NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Brad Panovich says nam spits out sleet tomorrow morning areas around Charlotte, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Cold looking run of the GFS there. Several threats to track. T138 and T216 look very interesting. May have to start a thread soon. Glad Santa came through. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yeah, looks like New Year's Eve flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GFS is close to popping a storm in the SE day 6. let's hope the cold is still around for the moisture to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 This 12z gfs run loses the insanely stupid cold for 1/4/14. It is only about 27C warmer at 850 as of 6z 1/4 with ~+6C at Atl vs. -21C! The stupidest cold of this run isn't til 1/8, when the 850 gets down to -16C at Rdu and -11C at Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yeah, looks like New Year's Eve flakes. snowstorm I hope than just flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yeah, looks like New Year's Eve flakes. this would be good I'll be home the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Here is the 'Big One' to compare to January 21 1985. Surface temperatures in the NC Mountains got down to a record -34F. Yep 1985 has been the top 8-14 day analog for a couple of days. It would be cool to break some records when people were saying torch and SE ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Steve Brule Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 You can take temps like that and shove them! Especially since there's no precip around. It only needs to be about 25 to get a great snow to liquid ratio. I don't need any busted water pipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Another soaker, where is the cold when moisture is here!!!! same old song and dance! WxSouth The theory of the Weekend Rain still rings true in the Southeast. Yet another soaker rain event is coming up, so forecasts are going to flip from partly sunny to rain soon all across Alabama, Georgia, the Caroinas and Virginia. There has been a definite tendency on the weekend rains going back all the way through late October. This was the event that looked like it would remain only in Florida, but has now pulled north, like almost all events do in the Gulf. A few spots in Georgia and the Carolinas could go over the 2" amounts again, meaning more cities are probably going to join Asheville and Macon for the wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Lol, the best part is Goofy's gone from dry for 10 days yesterday, to a pretty good rain in 3 days today. Looking beyond 3 days and expecting what you see is a fools errand most times, and even looking out 3 days, changes often from day to day. The trends have been wet so I didn't believe what it said yesterday, and I'm hopeful, but cautious, about rain in 3 days...until it's in the bucket It's Jan coming, and it usually finds a way to be cold..it's the moisture you need to worry about...and timing. If Larry's 850 records were to come about, I find it hard to believe there would be any moisture around. What you want is for the moisture to come into just cold enough, and the record lows to come in after to freeze it down. Too cold...too dry....except for the times I can count on one hand. Sno Jam comes to mind where it was way cold.... low teen cold.... before, but it took forever for that cutoff to come up into it. Those are rare according to my memory. 28 to 32 seems to be the range for most storms down here. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Got a split at the 10mb today on the PV but its way out there in la la land.First time I've seen one at that level though this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GEFS mean looks a good bit wetter over the first few days of January than it did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GEFS mean looks a good bit wetter over the first few days of January than it did last night. It had several amped up ones, which were rain for us but a couple of members gave nice events for us. The bad thing is a lot of the members with a low over the lakes that stops the cold air feed and results in a miller B type scenario north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Looks like FoothillsNC isn't giving us much hope south of I-20. I guess that means winter is done in Atlanta, Birmingham, etc ? Robert's better than many , but asking him to nail down a 75 mile swath of something from something that isn't happening 'til who knows when, is a bit much. The way I've always looked at it is if it's in Ga somewhere, I at least have a better chance than if its in Tenn., lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It had several amped up ones, which were rain for us but a couple of members gave nice events for us. The bad thing is a lot of the members with a low over the lakes that stops the cold air feed and results in a miller B type scenario north of us. No doubt a product of the PV being in the wrong place, which is the product of the lack of good blocking. Hopefully, good blocking will evolve in the not to distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 At first it looked like this weekend rainstorm would be limited to areas like, FL, S GA, Coastal Carolinas. Now the same areas that just got nailed will probably again if the latest GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 12Z EURO is not close on day 6 like the GFS...of course it looks like it handles the SW UL/trough differently than the GFS, as it holds the energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Raleigh is not confident enough for a freezing rain advisory in the Piedmont. However, they said they will revisit this if guidance trends wetter today. If any sleet becomes a concern it may be a Winter Weather Advisory in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Another soaker, where is the cold when moisture is here!!!! same old song and dance! WxSouth The theory of the Weekend Rain still rings true in the Southeast. Yet another soaker rain event is coming up, so forecasts are going to flip from partly sunny to rain soon all across Alabama, Georgia, the Caroinas and Virginia. There has been a definite tendency on the weekend rains going back all the way through late October. This was the event that looked like it would remain only in Florida, but has now pulled north, like almost all events do in the Gulf. A few spots in Georgia and the Carolinas could go over the 2" amounts again, meaning more cities are probably going to join Asheville and Macon for the wettest year on record. When is the moisture supposed to be here? There's a cold front coming through Sunday. Also the map shows 11/25/13 for 12/30/13.Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Raleigh and surrounding areas now in hazardous weather outlook for winter weather late tonight into tomorrow morning. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE SUBTLENATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULDPAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND BEPREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVINGCONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY DECEMBER 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC848 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-261400-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-848 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTICLATE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINACOAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP INLANDOVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAYMORNING. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ANYLIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHTFREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE SUBTLENATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULDPAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND BEPREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVINGCONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY DECEMBER 26..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 When is the moisture supposed to be here? There's a cold front coming through Sunday. Also the map shows 11/25/13 for 12/30/13.Am I missing something? that is WxSouth tweet I posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 When is the moisture supposed to be here? There's a cold front coming through Sunday. Also the map shows 11/25/13 for 12/30/13.Am I missing something? [/quote if we're expecting all these cold temps. where is the snow with a storm coming? gee what does it take? we're looking a cold temps until the storm decides to turn north and give us lots of moisture and now it looks like rain, what happened to cold temps. we'll never get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Lol at how much the op euro changes past day 5. Not sure why it even gets talked about so much. What happen to the wave for next week? Poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 18z NAM...might be enough for Raleigh south-west to see a freezing rain advisory. Looks like a 4 hour window of opportunity...nothing too sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Anyone know when we in SE start feeling the cold effects of the start warming J/B is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Anyone know when we in SE start feeling the cold effects of the start warming J/B is talking about.strategy warning will take awhile maybe a month. The ao is going negative and the pna positive. Nao might go slightly negative too. We will feel the affects of that next week and the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Anyone know when we in SE start feeling the cold effects of the start warming J/B is talking about.Probably never. JB does this SSW thing every year. I don't see how some say the SSW event last January is what caused the very cold March. Does it really take that long for the effects to reach us? I'm surprised it's quiet in here with a potentially minor ZR/IP across NC. Last year, it would have been like 10 pages just to see a few sleet pellets or a 2 hour delay from freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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