franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble members on EWall not very enthused with Jan 2 event for the SE. A few are decent, a few are amped, north, and warmer, a few are a non-eventas usual at 192 hours out seems all options are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble members on EWall not very enthused with Jan 2 event for the SE. A few are decent, a few are amped, north, and warmer, a few are a non-event After a quick glance I only saw one that stuck out a decent for north GA P005 I think. . As you said the amped ones were way to warm for North for GA. Still a ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 as usual at 192 hours out seems all options are on the table. And as usual, the ol' wintertime stationary 192 hour threat keeps reeling us in. Guess I shouldn't complain though. It used to be 240. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 And as usual, the ol' wintertime stationary 192 hour threat keeps reeling us in. Guess I shouldn't complain though. It used to be 240. Haha! I've not had a chance to look at the ensembles yet but the operational clearly shows our event at 168... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I've not had a chance to look at the ensembles yet but the operational clearly shows our event at 168... I haven't either...I was just going off of what Franklin said. Hopefully, it's on the move...closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I posted in the Tennessee thread about the euro ensembles being faster and a better track than the op. At 180 the 0z ensembles had a weak surface low over New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We shouldn't forget the "possible" minor event for early next week. northeast NC currently showing close to 1 inch of snow. 12z GFS snow cover at 120 hours: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=12&fhour=120¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The gfse looked fine with the threat. Dt is doing a big write up! Kiss of death. Nah, there has been a vaugue, generic, moderate, meh storm signal for this time period for several days. I'm curious. The blocking showing up on the GFS has been a bit better the last few runs I think....I wonder if that will continue or not. At this point, even if it's moisture starved, I'd love to have a nice dusting/coating event that's all snow, NO MARGINAL TEMP issues. I'd take that and call January a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I personally would like to see today or tomorrow's Euro runs begin to hint at a system on 1/2...the fact that the GFS has shown it over the past 2-3 days and it now is showing up at Day 7, I think we may have something of note to track. GFS bias has always been for storms to disappear between days 5-7 only for it to reappear inside of Day 5 so therefor it wouldn't totally be a shock if the GFS tries to lose it come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 After a quick glance I only saw one that stuck out a decent for north GA P005 I think. . As you said the amped ones were way to warm for North for GA. Still a ways out though. As is usual, N GA's better chances for, say 1"+ of snow, are when there is a fairly weak Miller A in most cases, not something that gets "amped". The big snows from 3/1993 were one exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12Z Euro is dry for 1/2. The upper trough is tilted positively. 500 mb flow has no WSW component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12Z Euro is dry for 1/2. The upper trough is tilted positively. 500 mb flow has no WSW component. Your maps must update really fast. Euro does have light snow for northern NC and southern VA on 12/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Your maps must update really fast. Euro does have light snow for northern NC and southern VA on 12/31. Per my clown map, ~1" near NC/VA border 12/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Out to 168 and a piece of energy is out in Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 PV says see ya later I'm headed NE and taking the cold with me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Out to 168 and a piece of energy is out in Arizona. The euro is out to 192. It's not like the GFS unfortunately. Nothing to see here, yet? inb4 Brick says whatever model doesn't have snow usually ends up correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The op euro has really been bad lately . The ensemble's has looked so much better . The baised model is letting the gfs kick it's butt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We have seriously got to consider this Euro solution of the PV high tailing it NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The op euro has really been bad lately . The ensemble's has looked so much better . The baised model is letting the gfs kick it's butt right now. Assuming you can interpret these charts... http://www.daculaweather.com/model_verification.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We have seriously got to consider this Euro solution of the PV high tailing it NE. Definitely. It's certainly a possibility. It's been pretty adamant lately about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We have seriously got to consider this Euro solution of the PV high tailing it NE. I agree. The GFS has been adamant on it staying put, and the Euro seems bent on it scooting out. If anyone watched DT's video (this week in weather)..........he was showing the maps of the Euro vs. the GFS it certainly looked like there was little blocking there to keep the PV in eastern Canada on the GFS. Sure, the block over the top squashes it toward SE Canada, but it looked to me like it could scoot northeast pretty easily. Perhaps the ensembles here will lead the way? For anyone keeping track, has there been a trend on the ensembles for either the GFS or Euro over the last several days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Without a mechanism to hold the PV in place (blocking?), the solution from the Euro also seems reasonable. This event (if there is one) is still out in the 168 hour range where the correlation (see Queencitywx's post) is still relatively low, regardless of which model you choose. Focusing on what's closer and more probable, what does the chance of an additional 1.5" rain mean for flooding in North AL, GA, SC, NC, etc? I'm happy to get as much rain as possible during these low soil evaporation days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Every time he tries to do that, he ends up getting banned. DT never learns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You havent proven to anyone here that you understand one damn thing about weather except you wishcast for cold and snowy weather.Bingo. He said no SE ridge this winter and looked what happened in December. He was absent when nothing cold or wintry was showing up, now he is back because he thinks the pattern is going to turn due to a Quasi Biennial Oscillation Solar Max Connection in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro isn't a disaster in the LR. It's not like it shows a monster torch and all the cold air leaving NA. It's not really a snow pattern and there's no west-based -NAO, but it's not a torch and doesn't look like it would lead to one. There's a split flow in the Pacific and plenty of cold up in Canada. It's not a disaster, but there's a quite a bit of work to do to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ^^^ A foot of snow would be good for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro isn't a disaster in the LR. It's not like it shows a monster torch and all the cold air leaving NA. It's not really a snow pattern and there's no west-based -NAO, but it's not a torch and doesn't look like it would lead to one. There's a split flow in the Pacific and plenty of cold up in Canada. It's not a disaster, but there's a quite a bit of work to do to get snow.Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif Agreed. The 12Z Euro is actually at 1 to 2 F below normal for the 6-10 day period per 850's. Also, the 12Z GFS is 2-4 F below normal for the same period. So, all pretty good if one wants a decent cold period, especially with it being during a portion of the time with the coldest normal. I'm hoping that the GFS is closer to reality around 1/2 as I feel there's a nontrivial chance for at least a light accumulation of snow in much of the SE then per several GFS/GEFS runs though the 12Z GFS has very little snow for 1/2 unlike the 6Z and 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 maybe u can learn how not too jump on every run, good or bad . Take the DT crap to banter please, keep it out of this thread. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro isn't a disaster in the LR. It's not like it shows a monster torch and all the cold air leaving NA. It's not really a snow pattern and there's no west-based -NAO, but it's not a torch and doesn't look like it would lead to one. There's a split flow in the Pacific and plenty of cold up in Canada. It's not a disaster, but there's a quite a bit of work to do to get snow.Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif I love me a split flow!! My winter kink desires twosomes and threesomes, and I'll take a split flow in winter over all else, and let the cold worry about it's self. Strangely enough winter seems to generate cold over and over, so it's the potential for repeat rains you want to see. At least I do. T T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro ENS is a lot colder than the OP run at day 8-10. It does dampen the ridge out a little but nearly as much as the OP run. The Euro control run has weak low off NC that does strengthen and move up the coast. I don't have precip out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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