Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Just in time for winter, our favorite wintertime pattern sets in on the 240 Euro: A robustly -PNA, a nice +NAO, and a world class SE ridge. The only thing missing is the famous GOA vortex, although there is troughing there. But almost perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I think everyone's curled up in the fetal position after seeing the long range on today's 12z Euro. It looked a little torchy. Edit: Not really torchy...just warmer than most would like it. I haven't read back this thread but the weeklies were warm for the 2nd half of Dec. So it looks like we get a nice 5 week break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Just in time for winter, our favorite wintertime pattern sets in on the 240 Euro: A robustly -PNA, a nice +NAO, and a world class SE ridge. The only thing missing is the famous GOA vortex, although there is troughing there. But almost perfect! Yep ENS support too, lovely SE ridge :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Just in time for winter, our favorite wintertime pattern sets in on the 240 Euro: A robustly -PNA, a nice +NAO, and a world class SE ridge. The only thing missing is the famous GOA vortex, although there is troughing there. But almost perfect! It still looks like it could be icy in Ohio/Kentucky and the TN valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It still looks like it could be icy in Ohio/Kentucky and the TN valley And Texas and Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 And Texas and Louisiana. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Looking at every model I can find - one observation seems apparent: there is a reason the GA/FLA line was drawn where it is. Cold stops this year at the border .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Just in time for winter, our favorite wintertime pattern sets in on the 240 Euro: A robustly -PNA, a nice +NAO, and a world class SE ridge. The only thing missing is the famous GOA vortex, although there is troughing there. But almost perfect! Say it isn't so!! It reads like the Accuweather Winter Forecast. :-( Winter forecasting is tough and many years the first 10 days of December will set the major pattern. Give me a front loaded winter anytime so the ground will stay snow covered. Once the sun starts its dirty work after the end of January, snow accumulation is tougher to keep around. Hoping for a December 2009 repeat of a solid pre Christmas snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We may have already had our coldest weather the winter of 2013-2014 has to offer our area. I just hope it doesn't turn too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Say it isn't so!! It reads like the Accuweather Winter Forecast. :-( Winter forecasting is tough and many years the first 10 days of December will set the major pattern. Give me a front loaded winter anytime so the ground will stay snow covered. Once the sun starts its dirty work after the end of January, snow accumulation is tougher to keep around. Hoping for a December 2009 repeat of a solid pre Christmas snow this year. You guys know the models flip and flop. Many forecasters still believe big winter including wxsouth. So I'm not concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yep. We need to give it a couple of days before we get worried. I remember back in late October the models started showing a warm November and then backed away. We all know how that ended up. Who knows this time. It would be good to see the 00z suite revert back to what it had been showing a couple of days ago. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 If you need a little therapy, go to wxrisk's FB page and watch his "This week in weather" video. It's a feel good video if you are a winter weather lover. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yes it was a great and exciting read, but he posted this about an hour before the 12z euro torch and southeast ridge run and i can't find a peep out of him since. I was at least hoping to see him post something about it being a bogus run. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Fwiw, the 0Z gfs is looking much better than the prior 2 runs as of hour 174. Let's see how the run goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 I am on the cold train......... Until I see the EPO go positive, I am sticking to my guns. Models have been very un-reliable at that range and I think the Euro is showing its' bias of holding the energy back. If you watch each run past 180h, it will drive you insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Fwiw, the 0Z gfs is looking much better than the prior 2 runs as of hour 174. Let's see how the run goes from here. Yes it is. The ridge off the west coast is much higher up into Alaska vs 12z. also the cold is further south and east than at 12z. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yes it is. The ridge off the west coast is much higher up into Alaska vs 12z. also the cold is further south and east than at 12z. TW Major to historic Carolina snowstorm (mainly NC and N SC) 12/8-9 on 0Z gfs fwiw per clown. Heaviest 8-12" Charlotte to Brick's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I am on the cold train......... Until I see the EPO go positive, I am sticking to my guns. Models have been very un-reliable at that range and I think the Euro is showing its' bias of holding the energy back. If you watch each run past 180h, it will drive you insane. Could not agree more. We are in a volatile time with the models and have been for some time. Way to early to punt any month or winter in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yes it was a great and exciting read, but he posted this about an hour before the 12z euro torch and southeast ridge run and i can't find a peep out of him since. I was at least hoping to see him post something about it being a bogus run. TW He commented on it through FB, saying he thought wintry precip "more likely" for Richmond Dec 9-11...... I think 0z looks good through truncation tonight. BIG high coming down and some serious low level cold coming with it. Flow out of southwest. Pretty consistent with the overall setup we have been seeing modeled recently. we just need to find a way to branch a high for CAD for you guys on the east side of the mountains.... Ice setup still very much in play down the road. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The BIG thing I notice is the setup for all this is getting into place around hour 180 now, not 240......so it does appear we are reeling it in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Man, GFS really wants some winter weather in some form (this is the same time area of that huge ice storm shown last night @ 00z.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I am on the cold train......... Until I see the EPO go positive, I am sticking to my guns. Models have been very un-reliable at that range and I think the Euro is showing its' bias of holding the energy back. If you watch each run past 180h, it will drive you insane. One thing about Goofy is it's been bringing down the highs, and we have ended up with a pretty cold Nov. in a lot of places, and it picked out a gulf low, which has been a rare thing, and it did drop some over an inch rains, even here in the cursed lands, lol. I don't discount those highs it shows, nor the gulf moisture, out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 It looks like sustained cad, and I'll take my chance with that any time in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Are we canceling winter before meteorological winter even starts? Cool. Oh, I love the fantasy GFS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yep. We need to give it a couple of days before we get worried. I remember back in late October the models started showing a warm November and then backed away. We all know how that ended up. Who knows this time. It would be good to see the 00z suite revert back to what it had been showing a couple of days ago. TW We did have a warm start to November. The intense cold outbreaks we have seen this month have wiped out most of the positive departures and most will end the month below average with the exception being Waycross and everyone below here(Florida). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Mid day temps next Saturday per 6z gfs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We may have already had our coldest weather the winter of 2013-2014 has to offer our area. I just hope it doesn't turn too dry. Really?! Some of you are already throwing in the towel for winter 2013-2014? It's not even December yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Really?! Some of you are already throwing in the towel for winter 2013-2014? It's not even December yet... Crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We may have already had our coldest weather the winter of 2013-2014 has to offer our area. I just hope it doesn't turn too dry. No way man. I think winter hasn't started yet and we've had two bonus storms and is still fall. From what I keep reading around Dec. 10 time frame is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 We may have already had our coldest weather the winter of 2013-2014 has to offer our area. I just hope it doesn't turn too dry. That's a bold statement. What are you basing that on?..... I would give it a 5% chance of verifying and that's being generous. It would be rare to get the coldest temps of the winter in November... It could have happened here in 1950. I will have to check, but again, it's rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.