Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Poimen]

DGEX anyone?

 

 

[Poimen]

[WidreMann]

Here in the upstate if the upper levels is cold enough we can see our better snows with sfc temps in the mid 30s

You never see "better snow" with temps that warm. The snow won't accumulate with temps in the mid-30s unless rates are very high. You get a lot of melting in the lower atmosphere which cuts down on totals.

[Bsudweather]

You never see "better snow" with temps that warm. The snow won't accumulate with temps in the mid-30s unless rates are very high. You get a lot of melting in the lower atmosphere which cuts down on totals.

Yea I should have made myself more clear, yes it does have to be heavy enough, but I have seen our bigger snows around 35 but rates were on up there.

[NEGa]

Here in the upstate if the upper levels is cold enough we can see our better snows with sfc temps in the mid 30s

 true - and same here in ne ga sometimes.  we can get the bigger impressive flakes even 32-34...and if it can fall hard enough long enough can even end up whitening the ground lol (anyone in the north stop laughing. this is the se remember haha).  even better falls hard enough to drop the temp just below freezing

[WidreMann]

Yea I should have made myself more clear, yes it does have to be heavy enough, but I have seen our bigger snows around 35 but rates were on up there.

Even if it's heavy enough, it still doesn't accumulate well, melts very quickly when the precip slows, and is sloppy and wet. I wouldn't call that good snow at all.

[Bsudweather]

Even if it's heavy enough, it still doesn't accumulate well, melts very quickly when the precip slows, and is sloppy and wet. I wouldn't call that good snow at all.

Any snow around this neck of the woods is a good snow. LOL!!

[BullCityWx]

Looking at the sounding, there's no significant dew point depression either. If you start out warm and don't have evaporational cooling on your side, you're screwed.

[jburns]

Even if it's heavy enough, it still doesn't accumulate well, melts very quickly when the precip slows, and is sloppy and wet. I wouldn't call that good snow at all.

Snow rate can trump everything else.

[NCStateMMY]

Snow rate can trump everything else.

Prime example: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/

[WidreMann]

Snow rate can trump everything else.

For the 15 minutes it's snowing heavily, but if it lets up, then you will be getting rain and lots of melting. Even with a heavy rate, it's tough to get more than 1/2" to 1" per hour with temps above freezing.

[GaffneyPeach]

Snow rate can trump everything else.

That is a fact. I have seen it more than once. Get under a good deformation band with warm-ish temps and a warm ground and see what happens.

He ain't lyin'!!

[SN_Lover]

Prime example: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100302/

I remember that system. during the day little accumulation was observed because of the sun and high temps, but as the sun set and the system was still precipitating over the eastern Piedmont accumulations was observed because temps were lowering. 

  <- remember what happened there? 

[jburns]

For the 15 minutes it's snowing heavily, but if it lets up, then you will be getting rain and lots of melting. Even with a heavy rate, it's tough to get more than 1/2" to 1" per hour with temps above freezing.

 

I've been in more snow that you've wished for. I'm not talking about those Chapel Hill flizzards, I mean a snowstorm.  I watched it accumulate at a 3" per hour rate all day after an all night rain and the temp never got below 34º. Oh, before you bring sun angle into the discussion, the date was April 28th.  Lest you think I was in Alaska, the state was Virginia.

[WidreMann]

I've been in more snow that you've wished for. I'm not talking about those Chapel Hill flizzards, I mean a snowstorm.  I watched it accumulate at a 3" per hour rate all day after an all night rain and the temp never got below 34º. Oh, before you bring sun angle into the discussion, the date was April 28th.  Lest you think I was in Alaska, the state was Virginia.

Those are pretty rare, and I still wouldn't classify those as good snows, just snows that ended up not being absolutely nothing at all.

[NCCatawba]

I know some mets in the past have said wait until the storm system (this weekend as an example) gets by us first before putting any stock in post winter weather systems. Several of us are looking at +2" of rainfall. Afterwards, things could look totally different and with much less disagreement for some to squeeze some dandruff out of the sky.

[Cold Rain]

These snow rate/boundary layer temp debates are useless because there is no right answer. There are enough scenarios, that meet those conditions, that can occur so that any point of view can potentially be correct. If it snows at 40 and you don't get any accumulation, that sucks. But it doesn't suck as bad as no snow at all. And if it snows at 35 and you get a slushy inch, well it's better than snow at 40 but not as good as snow at 33 and two inches, which is not as good as a foot of snow at 25. If you're going to compare everything to the latter, then you're not going to find a lot of satisfaction in winter in the southeast.

[franklin NCwx]

Those are pretty rare, and I still wouldn't classify those as good snows, just snows that ended up not being absolutely nothing at all.

those type of snow happen here all the time. Of course I have elevation but our best snows are when we ride the line. Usually from amped systems tho.

[FLweather]

I know its too early to be saying congrats to people... and this is the Nam.

 

But the 18z I've noticed that it really tries to get a stronger system going for the 12/31.

 

Maybe or maybe not the euro, gfs catches on... but can't deny this is a very interesting look to it.

 

[franklin NCwx]

These snow rate/boundary layer temp debates are useless because there is no right answer. There are enough scenarios, that meet those conditions, that can occur so that any point of view can potentially be correct. If it snows at 40 and you don't get any accumulation, that sucks. But it doesn't suck as bad as no snow at all. And if it snows at 35 and you get a slushy inch, well it's better than snow at 40 but not as good as snow at 33 and two inches, which is not as good as a foot of snow at 25. If you're going to compare everything to the latter, then you're not going to find a lot of satisfaction in winter in the southeast.

care to extrapolate the 84 hour nam? It looks potent with that nye wave!

[Poimen]

The 84 hour NAM looks promising, for sure.

[GaffneyPeach]

Those are pretty rare, and I still wouldn't classify those as good snows, just snows that ended up not being absolutely nothing at all.

They are rare. I'll give you that. Last February is a prime example of a 'good' one. Stray flurries were forecast but when that band came over it dumped 4 inches in two hours...mid afternoon! The sun came out afterwards which made for an amazing sunset. That snow will go down as one of my all-time favorites. Those flakes were huge and they stuck to everything. It lasted most of the next day. I loved that one for sure.

[Cold Rain]

care to extrapolate the 84 hour nam? It looks potent with that nye wave!

Dig baby dig! And go south of me. Somebody is getting some snow out if this one. I'll bet within 48 hours, we'll start to hear about it in the media.

[SnowGoose69]

I know its too early to be saying congrats to people... and this is the Nam.

 

But the 18z I've noticed that it really tries to get a stronger system going for the 12/31.

 

Maybe or maybe not the euro, gfs catches on... but can't deny this is a very interesting look to it.

 

 

The NAM tends to be very amped and northwest at 72-84 hours with systems, that said, this is a good sign though for many from the SE to NE looking for this system to be something of significance seeing the NAM look as good as it does at this range.

[FallsLake]

0z NAM simulated radar at 84 hours:

 

[FLweather]

The NAM tends to be very amped and northwest at 72-84 hours with systems, that said, this is a good sign though for many from the SE to NE looking for this system to be something of significance seeing the NAM look as good as it does at this range.

 

I agree. Really even looking at todays euro without getting into much detail I thought the same with that by looking at the h5 and h7rh fields. But does look promising. Guess alot of folks would say trends.

[Disco-lemonade]

These snow rate/boundary layer temp debates are useless because there is no right answer. There are enough scenarios, that meet those conditions, that can occur so that any point of view can potentially be correct. If it snows at 40 and you don't get any accumulation, that sucks. But it doesn't suck as bad as no snow at all. And if it snows at 35 and you get a slushy inch, well it's better than snow at 40 but not as good as snow at 33 and two inches, which is not as good as a foot of snow at 25. If you're going to compare everything to the latter, then you're not going to find a lot of satisfaction in winter in the southeast.

Well said.

[WeatherNC]

The 84 hour NAM looks promising, for sure.

 

This is likely a good time for us to start looking at the NAM, not as much with the 84 hr maps, more-so with the parcels in question coming ashore PAC NW, or down out of Canada days 1 & 3.  The NAM matches up favorably with the EC op, which per the underground maps, is not that far off from the 18z GFS, at least at H5.  Confidence slowly starting to build for energy at the base of the trough ivo lower MS River Valley, 12/30-12/31.  One thing I find suspect, the sw coming ashore in OR during the near term, the NAM kicks a good bit of that energy SSW off central CA, then well west of Baja 60-72 hours.

[J.C.]

I wouldn't believe any model supporting any type of snow under 3000 ft unless there is some type of miraculous cold air intrusion, which isn't on anyone's forecast right now.  

[FLweather]

Dig baby dig! And go south of me. Somebody is getting some snow out if this one. I'll bet within 48 hours, we'll start to hear about it in the media.

Dont wan't it to dig too much... the trough axis will turn and WAA will take over. But it does look favorable to track south of here(h5) into middle and lower GA... possibly up the coast.