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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

CAD_Wedge_NC

By CAD_Wedge_NC,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Warmer?? That's the understatement of the year. This run is putrid.... Have to check the ensembles to see if they agree.

Ens mean looks like the Op, interesting run...do I believe it? No. If the 00z Euro spits out something similar we can start to worry...No blocking whatsoever so the PV is just dislodged, or never gets lodged in the first place, and forms over Iceland/Scandinavia...creates a huge ridge over the Atlantic which moves into the east coast. This is definitely not the trend we've seen in the past days, I'd like to see the individual members.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Ens mean looks like the Op, interesting run...do I believe it? No. If the 00z Euro spits out something similar we can start to worry...No blocking whatsoever so the PV is just dislodged, or never gets lodged in the first place, and forms over Iceland/Scandinavia...creates a huge ridge over the Atlantic which moves into the east coast. This is definitely not the trend we've seen in the past days, I'd like to see the individual members.

The individual members were split, the ones that had tall ridging in the west had the east coast trough with -AO. Definitely not what we want to see on the mean.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why people are getting upset. There was no strong reasoning for this pattern change, and it was all in the 8+ day range anyway. That's not a good time range to hang your hat on.

 

The biggest reason is people saying it is coming, on here and facebook. Maybe it is just wishful thinking. Two days everyone was saying how good it look with the negative this and positive that.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why people are getting upset. There was no strong reasoning for this pattern change, and it was all in the 8+ day range anyway. That's not a good time range to hang your hat on.

Who is upset besides weenies who believe 1 model run of the GooFuS? Unless the euro mean in the LR has something to agree with the 18z GFS about, I'm good with still smelling what the models have been cooking here for the last few days.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The pattern change and upheaval is about complete. Now, we will embark on a near repeat of the November pattern, but centered a little more east, and this is key. If you loop the Polar view of GFS, which looks reasonable through days 8 (hour 192 anyway) it shows what will probably happen: A north pole block that slides due west and then splits. That forms an Alaska 5H cutoff cold low for a while, but its retrograding quickly and will fall in with the deep Pacific Trough with time. That means the Pacific ridge will be allowed to remain semi-stationary. Bascially a western ridge, eastern trough. There is the slightest hint of northern Greenland ridging in the means at days 9 and beyond, and the Polar Vortex fills in multiple times on itself. This will keep the overall trough in the east, even though indvidual s/w will still be able slide out, there should be no Southeast ridge this time  of any size or length. Meanwhile, all models show a southwest low near the Baja or off southern California that lurks and will slide east. When that comes east is obviously the biggest question for the East. So far, they have come east in tandem with central or Western Troughs, which means they cut west of the Apps.  The models show that may not happen this time though. Usually, that track is common first thing in the Winter, but not so later on. And the last two Winters we've had nothing but that track, except last Spring when a SSW changed the flow. Right now we have SSW in place again, and even though theres still no real neg. NAO (yet)--its likely coming though) this next track has a decent chance of being somewhat supressed because the models all show a more eastern trough than central/west.  They show strong Arctic Highs to the north that don't rush out to sea. So it will really be crucial as to when that southern stream slides east about this time next week. It's stiill far out enough to be a big question, but I think this one has a slight shot of remaining supressed long enough to give much more of the upper Southeast a shot at Wintry precip. Not just western KY, TN , ARK, TX and western Virginia, but more of TN , northern Alabama, northern Ga and the Carolinas. What you want to see is for it to be pretty weak, not strong. Also, the system this weekend is weak, but I've been watching it for FL, southern GA and eastern Carolinas, and it looks like  a great rainmaker.  Weaker systems, unphased are good for the Southern tier. whereas phased systems are good for MidAtlantic like DC northward, and actually this may trend that way.  Keep your eyes on both Euro and GFS at days  7 and 8 with this, and hope for a supressed look..this has been one incredible year for rainmakers for southwest lows. I've seen 7 events drop over 3" each time, which I never saw happen in the lee of the Apps before. And it's been cold, but of course, the cold moves out just before the rain comes in , and the storm works west of the Apps, which this may very well do. But even if this one cuts west, it will benefit Arkansas, western TN, KY and probably northern TX, OK with more snow, but yet the longer range shows a developing negative NAO and a dual blocking signature--the mother of all Southeast Winter patterns. We never get that. Although a true southern Greenland block is all that is needed for supressed flow, that dual block is a guarantee of a very wide region of snow and mixed precip, but thats way out there yet, if it even happens. Lots of factors at play as always, like the MJO, (its good--heading toward 8 and 1), the SST anomalies, they look good and a weak nino likely developing, with a handoff from a good Pacific to a good Atlantic. Definitely don't give up on a wild snow or Winter storm north of 20 yet, its way too early and the chances are high that the Spring is blocky atleast through mid March. Although a Winter thaw should occur after this next cold pattern.  This is 180 deg. different from the last two years, no drought, and there's plenty of cold available north of Florida. It may really go into historic category if we could ever line up a negative NAO centered in southern Greenland, with snow and ice well south in Alabama and Georgia.   I can't say thats going to happen, but some long term models do show that, however I don't trust many long range models this year and have been forecasting using synoptics first, then teleconnections, analogs and persistence.

Merry Christmas to everyone!! This time 3 years ago a rare White Christmas was about to start...time flies. `Robert

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

Posted
Posted

Looks like FoothillsNC isn't giving us much hope south of I-20. I guess that means winter is done in Atlanta, Birmingham, etc ?

 

Inferring something is totally different from him not mentioning it. It's almost like backyard question for a winter storm that has not formed yet in the month of February. Nobody knows exactly what area will be impacted.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Is there some meteorological reason for the general year over year impossibility of a -NAO pattern as opposed to the + one that tends to dominate? Most years, it seems we watch for one all winter long, but it remains elusive, outside of a few minor appearances.

CPC historical climo data of the NAO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

I am a big believer the solar cycles influence, min vs max, on what is realized senseble terms 3rd rock from the sun. Just from looking at the data linked above, a run towards neutral followed by another positive period? Unsure, if the NAO manages to go negative for a short period, could it sustain there, doubtful right now. There are two systems in the North Atlantic we need to watch over the next 10 days, one around day 6 and the other near day 10, depending on strength, they could aid in pumping a weak ride into central Greenland which prevents the PV from retro grading, or at least a split into Scandinavia.

Do not latch on to every op run outside of day 5, especially with the upcoming 14+ day period. Someone stated in the MA sub, "it's shaping up to be a every man for yourself winter," volatility is afoot, the NH H5 picture is anything but stable, borderline pattern change as I associate a pattern lasting 2-3 weeks minimum. One likes to see the stable lobes, this gives confidence of what troughs are carving out where and for how long. In the absence of North Atlantic blocking, there is no mechanism to lock the neg anomalies into central and eastern Canada. Ens means outside day 5 hold the weight, for those who do not, read the CPC extended discos, how many times do they base a forecast on the ops?

Sent from my iPad

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why people are getting upset. There was no strong reasoning for this pattern change, and it was all in the 8+ day range anyway. That's not a good time range to hang your hat on.

 

I don't know, it might be that they were following your forecast thoughts...

 

 

Euro is supportive of real blocking in the Pacific and some sort of slightly positive but potentially heading negative NAO situation in the Atlantic. It's been consistent for several runs now. Regardless, it will be a cooler pattern in early January.

We've gotten enough consistency with the major models that it's safe to say we're looking at a colder pattern for the last part of December and the beginning of January. Beyond that, it's a crap chute.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

 

Merry Christmas to everyone!! This time 3 years ago a rare White Christmas was about to start...time flies. `Robert

Merry Christmas Robert   :wub:  I changed my fb picture today while I was reminiscing that wonderful day  ;)  

 

 

 

CPC historical climo data of the NAO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

I am a big believer the solar cycles influence, min vs max, on what is realized senseble terms 3rd rock from the sun. Just from looking at the data linked above, a run towards neutral followed by another positive period? Unsure, if the NAO manages to go negative for a short period, could it sustain there, doubtful right now. There are two systems in the North Atlantic we need to watch over the next 10 days, one around day 6 and the other near day 10, depending on strength, they could aid in pumping a weak ride into central Greenland which prevents the PV from retro grading, or at least a split into Scandinavia.

Do not latch on to every op run outside of day 5, especially with the upcoming 14+ day period. Someone stated in the MA sub, "it's shaping up to be a every man for yourself winter," volatility is afoot, the NH H5 picture is anything but stable, borderline pattern change as I associate a pattern lasting 2-3 weeks minimum. One likes to see the stable lobes, this gives confidence of what troughs are carving out where and for how long. In the absence of North Atlantic blocking, there is no mechanism to lock the neg anomalies into central and eastern Canada. Ens means outside day 5 hold the weight, for those who do not, read the CPC extended discos, how many times do they base a forecast on the ops?

Sent from my iPad

When isn't it? :lol:  :P 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

It still looks below normal in the medium range, but the the biggest difference I've seen is that the western ridging is more muted...it's not extending boldly into Alaska or Western Canada. I still think any -AO/-NAO signals need to show up close in on the modeling before they can be believed

Could be the modeling was too quick with that kind of pattern change too.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Ens means outside day 5 hold the weight, for those who do not, read the CPC extended discos, how many times do they base a forecast on the ops?

 

Very good point which others make on here as well.  I really like the CPC discos and forecasts.  They do a good job of blending the ensemble and op runs of the major models...with a lean toward the ensembles.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

CPC historical climo data of the NAOhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

I am a big believer the solar cycles influence, min vs max, on what is realized senseble terms 3rd rock from the sun. Just from looking at the data linked above, a run towards neutral followed by another positive period? Unsure, if the NAO manages to go negative for a short period, could it sustain there, doubtful right now. There are two systems in the North Atlantic we need to watch over the next 10 days, one around day 6 and the other near day 10, depending on strength, they could aid in pumping a weak ride into central Greenland which prevents the PV from retro grading, or at least a split into Scandinavia.

Do not latch on to every op run outside of day 5, especially with the upcoming 14+ day period. Someone stated in the MA sub, "it's shaping up to be a every man for yourself winter," volatility is afoot, the NH H5 picture is anything but stable, borderline pattern change as I associate a pattern lasting 2-3 weeks minimum. One likes to see the stable lobes, this gives confidence of what troughs are carving out where and for how long. In the absence of North Atlantic blocking, there is no mechanism to lock the neg anomalies into central and eastern Canada. Ens means outside day 5 hold the weight, for those who do not, read the CPC extended discos, how many times do they base a forecast on the ops?

Sent from my iPad

Yeah, ensemble forecasting is definitely the way to go. Your 2-3 week pattern window seems like the way to play it this year. Would be nice to get a period of decent blocking, like Robert mentioned, in the January time frame, but it doesn't look to be in the cards over the next couple of weeks really. All in all, a better winter than last year, pattern-wise, but not quite great yet.

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