Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[tazaroo]

I'm more optimistic and agree with Jon.  The 12z GFS ENS still show major cold most of the run with a relaxation a day or two  is all.  Of course we may not see the mostly wall to wall cold but a variant to a lesser degree can get the job done in Jan.  

 

Also,  the Ens means still support precip around the first or 2nd with below normal temps as well. 

[Poimen]

The 12Z Euro does not have our ~day 10 storm, as it keeps the upper low in the SW too long. However, it does show a Greenland block developing days 9-10, FWIW. In fact, the PV is in NY state on day 10!

 

I still favor a storm for the SE around day 10, as the models and ensembles have been indicating for several days.

[metalicwx366]

the neg talk can be a joke, i see no such thing. , when u have a pattern change it's good too look at ensembles until the op catches on .

Lol, so what if the ensembles start showing what the op shows?

[bobbitt]

Lol, so what if the ensembles start showing what the op shows?

a pattern change is a wait an see until it happens, but the ensemble means is the way too go if u looking at where the pattern an cold will be .

[franklin NCwx]

Lol, so what if the ensembles start showing what the op shows?

the op follows the ensembles, not the other way around.

[BIG FROSTY]

Winter is coming just get prepared! this is coming straight from the North Pole. models with waffle back and forth just get prepared for major winter weather.

[Joe75]

Guys I'm by far no Met . I just follow and listen , but one thing that comes to mind  with a pattern change is don't hang on each model run. I've heard it many times from some very good Mets look at the trends. IF we are in a true pattern change it will take a while for the models to "catch on". Maybe as close to 3-4 day range. So far MOST of the players are on the field , but WE are in the SE . With that said WE rely on the stars and the moon and sun to line up perfectly to recieve witer weather . Not really but you get what I mean. We live in a place where it can be "to cold to snow" everyone around here has seen that or we get 33 and rain. But I love snow or winter weather just as each and everyone on here does.I do feel like we are seeing a pattern change or atleast a hybred  there of. Its coming January now its that time of year where we  have that on our side, plus the fact we are still in a active weather pattern and and thats one  thing the models do agree on is that it is still an active weather pattern. The only thing I can see that would really hurt our chances of seeing winter weather is if we see a repeat of late September, or October weather where we were normal to below normal temperature with dry conditions. This is just my two cents worth on things . I wish everone a Very Merry Christmas and atleast its not 80 outside. We may not have snow on the ground , but atleast it feels like Christmas. Merry Christmas everyone.

[SN_Lover]

Guys I'm by far no Met . I just follow and listen , but one thing that comes to mind  with a pattern change is don't hang on each model run. I've heard it many times from some very good Mets look at the trends. IF we are in a true pattern change it will take a while for the models to "catch on". Maybe as close to 3-4 day range. So far MOST of the players are on the field , but WE are in the SE . With that said WE rely on the stars and the moon and sun to line up perfectly to recieve witer weather . Not really but you get what I mean. We live in a place where it can be "to cold to snow" everyone around here has seen that or we get 33 and rain. But I love snow or winter weather just as each and everyone on here does.I do feel like we are seeing a pattern change or atleast a hybred  there of. Its coming January now its that time of year where we  have that on our side, plus the fact we are still in a active weather pattern and and thats one  thing the models do agree on is that it is still an active weather pattern. The only thing I can see that would really hurt our chances of seeing winter weather is if we see a repeat of late September, or October weather where we were normal to below normal temperature with dry conditions. This is just my two cents worth on things . I wish everone a Very Merry Christmas and atleast its not 80 outside. We may not have snow on the ground , but atleast it feels like Christmas. Merry Christmas everyone.

The way i classify pattern changes are by the long wave pattern. By definition of the atmosphere, the pattern is changing every minute. As humans we have our own perspective on what a "pattern change" is. The word is very subjective. 

[Jon]

So the 12z Euro OP basically took what Widre pointed out about the 00z Euro OP and said "jk!"....12z much colder all the way up until 240hrs. Obviously the Euro OP is having trouble here, I expect the Euro eps mean to be like the 00z mean. In fact, it might be colder in the LR, the negative heights over eastern Canada are much deeper on the 12z OP, that's some impressive cold...if it is unleashed into the SE, watch out, we're breaking records.

[bobbitt]

Winter is coming just get prepared! this is coming straight from the North Pole. models with waffle back and forth just get prepared for major winter weather.

i agree 10000 prcent .

[J.C.]

The temperature difference from one side of the southern Appalachians to the other is about as drastic as it could be today.  High 30s  around Atlanta while approaching 60 here in Columbia, pretty incredible.  

[NCCatawba]

Our heat is gone and it sure does feel like Christmas. This is the first time in a LONG time we will NOT be dealing with another washout this weekend. We have no more small duration torches followed by soaking wet systems for people to whine about. It now appears we are in business as we watch the cold and storm systems progress in the LR. However, in the end it will still come down to aligning these perfectly as I think our source of cold air will be on the move...possibly making our wet snow chances go to mixture...or overall just wreaking havoc on our ptype whether it be wet snow, sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. The pattern change is something that evolves over a long period of time and I think we just got through the door after the last system went overhead. We are here now let's hope for a southern miracle which is for proper timing of cold/moisture together. Not 10% frozen and high slides out to sea giving us 90% liquid.

[franklin NCwx]

The case was never very strong for a true pattern change. What we had was the models showing a -AO, but weakly positive PNA and neutral to positive NAO. The hope was that this would be the first step of a real change to a wintry pattern, but it's becoming clear that it probably won't be. I'll bank on the OPI and snow cover, with its great correlation, over 10+ day model runs.

euro ensembles continue to beat the winter drum all the way to day 15. Weenies panic from op run to op run.

[packbacker]

Euro ENS mean still look good, has west ridge across the pole, trough in the east, by day 12-15 a -NAO starts to build.  The Euro ENS control run has a low off the NC/SC coast heading NE day 9 with 850's plenty cold.  Won't have precip output till later, but it must have some snow in NC/SC/VA.

[tnweathernut]

The biggest concern I have at this point is the state if the NAO. We have had it showing going negative at days 9 and 10 in the last several days.....now still showing beyond day 10. Seems to be the one parameter giving us problems.... JMO

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[NEGa]

the neg talk can be a joke, i see no such thing. , when u have a pattern change it's good too look at ensembles until the op catches on .

this is sort of ironic as i have seen the posts from a lot here go up and down with each and every model run, which is ridiculous. those of us that have been here a while figured out that other than an exception every now and then anything past a couple of days is taken with a grain of salt, and anything 10 days or more is a joke for the most part.  i can thing of only a handful of week out storms that verified. 

 

to say his post was negative and a joke is sort of funny all things considered.  i am now reading about day 9 and 10 and from my recollection around new years was to be a change - which is 7 - 8 days away. so until one of these pattern changes shows promise and is closer its a joke for the models to show them lol

[bobbitt]

The biggest concern I have at this point is the state if the NAO. We have had it showing going negative at days 9 and 10 in the last several days.....now still showing beyond day 10. Seems to be the one parameter giving us problems.... JMO

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neg nao won't matter as much just being neutral can get u a pretty good storm , weaking too neutral an then neg is enough. u dont want it  too cold an surpress the track? do we all toast an will only  get dry cold .but storms pop up an hopefully we get a good one ?

[tnweathernut]

neg nao won't matter as much just being neutral can get u a pretty good storm , weaking too neutral an then neg is enough. u dont want it too cold an surpress the track? do we all toast an will only get dry cold .but storms pop up an hopefully we get a good one ?

Disagree. Give me a choice b/w a negative NAO and a neutral NAO and I will take negative all day long and twice on Sunday.

If you want the potential for slop and Miller B's go with a neutral NAO. Sure, other factors can help offset, but its pretty important.

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[SN_Lover]

neg nao won't matter as much just being neutral can get u a pretty good storm , weaking too neutral an then neg is enough. u dont want it  too cold an surpress the track? do we all toast an will only  get dry cold .but storms pop up an hopefully we get a good one ?

? can you provide proof from a textbook or study? 

[franklin NCwx]

Disagree. Give me a choice b/w a negative NAO and a neutral NAO and I will take negative all day long and twice on Sunday.

If you want the potential for slop and Miller B's go with a neutral NAO. Sure, other factors can help offset, but its pretty important.

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I agree, give me a negative nao any day.

[Cold Rain]

neg nao won't matter as much just being neutral can get u a pretty good storm , weaking too neutral an then neg is enough. u dont want it too cold an surpress the track? do we all toast an will only get dry cold .but storms pop up an hopefully we get a good one ?

I agree that you can and occasionally do get a good storm w/o a -NAO. But here's the problem, and the one we'll likely face this time, assuming we really do get into a sustained colder pattern:

A west-based -NAO helps to displace the PV farther south and east. It helps to lock in a 50/50 and is without a doubt a key feature to have in place if you're going to maximize you chance of a winter storm in these parts.

With a -NAO in place, what you get at the surface is a suppressed storm track and high pressure, stable-nontransient high pressure across the northern tier.

Without it, you get a PV that can escape back north and a 50/50 that doesn't stay 50/50 for long. You get no lasting confluence in the NE and high pressure that slides out. With the PV back north and west, you get energy sliding in through the Lakes, messing up the cold air transport and you get a great setup for a cutting storm track.

Like I said, things can still work out. They have in the past and they will again...maybe this year. But we need to route for the -NAO to show up inside of day 10 consistently, which seems to be a constant theme lately, if we want a legit period of winter weather opportunities.

[IWC]

Really guys, The only one that matters is the next snowfall...

[POWERSTROKE]

Really guys, The only one that matters is the next snowfall...

Yep you are right

[Marion_NC_WX]

A cold and raw Sunday for the Carolina Coastline per the 18z GFS...Surface low really cranks up and delivers 40's and rain from Savannah to Wilmington...

 

[bobbitt]

I agree that you can and occasionally do get a good storm w/o a -NAO. But here's the problem, and the one we'll likely face this time, assuming we really do get into a sustained colder pattern:

A west-based -NAO helps to displace the PV farther south and east. It helps to lock in a 50/50 and is without a doubt a key feature to have in place if you're going to maximize you chance of a winter storm in these parts.

With a -NAO in place, what you get at the surface is a suppressed storm track and high pressure, stable-nontransient high pressure across the northern tier.

Without it, you get a PV that can escape back north and a 50/50 that doesn't stay 50/50 for long. You get no lasting confluence in the NE and high pressure that slides out. With the PV back north and west, you get energy sliding in through the Lakes, messing up the cold air transport and you get a great setup for a cutting storm track.

Like I said, things can still work out. They have in the past and they will again...maybe this year. But we need to route for the -NAO to show up inside of day 10 consistently, which seems to be a constant theme lately, if we want a legit period of winter weather opportunities.

agree but some try too twist my words , all am saying is a neutral trending too a cold neg nao pattern is also ok not great but ok , a example would be a nice slider storm out too sea nothing big but we seen some ok snows from them

 in the past. a big east coast block buster needs a weak too moderate neg nao in place .

[dsaur]

 Ever since March we've been getting highs coming down, generally cooler, with lots of cads.  Blocking has been hard to find, but you have to take what you can get.  Things are cycling every 3 to 6 weeks, and chances come.  Figure after tomorrow for a few weeks or more, then again in Feb, and March, if we are lucky.  You probably get 3 chance periods in an average winter, with some surprises thrown in as well as some upper 60's..... but it always takes luck and timing to pull it off, in Ga. anyway.  Ever since I've been on these boards it seems like N.C. gets hammered every winter....according to lore....but I know that was just Joe, showing off, lol.  And you ain't a whole lot better off than we are, except you get lots more marginal events to work out, and do average more 'cause it generally gets colder...it's just I've come to understand Joe's 100 plus winter was an anomalous,  just as Roberts favorite year, with the pic someone had of snow to the gutters, or the Panthers in the playoffs........just as the last two winter were.  Just hope for normal, and you'll do all right.  This isn't last year, or the year before.  This is this year   You don't need cross polar flows every week, or ginormous  omega blocks....normal will do most of you just fine in an average year.  T

[WeatherNC]

A cold and raw Sunday for the Carolina Coastline per the 18z GFS...Surface low really cranks up and delivers 40's and rain from Savannah to Wilmington...

Canadian had this system two days ago and has not really wavered, props to the CMC inside day 7 if it materializes. We don't need more RN at this point, creeks and Tar river are running high. This could start to be a bigger deal for our friends to the north if it trends closer to the EC, right now appears to exit stage right of the MA and NE.

[pcbjr]

18Z GFS is really warmer than the 0Z, 6Z or 12Z; took away several lows in the upper 20's and replaced them with lows in the upper 30's.

 

Hopefully just a bad run.

 

But who cares - its Christmas Eve!!!!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

18Z GFS is really warmer than the 0Z, 6Z or 12Z; took away several lows in the upper 20's and replaced them with lows in the upper 30's.

 

Hopefully just a bad run.

 

But who cares - its Christmas Eve!!!!

 

Warmer?? That's the understatement of the year. This run is putrid.... Have to check the ensembles to see if they agree.

[pcbjr]

Warmer?? That's the understatement of the year. This run is putrid.... Have to check the ensembles to see if they agree.

 

The year is almost over - maybe I scored?

 

Seriously though, it is just 1 run. Let's see what the next 2 or 3 bring.