Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[GaWx]

That's the equivalent of posting a 240hr frame of GFS/Euro as evidence of a block. Strat warming has been modeled to occur, whether or not it has begun or will occur as depicted in the above GFS 240hr is still up in the air.

 

 Not only that, but it looks to me like there's still a very cold strat. over and near the north pole. which counteracts that warm area near the Aleutians. So, I don't know that this 240 hour map is even showing a warm anomaly overall over the area from 60N to 90N!

[DaculaWeather]

One thing you'll start to see when there is a SSW, is that the EP flux will have a poleward movement, and currently it's southbound. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php

 

Watch the 10hPa (or even 30 hPa) loop... nothing special right now.http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_10hpa_loop.php There isn't even a hint of a split.

 

The Euro temp charts don't show anything

 

And as Larry mentioned, the temp anomalies are on the cool side right now, versus what you see last January.

 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

If you have to go out to 240 to push your agenda..........that's a big stretch.

Without checking myself, I figured he was seeing signs of an SSW and was using the 240 hour prog to show what current signs would lead to down the road.

He is also using an AP geomagnetic index to forecast upcoming blocking........I have never even heard of this before. He pulls and promotes some pretty wired stuff at times.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DMADKAT]

Like last week when I was supposed to be 40 and it was 29 on a one day NWS local forecast?

 

Yes - modeling has gotten better since 1989 (but my 2 year ago example is relatively current) - but it is still modeling nonetheless, and sometimes computer input does not equate with what actually happens.

 

Yes - models are important, and I respect them, but they are not a god. (Sandy?)

Well Said !   Still much more science to be discovered in this great field. This sunspot minimum is just one angle that holds potential discoveries. Keep open mind.

[WidreMann]

Remember that the busts are more likely to be in the direction of no snow than in the direction of snow. That a model doesn't show a big snowstorm is not, in fact, evidence that there will be a snowstorm.

[Shawn]

Remember that the busts are more likely to be in the direction of no snow than in the direction of snow. That a model doesn't show a big snowstorm is not, in fact, evidence that there will be a snowstorm.

 

Perfect reason of how Winter weather works out for us in the South East.  Much higher chance of a bust for a bigger snow storm much to our North.

[WidreMann]

Perfect reason of how Winter weather works out for us in the South East.  Much higher chance of a bust for a bigger snow storm much to our North.

It's not really busts, though. Climatologically speaking, it just doesn't snow that frequently down here. So on any given day, we have a fairly low chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Any forecast for wintry weather always has to go against that.

[Shawn]

It's not really busts, though. Climatologically speaking, it just doesn't snow that frequently down here. So on any given day, we have a fairly low chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Any forecast for wintry weather always has to go against that.

 

Exactly, it's especially harder down here in the Midlands of SC.  Currently, KCAE is using the "ptype concern" thing in their AFD for the morning.. but even the HRRR shows no precip really making a statement here, and although dew points may be a bit low; I give it a 10% chance of being ice in KCAE proper even if the precip gets in here.  Either way, the effects are extremely minimal.

[bobbitt]

It's not really busts, though. Climatologically speaking, it just doesn't snow that frequently down here. So on any given day, we have a fairly low chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Any forecast for wintry weather always has to go against that.

u keep saying there no pattern change coming ? when u wrong what will be your excuse?

[WidreMann]

u keep saying there no pattern change coming ? when u wrong what will be your excuse?

There will be a pattern change at some point. Even the worst winters have cold spots. That doesn't mean what the models showed a few days ago is likely to happen. Also, I have the excuse of being able to write proper English.

[pcbjr]

Also, I have the excuse of being able to write proper English.

 

So should all of us, by the way.

[Jon]

It's not really busts, though. Climatologically speaking, it just doesn't snow that frequently down here. So on any given day, we have a fairly low chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Any forecast for wintry weather always has to go against that.

We know your general stance on things is the safe bet and while I agree with the above statement, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. It's the same logic when you root for an underdog, you hang on the chance of an upset and when it happens and it's your team (the SE) it's sweet, sweet victory.

[Shawn]

There will be a pattern change at some point. Even the worst winters have cold spots. That doesn't mean what the models showed a few days ago is likely to happen. Also, I have the excuse of being able to write proper English.

 

The 06 GFS (i think) run last night showed 8F in KCAE.  I just can't see it getting that cold.  They've backed off majorly since those runs and make more sense now.  The cold was down right fridgid and probably over done as we have seen them warm up.  18F would make much more sense, and even that is a bit too cold for us usually.

[NCCatawba]

I don't like the pattern we are about to find ourselves in. We have had good enough cold for winter weather thus far and plenty of moisture. WNC dodged a few ice storms already by a degree. Now it looks like dry cold for Jan. CPC has the entire Gulf coast from Texas to Florida with a +40% chance of below normal precip for the month of January. But......I have seen a lot of cases where the arctic air begins to leave we can sometimes squeeze in a winter weather event before its gone and out near the tail end of things.

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013

BEFORE THE ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT, ONE MORE JUICY WAVE SHOULD SPREAD
RAIN THROUGH THE GULF STATES, SOUTHEAST, AND COASTAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 6 AND 7, THE WEST
SHOULD SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS WHILE CONTINENTAL AIR FLOODS THE
EAST--SHUTTING DOWN OCEAN-FUELED PRECIPITATION FOR A WHILE.


CISCO

[Tacoma]

I keep hearing about a change coming and I believe the change will come, Robert whom I respect greatly is saying a pattern change is coming and I do think he's right from everything I've read. Robert is my favorite on the weather.

[bobbitt]

There will be a pattern change at some point. Even the worst winters have cold spots. That doesn't mean what the models showed a few days ago is likely to happen. Also, I have the excuse of being able to write proper English.

AT  some point ? please u need too learn how too long range forcast don't worrie about my english .

[WidreMann]

AT  some point ? please u need too learn how too long range forcast don't worrie about my english .

You certainly don't.

[NCCatawba]

Eventually we are going to have to pay up for our wet year. Just like how we paid up for our snowy season a few years back. Let's hope this cycle does not start in the heart of winter going into Spring. That would suck for the new year and we would probably end up with a drought in the summer. Which is predicted by the way for most here save central and western NC...based on the CPC.

[bobbitt]

You certainly don't.

oh really . a blind man can see  the pv will be stuck an split , so we supose too think oh yea all the models are wrong includeing ensembles an u are right ?   it's clear u not seeing the correct data the ensembles all point too one in jan i guess they wrong. 

[Cold Rain]

A case can be made that the upcoming pattern is better for snow than the one we've been in. But it's not really a great winter storm pattern for us yet. Perfect timing can occur, and we can get a good storm, but it's not a perfect pattern. Still, there are a few windows over the next couple of weeks worth watching, and that's about all you can say at this point. And that's not really saying all that much.

[Cold Rain]

Eventually we are going to have to pay up for our wet year. Just like how we paid up for our snowy season a few years back. Let's hope this cycle does not start in the heart of winter going into Spring. That would suck for the new year and we would probably end up with a drought in the summer. Which is predicted by the way for most here save central and western NC...based on the CPC.

You don't pay for snow with no snow. The debt for rain is not no rain. That's silly.

[bobbitt]

A case can be made that the upcoming pattern is better for snow than the one we've been in. But it's not really a great winter storm pattern for us yet. Perfect timing can occur, and we can get a good storm, but it's not a perfect pattern. Still, there are a few windows over the next couple of weeks worth watching, and that's about all you can say at this point. And that's not really saying all that much.

i agree the pattern will change that's the point an u can't get snow without cold ,some times things just happen .

[WidreMann]

You don't pay for snow with no snow. The debt for rain is not no rain. That's silly.

There is no debt anyway. Fat years and lean years happen all the time, and long-term trends skew the averages meaning that even in the long-haul, we may never get "repaid".

[packbacker]

A case can be made that the upcoming pattern is better for snow than the one we've been in. But it's not really a great winter storm pattern for us yet. Perfect timing can occur, and we can get a good storm, but it's not a perfect pattern. Still, there are a few windows over the next couple of weeks worth watching, and that's about all you can say at this point. And that's not really saying all that much.

 

Agreed, although it's not a great pattern for a 6"+ event I think we can get a 1-2" type of event, we have seen the models the past few days (Euro/GFS) give something close to that, I just want something that will whiten the ground, I haven't seen that here at my house since 3 years ago tonight.

[Shawn]

i agree the pattern will change that's the point an u can't get snow without cold ,some times things just happen .

 

Nope, you just get suppression a lot of the time.

[NCSNOW]

Eventually we are going to have to pay up for our wet year. Just like how we paid up for our snowy season a few years back. Let's hope this cycle does not start in the heart of winter going into Spring. That would suck for the new year and we would probably end up with a drought in the summer. Which is predicted by the way for most here save central and western NC...based on the CPC.

Eventually we are going to pay for the much below annual snowfall the past 2 seasons. This logic works both ways.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It's not really busts, though. Climatologically speaking, it just doesn't snow that frequently down here. So on any given day, we have a fairly low chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Any forecast for wintry weather always has to go against that.

Even though WidreMann is wet blanket at times, I can see his point. If you were a betting man, and you bet against winter weather in the Raleigh area, you would win the majority of times. It takes a perfect pattern to deliver the goods out that way. That's not to say you can't have flukes in a less-desirable pattern, but the major winter storms are few and far between.

[chapelhillwx]

Eventually we are going to have to pay up for our wet year. Just like how we paid up for our snowy season a few years back.

100% agree. The skies need to heal.

[packbacker]

Eventually we are going to pay for the much below annual snowfall the past 2 seasons. This logic works both ways.

 

True, the past 20 years here in RDU we are at our lowest 20 year average in the past 120 years, which means it must start ticking up, eventually.  For all the griping we do (RDU folks), in the past 15 years ( since 99/2000) we have had 6"+ events in 6 of those years, on average we typically average a 6"+ event every 2-3 years, which is right on average, it's the skunk years that have killed our averages.

[Cold Rain]

There is no debt anyway. Fat years and lean years happen all the time, and long-term trends skew the averages meaning that even in the long-haul, we may never get "repaid".

That's exactly right.