Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[buckeyefan1]

CAE says it's too warm for anything more than sprinkles

 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGING WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SHOWS GREATER MOISTURE SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE EAST PART.
THE MODELS DISPLAYS CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
0.01 OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST TO 0.1 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE NAM HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE
INITIAL DRYNESS AND THE H5 CONFLUENT PATTERN SHOWN BY THE NAM PLUS
JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS...WE BELIEVE THE
NAM POPS ARE OVERDONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN BECAUSE OF THE LOW DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA PLUS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL ALSO KEEPS WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST PART WHERE THERE WILL BE
LESS SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION AND LESS EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL. ALL OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON THESE FACTORS WE FORECASTED RAIN INSTEAD
OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

 

 

I do like the sound of the long term though

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
MAINTAINING A CONSISTENT FORECAST. MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING
IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER
NOW WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE
COAST WILL LEAD TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE REGION. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY BECOMING OVERCAST ON SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS WET AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH I HAVE RIGHT NOW IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS GIVES US AROUND
1.25 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS IS ANOTHER TRICKY
CALL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT COULD BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN. THERE IS FAR
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW ONLY HAVE 15 PERCENT POP IN NORTHERN PART OF CWA AND WX TYPE
IS RAIN SHOWER. AS I MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME STAYING ON A CONSISTENT TRACK LATELY SO WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES.

[FallsLake]

Probably never. JB does this SSW thing every year. I don't see how some say the SSW event last January is what caused the very cold March. Does it really take that long for the effects to reach us?

I'm surprised it's quiet in here with a potentially minor ZR/IP across NC. Last year, it would have been like 10 pages just to see a few sleet pellets or a 2 hour delay from freezing drizzle.

Just woke up from nap (really needed it) and was very surprised to see this potential. looking at the 18z NAM, potions of the RDU area could see upwards of .25 liquid. With a cold surface this could turn into a real problem. Interesting...   

 

Side yard temp down to 33.1. I think dew point is near 9 at RDU

[FallsLake]

18z NAM 24 hour precip totals

 

Simulated radar at hour 18:

 

[NEGa]

pop up surprises have been much more common in n ga, at least, than the far out progged monster storms.  this is a good example (for some of us at least ) also now that some colder temps are around if we can get a GOM low this weekend like there are indications we may have at some point sat. or sun.  we might have something to watch at least - and it would be a couple of days away not the dreaded and now infamous 10-days away cold or event

[WidreMann]

18z NAM 24 hour precip totals

 

Simulated radar at hour 18:

 

Do the 24 hour totals only till about 15z tops. It warms quickly midday.

[pcbjr]

and it would be a couple of days away not the dreaded and now infamous 10-days away cold or event

 

The last time we had sticking snow down here (1989), it came on a closed ULL that no one / no where ever expected, anticipated or imagined until after it was happening. Then it was WTF by all the "pro's".  Two Novembers ago on the AT south of Suches, GA, a freak snowstorm happened that made hiking impossible for a while - again - with no mets predicting it until we had 3 inches on the ground already and finally got a warning on the hand-held weather radio.

 

This is the SE when and where improbable things can happen without models having a clue.

 

So, Merry Christmas and may your dreams come true!

[Jon]

Probably never. JB does this SSW thing every year. I don't see how some say the SSW event last January is what caused the very cold March. Does it really take that long for the effects to reach us?

I'm surprised it's quiet in here with a potentially minor ZR/IP across NC. Last year, it would have been like 10 pages just to see a few sleet pellets or a 2 hour delay from freezing drizzle.

Exactly that, it's extremely marginal. Haven't looked at bufkit but from the text soundings I just don't see a large enough window for ZR,  but we'll see how the higher res models trend as we get closer and in-range of them. This is definitely a spotty, mostly rain event, not too pumped about it.

[Tacoma]

Lol at how much the op euro changes past day 5. Not sure why it even gets talked about so much. What happen to the wave for next week? Poof.

yes same old same old cold temps coming next week and the storm disappears. Go Figure same old same old.

[GaWx]

Folks,

There's an interesting mainly rather modest snow event for some 1/2-3 on the 18Z GFS. Actually, the setup isn't too far from a full-blown classic Miller A snowstorm. If we can keep the cold air but also get a bit more WSW/moist flow involved, this period could turn even more interesting. This period has been looking kind of interesting off and on on the model consensus and should be monitored for the chance of something of wintry significance.

[WidreMann]

The last time we had sticking snow down here (1989), it came on a closed ULL that no one / no where ever expected, anticipated or imagined until after it was happening. Then it was WTF by all the "pro's".  Two Novembers ago on the AT south of Suches, GA, a freak snowstorm happened that made hiking impossible for a while - again - with no mets predicting it until we had 3 inches on the ground already and finally got a warning on the hand-held weather radio.

 

This is the SE when and where improbable things can happen without models having a clue.

 

So, Merry Christmas and may your dreams come true!

That was 25 years ago. The modelling has improved significantly since then.

[Tacoma]

Folks,

There's an interesting mainly rather modest snow event for some 1/2-3 on the 18Z GFS. Actually, the setup isn't too far from a full-blown classic Miller A snowstorm. If we can keep the cold air but also get a bit more WSW/moist flow involved, this period could turn even more interesting. This period has been looking kind of interesting off and on on the model consensus and should be monitored for the chance of something of wintry significance.

I hope your right. I would settle for a modest event for a change over rain again. I know these systems disappear only to appear again. Hope it appears and takes hold like a tick on a coon dog.

[pcbjr]

That was 25 years ago. The modelling has improved significantly since then.

 

Like last week when I was supposed to be 40 and it was 29 on a one day NWS local forecast?

 

Yes - modeling has gotten better since 1989 (but my 2 year ago example is relatively current) - but it is still modeling nonetheless, and sometimes computer input does not equate with what actually happens.

 

Yes - models are important, and I respect them, but they are not a god. (Sandy?)

[superjames1992]

Fire up the cars and hit the beaches, folks, because the 18z GFS looks good for the NC Outer Banks.  Surface temperatures don't even appear to be too bad, verbatim.  It probably won't happen, but it is certainly a possibility.  It looks like it gives some areas of central GA a little bit of snow and spreads high-ratio flizzards further north into NC and SC.

 

In all seriousness, I don't think that's a bad run to see at this point.

[NCCatawba]

That was 25 years ago. The modelling has improved significantly since then.

 

Valentine's Day Snow, Piedmont Triad. 

[FallsLake]

Do the 24 hour totals only till about 15z tops. It warms quickly midday.

RAH mentioned precip starting around day break. As others have stated, I'm also not expecting anything big. But this is interesting because the surface will be rather cold and the dew points are very low at the moment. I would say we have a fair chance at a surprise event. I guess we'll know tomorrow morning. Current back yard temp has dropped to 29.8      

[Tacoma]

can't blame u guys for being excited about tomorrow morning but man I'm hoping for next Thursday or Friday and hopefully a classic miller A event for the upstate and all of nc and northern Ga.  

[GaWx]

I hope your right. I would settle for a modest event for a change over rain again. I know these systems disappear only to appear again. Hope it appears and takes hold like a tick on a coon dog.

 

 What is often best for the bulk of the SE is a rather weak (nonphasing) Miller A/suppressed surface low (which keeps it cold enough) traveling E or ENE beneath nearby Arctic air. The 18Z GFS for 1/2-3 isn't too far from that imo.

[dsaur]

The last time we had sticking snow down here (1989), it came on a closed ULL that no one / no where ever expected, anticipated or imagined until after it was happening. Then it was WTF by all the "pro's".  Two Novembers ago on the AT south of Suches, GA, a freak snowstorm happened that made hiking impossible for a while - again - with no mets predicting it until we had 3 inches on the ground already and finally got a warning on the hand-held weather radio.

 

This is the SE when and where improbable things can happen without models having a clue.

 

So, Merry Christmas and may your dreams come true!

 My whole life down here has been based on the surprise storm no one saw until 3 days out, or closer, with the exception of the Blizzard, which my always hero weather lady person weekend hero told me about the Fri night before the Thursday that is forever exhaulted   ...and a few others.  If it wasn't for the storms no one saw coming, I'd have only seen sleet, and snow a few times in  all my years, lol.  T

[dsaur]

 What is often best for the bulk of the SE is a rather weak Miller A/suppressed surface low (which keeps it cold enough)traveling E or ENE beneath nearby Arctic air. The 18Z GFS for 1/2-3 isn't too far from that imo.

 Need that wsw wind, Larry, don't forget that!  That's my storm signal now, when things look to be cooking off.  T

  Fixed it, lol....too much Xmas cheer.

[FallsLake]

Looking at other models, looks like the NAM is the outlier on how far west the precip establishes itself. So I would say at this time most folks in the Raleigh area do not have much to worry about. But lets see what the models day tonight.

[WidreMann]

Valentine's Day Snow, Piedmont Triad.

That wasn't a huge event. We were already expecting precip, there was just a little more of it and the atmosphere was a little colder.

[GaWx]

 Need that wsw wind, Larry, don't forget that!  That's my storm signal now, when things look to be cooking off.  T

  Fixed it, lol....too much Xmas cheer.

 

 I agree. But even as it is modeled now, verbatim, the 18Z GFS has light snow from the afternoon of 1/2 to the morning of 1/3 in many areas of NC, SC, and GA. In NC, the heaviest appears to be near Wilmington (~2") and the coast to the NE (up to 5"!) as was suggested by superjames1992. In GA, Macon, Augusta, Columbus, Atlanta, Athens, and Tony get  a nice hit of 0.5" to 1". Even Savannah gets some flurries. In SC, GSP, MYR, COLA, and CHS also get the nice ~0.5 to 1". Surface temperatures are plenty cold with 20's in many cases for a good portion.

 So, the 1/2-3 period may turn out to be the most interesting period to date of this winter for many in the SE. We'll see.

[NEGa]

The last time we had sticking snow down here (1989), it came on a closed ULL that no one / no where ever expected, anticipated or imagined until after it was happening. Then it was WTF by all the "pro's". Two Novembers ago on the AT south of Suches, GA, a freak snowstorm happened that made hiking impossible for a while - again - with no mets predicting it until we had 3 inches on the ground already and finally got a warning on the hand-held weather radio.

This is the SE when and where improbable things can happen without models having a clue.

So, Merry Christmas and may your dreams come true!

Same to you my dream came true couple years ago when we had a white Christmas

Several times we can get a burst of snow like that that racks up before the mets figure it out lol.

[DaculaWeather]

Right now I don't see any sign of a strat warming.

I use three different pages to watch the strat temps and heights.

I like this page because it's  a simple running graph of temps: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php

For graphs of temps and anomalies, as well as heights and anomalies, and history, here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php

And charts you normally see: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php

I also have the Euro charts too.

[NCCatawba]

Right now I don't see any sign of a strat warming.

@BigJoeBastardi 9hours ago

strat warm event continues to evolve and is pointing the way to coldest pattern of winter yet for eastern/central US

[WidreMann]

@BigJoeBastardi 9hours ago

strat warm event continues to evolve and is pointing the way to coldest pattern of winter yet for eastern/central US

The stratosphere always starts to warm a little bit after mid-December. Plus, we're at record cold levels already, so having it warm at all is not unreasonable:

[GaWx]

Right now I don't see any sign of a strat warming.

I use three different pages to watch the strat temps and heights.

I like this page because it's  a simple running graph of temps: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php

For graphs of temps and anomalies, as well as heights and anomalies, and history, here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php

And charts you normally see: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php

I also have the Euro charts too.

 

Steve/folks,

 I see no sign of any start warming yet as per the attached image. Compare where we are today (far right) to the far left side of the graph with that red area, which represents a strat warming in early 2013:

 

[tnweathernut]

Dacula,

This is the chart that JB has been using to point to the potential stratospheric warming. I know he pushes the envelope often in an effort to prove where he thinks things are headed, but I was surprised to hear you say you have been keeping up with it and not seeing any signs.......

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[WidreMann]

Dacula,

This is the chart that JB has been using to point to the potential stratospheric warming. I know he pushes the envelope often in an effort to prove where he thinks things are headed, but I was surprised to hear you say you have been keeping up with it and not seeing any signs.......

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What you are showing is not an anomaly or a trend chart. If you look at any of the anomalies and trend charts, you'll see no sign of any real warming, just a slight recovery from the very cold temps we're seeing now.

[Jon]

 

@BigJoeBastardi 9hours ago

strat warm event continues to evolve and is pointing the way to coldest pattern of winter yet for eastern/central US

 

That's the equivalent of posting a 240hr frame of GFS/Euro as evidence of a block. Strat warming has been modeled to occur, whether or not it has begun or will occur as depicted in the above GFS 240hr is still up in the air.