Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[bobbitt]

the one problem with the euro this winter it tries too warm up too fast from sw lows this model is sw baised, an the euro ensembles has told a diffrent story so far. an for now u really can't trust the op run past 168 . for this reason u hear people talk about how the gfs has whipped the euro so far this winter .

[jburns]

joe d is one of the great metts! there are many other metts i listen too  meation this also , but joe d from weather bell has been talking about this forever . i have few mett friends on face book, i talk too about  the connection! but if u want too see examples, go too weather bell joe d been showing examples for a long time. . The epo went postive for a little bitt, but the pattern stayed cold, becasue the wpo was still holding on, kicking cold out of alaska! .Joe d said quote,

'the dec pattern want be the main pattern for  the winter. the jan feb qbo solar max connection should take hold . I said this before winter started before he even started the examples , like i said i have good mett friends. 

Considering the fact I am a former teacher, I am pretty lenient as far as online spelling and grammar are concerned. However, the problem here is that your spelling and grammar are so poor, it severely affects our ability to understand what you are trying to say. This is a problem, and if you intend to be taken seriously here, you need to do something about it.  I am already to the point where I do not read your posts if they are longer than a sentence or two. It's just to much trouble to keep getting out my secret decoder ring. The only reason I read this one was Shawn's comment right after you posted made me curious. Please make an effort to improve your posts.

[Shawn]

He's talking about Joe D'aleo who has been calling for a SSW event due to solar factors. 

 

 

Ah yes, I dont mind that guy at all.  I apologize.  I'm used to most the talk centered about Bastardi! <3

 

I dont like the 00z Euro.  Ew.

[Shawn]

Looks like the morning "ice" is a no go, and if some possibly see any evap cooling to cause it; it'll be extremely light.

[FallsLake]

Winter weather advisory just issued from RAH. Looking at radar the precip looks to be showery in nature and as RAH stated this will give a sporadic amount to people in the advisory zone.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
522 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013

...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS...

.AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN A GLAZING OF ICE AND DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

NCZ007>011-023>028-038>043-073>076-261500-
/O.COR.KRAH.WW.Y.0008.131226T1022Z-131226T1500Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...BURLINGTON...
GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...
ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...
TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD
522 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
EST THIS MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY FROM U.S.
  ROUTE 64 NORTHWARD.

* TIMING...PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
  OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
  ABOVE FREEZING BY 1000 AM.

* MAIN IMPACTS...THE FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
  FREEZING RAIN MAY BE LOCALIZED AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE.
  DRIVERS MAY BE SURPRISED BY RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
  LIMITED TO A SMALL GLAZE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
  DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR PATCHES OF ICE AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SLOW DOWN AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
 

[FallsLake]

Here's the map(paste didn't work):

 

http://www.weather.gov/rah/

[WXinCanton]

6z GFS really brings the rain this weekend to North GA.  Still has the little event around hour 180.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS really brings the rain this weekend to North GA.  Still has the little event around hour 180.

Here's that little event at hour 183(not little for Atlanta):

 

[FallsLake]

At hour 192(from 6z GFS):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=06&fhour=192&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[bobbitt]

Anyone saying the 0 euro looks bad? Weel the ensembles again tells a different story. Enjoy this big January coming! I hear some roads are icy this morning.

[Tacoma]

the cold looks to be in place I hope the moisture comes a little more north of where its showing now.  

[burgertime]

the cold looks to be in place I hope the moisture comes a little more north of where its showing now.  

 

If you look at the 5h maps that energy dives into the Rockies and then stays south heading east. It doesn't turn negative in time to really do us more favors. If it can hold together better and start tilting negative or at least less positive it helps pretty much everyone. This could be a good one to watch. I do worry that the Euro is not seeing it but it is 10 days away so it might disappear entirely or turn into something totally different. 

[Southern Track]

Wouldn't normally mention the Canadian, but it lead the way for this weekends system, and it's showing a close call for New Year's Eve for the Carolinas.

[burgertime]

Wouldn't normally mention the Canadian, but it lead the way for this weekends system, and it's showing a close call for New Year's Eve for the Carolinas.

 

That's another one where we need the energy to dig a little more and juice up. We should pay very close attention to that one over the next few days. It wouldn't take much to give someone a good surprise. On the 6z run it kind of weakly phases with that northern energy which kind of screws things up by not allowing it to get amped up. Hopefully we can get a new year's surprise!

[buckeyefan1]

Considering the fact I am a former teacher, I am pretty lenient as far as online spelling and grammar are concerned. However, the problem here is that your spelling and grammar are so poor, it severely affects our ability to understand what you are trying to say. This is a problem, and if you intend to be taken seriously here, you need to do something about it.  I am already to the point where I do not read your posts if they are longer than a sentence or two. It's just to much trouble to keep getting out my secret decoder ring. The only reason I read this one was Shawn's comment right after you posted made me curious. Please make an effort to improve your posts.

This. 

 

Anyone saying the 0 euro looks bad? Weel the ensembles again tells a different story. Enjoy this big January coming! I hear some roads are icy this morning.

For the love of all that is right....read more and post less 

[FLweather]

That's another one where we need the energy to dig a little more and juice up. We should pay very close attention to that one over the next few days. It wouldn't take much to give someone a good surprise. On the 6z run it kind of weakly phases with that northern energy which kind of screws things up by not allowing it to get amped up. Hopefully we can get a new year's surprise!

 

Agree. Especially looking at the 12z run from yesterday. Not that it really matters atm but the LP needs to be south and on the north side of the Lp to benefit from snow chances.  But how ever slight the odds are that below verifys that would be rain from GA to atleast MD,PA.

[Brick Tamland]

This freezing rain seemed to come up out of nowhere late last night.

And I guess we have something to look at for the first of the year, but not really confident when folks start using words like could and if and maybe if this and that happens.

[WeatherNC]

This freezing rain seemed to come up out of nowhere late last night.

And I guess we have something to look at for the first of the year, but not really confident when folks start using words like could and if and maybe if this and that happens.

Morning Mr. Tamland... Using words like "will," "definitely" and "going to" when discussing weather, especially for the extended period is like fools gold.

0z op EC was pretty ugly, PV, or at least a piece of it exits stage right to the North Atlantic. This is something to keep an eye on in the absence of true North Atlantic blocking. In addition, it would appear the mean EC trough axis sets up a little farther north and east days 6-10. The ens mean is not as bleak, but still some hints that the PV is in transition, and no real incursion of artic air into the SE through day 10.

[BullCityWx]

Morning Mr. Tamland... Using words like "will," "definitely" and "going to" when discussing weather, especially for the extended period is like fools gold.

0z op EC was pretty ugly, PV, or at least a piece of it exits stage right to the North Atlantic. This is something to keep an eye on in the absence of true North Atlantic blocking. In addition, it would appear the mean EC trough axis sets up a little farther north and east days 6-10. The ens mean is not as bleak, but still some hints that the PV is in transition, and no real incursion of artic air into the SE through day 10.

 

That's been the story for about 3 runs now. I'm getting concerned for sure.

[SnowNiner]

Well, getting back into the swing of things, things still don't look great IMO.  Doesn't look like we're going to torch but the good pattern doesn't look like it's going to take hold yet.  My all important index seems to want to stay above water.  Without a -NAO, I just have no confidence in getting a storm to stay south of the Carolinas or for it to stay cold enough for winter precipitation.  

 

We were inundated last year with northern stream energy that we had to hope and wish that the energy would dig south; hanging our hats on every run.  Except it always was just not quite south and west enough to get most of us winter precip.  I'm not playing that game this year.  That game is no fun AT ALL. 

 

It's still early so I'm good.  January or February is fine, I'm flexible.  But I need some blocking.  I've heard some camps say that feb we'll see some flux capacitor activity that will bring blocking.  I'm good with waiting. 

 

[FallsLake]

That's been the story for about 3 runs now. I'm getting concerned for sure.

Indices this morning do show the NAO averaging slightly positive. So it looks like there will not be much if any north Atlantic blocking. But the PNA looks to average positive and the AO continues to show a decidedly negative look. Not sure what will/can get with this depiction.

[Tacoma]

trouble is we always seem to be saying ten days from now, like last year we will soon run out of 10 days and it will be April. I know winter just started but this is the way it worked out last year, I guess after the last 2 years I'm a little frustrated.

[Isopycnic]

This freezing rain seemed to come up out of nowhere late last night.

And I guess we have something to look at for the first of the year, but not really confident when folks start using words like could and if and maybe if this and that happens.

This minor "came out of nowhere" event was being discussed all day long yesterday by NWS Raleigh while you weren't paying attention.

[FallsLake]

trouble is we always seem to be saying ten days from now, like last year we will soon run out of 10 days and it will be April. I know winter just started but this is the way it worked out last year, I guess after the last 2 years I'm a little frustrated.

We're really not 10 days away from potential wintery weather. After the storm this weekend there should be sufficient cold around to produce a winter storm. The real problem is making sure the storm takes the path that will leave us on the cold side; and of course if it occurs. As other have discussed, the positive look of the NAO is not going to make this easy. But it is possible. Below is the 6z GFS at hour 114. Doesn't show anything major but it does show potential. For us in the SE that's usually all we can hope for when looking at the LR.

 

   

[Isopycnic]

This minor "came out of nowhere" event was being discussed all day long yesterday by NWS Raleigh while you weren't paying attention.

Here's the first discussion...

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

237 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER

LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE

STRENGTHENS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS

MOVING OVERHEAD...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...AND LOW

SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST MAYBE A

HIGH CLOUD OR TWO TO THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALREADY

EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO SINGLE

FIGURES IN SOME LOCATIONS...CLOSER TO AND EVEN A LITTLE BELOW THE

LOWER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. MANY SINGLE FIGURE SURFACE DEW POINTS...EVEN

SOME NEGATIVE VALUES...MAY OCCUR TODAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A

FEW MORNING GUSTS...MAINLY TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY THIS MORNING...IN

THE TEENS KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MIXING BEFORE THE SURFACE GRADIENT

SLACKENS FURTHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES MORE TO THE EAST...

PLACING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

BY AFTERNOON. THUS...WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY

LIGHT DURING THE DRIEST TIME OF DAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES IN

COMBINATION WITH AMPLE SUN AND A DRY AIR MASS SUPPORT HIGH

TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45...NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS

DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE MOIST...AS A

VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY IS

FORECAST TO DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL RUNS OF ABOUT 24

HOURS AGO...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT

AND THURSDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST

OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING CLOSE

TO THE AREA...MAINLY TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF CENTRAL NORTH

CAROLINA AND THE COAST. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130KT 300MB

JET HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND THE GFS

ACTUALLY FORECASTS A SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW TO 35KT LATE TONIGHT.

DECENT 700MB LIFT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS LATE TONIGHT

INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ESPECIALLY

SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN 0.75 INCH AND AN INCH...ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE

END OF DECEMBER.

THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MOIST COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND

ITS MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIKELY POPS FOR KFAY AND KCTZ...WITH

CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT. THE GFS...WHILE

CERTAINLY DRIER...IS MORE IN THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY TOWARD KFAY

AND KCTZ...CORRESPONDINGLY LESSER NORTH OF THERE. WILL LEAN TOWARD

THE GFS AS ITS ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST ON THE 300K SURFACE VERY

LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING SEEMS TO BE MORE COINCIDENT WITH

ITS TIMING OF MOISTURE INCREASE AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM...IN WHICH ITS

ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES NOT SEEM TO PHASE WELL WITH ITS MOISTURE

INCREASE.

WRF GUIDANCE VARIES...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS TOWARD JUSTIFYING

SMALL CHANCES...AND MAINLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. THAT TIMING IS

IMPORTANT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY AND WARMING THICKNESSES AND THE

ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALOFT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...PARTIAL THICKNESSES

AND WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE DEPTH OF THE

ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ON BUFR SOUNDINGS TOWARD KFAY...SUPPORT ALL

LIQUID IF ANYTHING OCCURS AT ALL. IN A DRY AIR MASS AND A MOSTLY

CLEAR SKY TO START THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THEN

BECOME STEADY...AND PROBABLY RISE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS

HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AND THICKEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS 23 TO 26 ALONG AND

NORTH OF U.S. 64 AND MAINLY 25 TO 30 SOUTH OF THERE. HIGHS THURSDAY

WILL FEATURE A TREND WARMER SOUTHWEST...AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER

50S...AND COOLEST TOWARD KRWI...AROUND 47...BASED ON THE EXPECTED

CLOUD COVER PATTERN FOR THE DAY. CLEARING OCCURS LATE THURSDAY AND

INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...GIVEN

THICKNESSES NOT QUITE AS LOW THEN AS SHOULD BE OCCURRING PRESENTLY.

[Tacoma]

We're really not 10 days away from potential wintery weather. After the storm this weekend there should be sufficient cold around to produce a winter storm. The real problem is making sure the storm takes the path that will leave us on the cold side; and of course if it occurs. As other have discussed, the positive look of the NAO is not going to make this easy. But it is possible. Below is the 6z GFS at hour 114. Doesn't show anything major but it does show potential. For us in the SE that's usually all we can hope for when looking at the LR.

 

I know, but I do live in the Mtns. where the chances are normally pretty good for snow when others get rain or nothing.

[FallsLake]

I know, but I do live in the Mtns. where the chances are normally pretty good for snow when others get rain or nothing.

I think until we get the NAO negative we're going to be looking/hoping for smaller events. Bigger storms may tend to cut up towards the lakes where the smaller clipper type systems will be able to stay south. Not sure if others agree but just my thinking. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Two things that are actually good right now and I've not read much on it.The first is the gulf moisture that's showing now. Also we seem to be getting moiture and an abundance of it too.  Just my 2 cents.

[franklin NCwx]

I think until we get the NAO negative we're going to be looking/hoping for smaller events. Bigger storms may tend to cut up towards the lakes where the smaller clipper type systems will be able to stay south. Not sure if others agree but just my thinking.

I agree with this. Until we can get a true west based nao we should look for small disturbances moving from west to east. We are talking 2-4 3-6 type events any big storm will most likely head to the lakes.

[POWERSTROKE]

I agree with this. Until we can get a true west based nao we should look for small disturbances moving from west to east. We are talking 2-4 3-6 type events any big storm will most likely head to the lakes.

I will take small storms.