Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[GaWx]

Here's that little event at hour 183(not little for Atlanta):

Agreed, verbatim per that Twisterdata clown map that wouldn't be little at all for the Atlanta area since it shows 1.5-2" of snow (though clown maps often overdo). That, alone, would be higher than the median total winter snow, which is ~1", and just under the 2" mean. I'd take that in a heartbeat even if that's to be the entire winter's snowfall in Atlanta.

[MichaelJ]

The GEM ensembles ( and to a lesser extent the GFS) show some extreme cold air making forays into the SE but they have little staying power due to the progressive nature of the pattern lacking a stong -NAO. The chances are good we will eventually get a -NAO due to the positioning of the trough east of Hawaii added to the block showing some signs of coming over the top in Greenland (or just west) and hooking up with the high heights block already forming just off the West coast in the Pacific. This could cause a "funneling" of cold air down into the US straight from Siberia but the troubling question will be not be just if this happens, but when. Last year the NAO went strongly negative in March/April which does us no good in the SE outside the mountains for snow, due to the warming temperature averages that start climbing rapidly in late Feb. The lack of a la Nina or El Nino added to the solar max tends to favor a blocking pattern with a stong negative NAO in the mid to late winter period of Jan 15-early March, which is a prime time for any potential snow threats here climotologically speaking. The fluctuating nature of the models, especially the op of the Euro/GFS, will likely continue until they finally figure out the nature of the pattern change we seem to be approaching and the timing of it. It is a good sign that they are having so much trouble run to run as it does indicate something substantial is trying to happen and they just do not have a good handle on major pattern changes early in the process historically

[NCCatawba]

So the EURO doesn't show it....it is going against the pattern of weekend precip. The entire month of December has featured precip on the weekend. It hard for me to bet against the GFS at this point.

 

This isn't too bad for NC. 8 days to watch for some north trends. It may take some of us out but eventually favor the NC/VA corridor. Something to monitor.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

So the EURO doesn't show it....it is going against the pattern of weekend precip. The entire month of December has featured precip on the weekend. It hard for me to bet against the GFS at this point.

 

This isn't too bad for NC. 8 days to watch for some north trends. It may take some of us out but eventually favor the NC/VA corridor. Something to monitor.

 

We liked it better when you were "5 posted". At least then you stayed out of the discussion thread and wasted your posts on stupid videos..... As far as the IMBY post above. Nobody wants to hear about how Wilkesboro will get snow and everyone else will get shafted.

[GaWx]

Folks,

The 0Z GFS dropped this near Miller A scenario for 1/2-3. However, the 0Z GEFS is actually showing it even more than the 18Z GEFS for mainly 1/2. Therefore, I say game very much on for some chance for a supressed Miller A ~1/2-3 that could give some of the SE an accumulating snow. Has anyone seen the individual members of the 0Z GEFS from 168 to 192 hours?

Well, how about them apples! The 6Z GFS brought the 18Z GFS snow back and then some for much of the northern half of GA, N SC, and SE NC per Twisterdata clown maps (they may be overdone, of course, since cold is more marginal than the 18Z GFS had). Per Twisterdata, it brings as much as 1.5-2" to Atlanta and Athens, 1-1.5" for an area between Columbia and Greenville, SC, as well as near Fayetteville, NC, and 2-3" for parts of coastal NC. Other cities like Columbus, Macon, and Augusta get snow.

This is due to a combo of a strong (1040 mb+) Arctic high over MN in combo with a weak Miller A low in the classic position moving E in the N GOM along with moist WSW 500 mb flow. This definitely has my attention! If I count the 0Z GEFS, this makes three GFS runs in a row suggesting a threat for nontrivial snow for a good part of the SE US on 1/2 (Thursday).

[nchighcountrywx]

From Twitter:

@LarryCosgrove: Storm between Hawaii and Baja California could be major ice and snow producer January 3-6 Texas, Dixie, East Coast

http://t.co/GEM3kyPYIE

[NCCatawba]

We liked it better when you were "5 posted". At least then you stayed out of the discussion thread and wasted your posts on stupid videos..... As far as the IMBY post above. Nobody wants to hear about how Wilkesboro will get snow and everyone else will get shafted.

 

I wasn't trying to be rude...I just see it happen a lot a week out is hard for any place to hold on to accumulating snow. More often than not NC/VA comes into play. Not just the in my backyard foothills thing...I was trying to boost some people's hope up in the Carolinas.

[WeatherNC]

So the EURO doesn't show it....it is going against the pattern of weekend precip. The entire month of December has featured precip on the weekend. It hard for me to bet against the GFS at this point.

 

This isn't too bad for NC. 8 days to watch for some north trends. It may take some of us out but eventually favor the NC/VA corridor. Something to monitor.

 

Thanks for the update boss...  After the  southern stream distubance this "weekend," there is potential for a token event on the 31st, you can see the energy in question on the 12z GFS around 90hrs over the MS River Valley, pos tilt trough axis, with a second second short wave hanging back over the western Plains.  Something to watch as we are inside 5 days.  Next up is a system around 1/3, varying degrees of ens support for potential during this time.  If we start  to see evidence of a storm cutting through the lakes in the 8-14 day period, all bets are off, and the first half of January could be pretty ugly for us in the SE - southern MA.

[NEGa]

We're really not 10 days away from potential wintery weather. After the storm this weekend there should be sufficient cold around to produce a winter storm. The real problem is making sure the storm takes the path that will leave us on the cold side; and of course if it occurs. As other have discussed, the positive look of the NAO is not going to make this easy. But it is possible. Below is the 6z GFS at hour 114. Doesn't show anything major but it does show potential. For us in the SE that's usually all we can hope for when looking at the LR.

Good way to say it . Realistically anything over 1-2" is good for n ga. The biggies are just not that common for the most part. If people are expecting a set up like 09 with two back to back blockbusters they will be disappointed big time. There is at least a potential for some winter wx within the dreaded 10 day time frame. It has gotten cold again which is half the battle. Now we just need some moisture or a low to move thru at the right time and we could be seeing some flakes flying

I agree with this. Until we can get a true west based nao we should look for small disturbances moving from west to east. We are talking 2-4 3-6 type events any big storm will most likely head to the lakes.

Lol I guess I should try to start finishing my morning catching up before posting. Thats what I am hoping for at this point.

[burgertime]

12z GFS  says congrats eastern NC with some light snow next week. 

[NEGa]

Well, how about them apples! The 6Z GFS brought the 18Z GFS snow back and then some for much of the northern half of GA, N SC, and SE NC per Twisterdata clown maps (they may be overdone, of course, since cold is more marginal than the 18Z GFS had). Per Twisterdata, it brings as much as 1.5-2" to Atlanta and Athens, 1-1.5" for an area between Columbia and Greenville, SC, as well as near Fayetteville, NC, and 2-3" for parts of coastal NC. Other cities like Columbus, Macon, and Augusta get snow.

This is due to a combo of a strong (1040 mb+) Arctic high over MN in combo with a weak Miller A low in the classic position moving E in the N GOM along with moist WSW 500 mb flow. This definitely has my attention! If I count the 0Z GEFS, this makes three GFS runs in a row suggesting a threat for nontrivial snow for a good part of the SE US on 1/2 (Thursday).

If I am not mistaken, I think a couple of runs/panels here and there since mondayish have been at least giving some possibility of something frozen around thur the 2nd. Been keeping an eye on it as well for sme reason lol. Maybe a lot of from n ga thru the upstate and nc will have something interesting falling from the skies in about a week.

Editing to add: btw I approve of your phrase "nontrivial" lol. Seems like quite a few are of the mindset if it's not a monster who cares. For n ga anyway, 1-2" for a widespread area is a pretty good snowfall (no snickering from the nc mtns haha) And is certainly not a trivial snowfall. I would be happy with 1.5"

[Jon]

Morning Mr. Tamland... Using words like "will," "definitely" and "going to" when discussing weather, especially for the extended period is like fools gold.

0z op EC was pretty ugly, PV, or at least a piece of it exits stage right to the North Atlantic. This is something to keep an eye on in the absence of true North Atlantic blocking. In addition, it would appear the mean EC trough axis sets up a little farther north and east days 6-10. The ens mean is not as bleak, but still some hints that the PV is in transition, and no real incursion of artic air into the SE through day 10.

That's been the story for about 3 runs now. I'm getting concerned for sure.

I'm not sure I'm as concerned. The mean doesn't look all that bad and at 240, I'll take it. Even though the cold isn't extreme it's still a good look for a mean 240hrs out and on. We'll see what happens but unless I see the blocking completely disappear on the mean and the PV head to Iceland and stay, I don't care what the OP says too  much.

 

To me it looks like the mean EC trough axis is west of the Op? Ridge is also taller/stronger out west on mean than Op.

 

[burgertime]

GFS looks close to something big for just after New Years. It phases three pieces of energy with light snow over WNC and a very weak LP in the gulf. Gotta keep watching those pieces of energy. Anytime there is a phasing and timing on hand it will change every day. 

[NCCatawba]

GFS goes north with the accumulations. Snow for much of NC instead of GA this run next weekend. Light accumulations.

[mackerel_sky]

Wouldn't a strong phase possibly result in a cutter? Without a -NAO

[burgertime]

Wouldn't a strong phase possibly result in a cutter? Without a -NAO

 

The three pieces are all pretty weak. It just heads east. It greatly depends on when it phases. You want the phase to happen sooner and further west than usually happens. When it phases to far east that is when it pulls up to the OV. 

[GaWx]

Wouldn't a strong phase possibly result in a cutter? Without a -NAO

 

 From a N GA perspective, I wouldn't want a phase at all. Phase more often than not means warmer, more north track of the low. A weak Miller A with ample cold to the north would be the best scenario in most cases for N GA. I would imagine the same would be the case for upstate SC. However, we're not in NC.

[SnowNiner]

GFS looks close to something big for just after New Years. It phases three pieces of energy with light snow over WNC and a very weak LP in the gulf. Gotta keep watching those pieces of energy. Anytime there is a phasing and timing on hand it will change every day. 

 

Yeah, check please!

 

Decent Greenland blocking, keeping a decent position of the PV acting as a 50/50 low correct? To my untrained eye, the 12Z looks pretty good for blocking and a storm signal for right after the new year.

 

[tnweathernut]

Gulf systems have been more robust than modeled.  Just something to keep in mind.  I am bullish on something around this time frame (Jan 2nd).  There is a lot of energy floating around that the models will begin to sort out in the coming 3-4 days.

[WXinCanton]

The three pieces are all pretty weak. It just heads east. It greatly depends on when it phases. You want the phase to happen sooner and further west than usually happens. When it phases to far east that is when it pulls up to the OV. 

  

 

I always thought later the phase further east helped keep systems more suppressed and less cutting through OV.  Phasing sooner or further west helps pull them north sooner and helps them cut north.   Either way, next weekend time frame has piqued my interest 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 From a N GA perspective, I wouldn't want a phase at all. Phase more often than not means warmer, more north track of the low. A weak Miller A with ample cold to the north would be the best scenario in most cases for N GA. I would imagine the same would be the case for upstate SC. However, we're not in NC.

Would that apply to North Alabama as well ?

[GaWx]

Would that apply to North Alabama as well ?

 

 Is N AL is still covered in this forum?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 Is N AL is still covered in this forum?

Lol, well i hope so since i'm only 15 miles from Alabama. 

[Jon]

By the way DT had some good points in his video yesterday I just noticed, it's kinda what I was honing in on in my previous post to not read too far into Euro OP runs. http://youtu.be/m5Tx9OCtb7E?t=10m17s He doesn't buy the PV leaving and turning into a mild pattern, nor do I. Ensembles don't support it.

[griteater]

For Jan 2, the GFS looks OK, but the wave needs to sharpen to induce more precip.  Canadian is even more strung out.  UKMet looks decent out to hr144.  Limited GFS Ensemble member support for the solution we want up to this point, but 12z members not out yet.

[MADDOGG]

 

I wasn't trying to be rude...I just see it happen a lot a week out is hard for any place to hold on to accumulating snow. More often than not NC/VA comes into play. Not just the in my backyard foothills thing...I was trying to boost some people's hope up in the Carolinas.

 

Don't worry about it, this board is becoming a evermore of a hate site day by day. Either agree with what a few say or get shunned.

[Isopycnic]

   

Don't worry about it, this board is becoming a evermore of a hate site day by day. Either agree with what a few say or get shunned.

The bigger issue is the civil discourse of this SE forum never reaches above the 3 grade reading level.

[packbacker]

By the way DT had some good points in his video yesterday I just noticed, it's kinda what I was honing in on in my previous post to not read too far into Euro OP runs.

He doesn't buy the PV leaving and turning into a mild pattern, nor do I. Ensembles don't support it.

He tweeted that the 1/3 potential event could be "significant" EC threat, curious to see what he says.

[griteater]

12z GFS Ensemble members on EWall not very enthused with Jan 2 event for the SE.  A few are decent, a few are amped, north, and warmer, a few are a non-event

[packbacker]

12z GFS Ensemble members on EWall not very enthused with Jan 2 event for the SE.  A few are decent, a few are amped, north, and warmer, a few are a non-event

Definitely very uninspiring but the only good thing is they were varied.