonS is a great LR forecaster, and I put more stock in him than anyone...but seems to have a bit of a warm bias lately. December probably will go warmer than normal...but this pattern is not written in stone like it was last winter. He rides the AO pretty heavily...but this pattern looks blocky. Could easily go east or west with cold...no torch it appears.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z gfs has snow for all of nc, s va and N sc on 12/8. It has major (4"+) for the E half of NC with maxes in the 6-8 range! Ga/Tn and west is largely shutout. Then it looks like light snow changing to ip/zr to rain for WNC 12/10. NC the big winner!

As much as models are flip-flopping around...it would be unwise to buy any solution at this point. There is a different solution every run.

[jburns]

Edit:

 

Did a little research.........Charlotte has recorded a low of 19 degrees twice this month. According to climo, there is an 83% chance that they will see temperatures of less than 16 degrees between the dates of Jan 7th and Feb 3rd...... There is a 97 % chance of seeing temps below 20 degrees again for the winter between Dec 23rd and Feb 8th. So, there is only a 3% chance that we have seen our coldest weather of the winter. That's pretty slim odds.

 

I'm curious how far back you went and if it was since records have been kept, what would change percentage wise if you only took the last 30 years.

[GaWx]

What was his November forecast? Edit: It was warm and a big bust on the forecast contest. DonS is a great LR forecaster, and I put more stock in him than anyone...but seems to have a bit of a warm bias lately. December probably will go warmer than normal...but this pattern is not written in stone like it was last winter. He rides the AO pretty heavily...but this pattern looks blocky. Could easily go east or west with cold...no torch it appears.

 

1) I feel he's pretty objective/levelheaded/nonhyper, unlike people like JB. He's also a very clear communicator and has a great attitude. However, yes he's far from perfect. Regardless, even if Dec. comes out on the mild side overall, it shouldn't be that warm and there still looks to be some chill and a wintry precip. threat early month. Also, I fully expect more cold and wintry opportunities in Jan. and/or Feb. Overall, I've been going near normal temp.'s overall consistent with many neutral ENSO winters (lots of back and forth) and a decent shot at at least one sig. winter storm for many. So, a warmer latter half of Dec. won't cause me to fret at all since it is perfectly normal in the SE to get mild interludes.

 

2) I'm not buying the 12Z gfs solution by any means. I was just saying NC is the big winner on that run..that's all! It could turn out to be a big nothing (very possible) or it could be more widespread (smaller chance imo).

[BullCityWx]

12z Euro thinks we have a shot at breaking some record high minimum temperatures next week.

[BullCityWx]

As a matter of fact, there could be 3 consecutive days of record high minimum temps in Charlotte.

I am solidly on the Don Sutherland train. I don't think the cold ever makes it across the mountains.

[BullCityWx]

We could end up +4 or +5 for December after the first 10 days if the euro is right.

[Carvers Gap]

1) I feel he's pretty objective/levelheaded/nonhyper, unlike people like JB. He's also a very clear communicator and has a great attitude. However, yes he's far from perfect. Regardless, even if Dec. comes out on the mild side overall, it shouldn't be that warm and there still looks to be some chill and a wintry precip. threat early month. Also, I fully expect more cold and wintry opportunities in Jan. and/or Feb. Overall, I've been going near normal temp.'s overall consistent with many neutral ENSO winters (lots of back and forth) and a decent shot at at least one sig. winter storm for many. So, a warmer latter half of Dec. won't cause me to fret at all since it is perfectly normal in the SE to get mild interludes.

 

2) I'm not buying the 12Z gfs solution by any means. I was just saying NC is the big winner on that run..that's all! It could turn out to be a big nothing (very possible) or it could be more widespread (smaller chance imo).

Like I said...Don is who I put the most stock in. Maybe he is banking on the first week being so warm that the anomalies will be tough to erase. There is so much cold air around...just seems like it will balance out. I could see a slightly warmer than normal month with several winter events in the south. The weak solar cycle will come into play at some point I think. I also agree Don doesn't hype. I cut my JB subscription when he left AccWx. Though, I do follow him on Twitter and DT. They are both looking at next weekend as a potential event for someone from TX to md-Atlantic. Ice mainly. I do think November was a bust for most, including me.

[Carvers Gap]

As a matter of fact, there could be 3 consecutive days of record high minimum temps in Charlotte.

I am solidly on the Don Sutherland train. I don't think the cold ever makes it across the mountains.

And you will probably be correct. It is a numbers thing, like taking the team that has a big lead into halftime. Let's not forget that a good chunk of the SE is west of the Apps though. Memphis could have a banner month and maybe some of the western areas of the SE. The Euro hasn't been exactly stellar either. I will gladly take a warm start to December if the middle and late portions of the month are cold, no matter where the average ends .

[NCCatawba]

 

WxSouth

about an hour ago

•   GFS now paints harsh Winter pattern most of US coming up. Matches December wx models, ensembles, and Euro. Lots of big cAk. High prssure

 

•  

 

I agree with this guy to some degree. I still think its just driven by chance if the cold tangles with the moisture, which is increasingly likely given the subtropical jetstream being active in December.