Isopycnic Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Wilkes is DT, DT is Wilkes - based on these map renderings I've met DT, he's no CataWilkes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 That's not how I read it, he did say it might not get cold enough for deep SE but overall it sounded positive to me. Your spot looks as good as any, but his map looks good. Yea I talked to him on Saturday he expects to see some wintry weather end of December first of January with active storms. His repeat of November is for cold and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Is there a difference between the forecast discussion and the pattern discussion? We already have a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Oh, man, the 18z GFS shows a major snowstorm changing over to a major ice storm in much of NC on 1/2-1/3. Huge storm, verbatim. InstantWeatherMaps clown shows 3"+ from CLT to RDU north and west and ~8"+ north and west of the Triad. From what I've seen, InstantWeatherMaps' clown map is typically pretty stingy, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Anyone looked at the 18z GFS..... It is a thing of beauty. PV drops south to Southern Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Is there a difference between the forecast discussion and the pattern discussion? We already have a thread. He will be banned before the end of January. Post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Near Euro weeklies fwiw look MUCH better than the prior run for the same period, which had warmer than normal for all four weeks! Week 2 (12/30-1/5): 2 to 3 below normal Week 3 (1/6-1/12): 3 to 4 below normal Week 4 (1/13-1/19): near normal Precip. near normal weeks 2-4 +PNA weeks 2-3; neutral PNA week 4 Solid -AO week 2; weak -AO weeks 3-4 Neutral NAO week 2; +NAO weeks 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Oh, man, the 18z GFS shows a major snowstorm changing over to a major ice storm in much of NC on 1/2-1/3. Huge storm, verbatim. InstantWeatherMaps clown shows 3"+ from CLT to RDU north and west and ~8"+ north and west of the Triad. From what I've seen, InstantWeatherMaps' clown map is typically pretty stingy, too. It's Happy Hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 He will be banned before the end of January. Post here. Lol I am sorry if you do not agree with who made the January thread but making another one because of something so petty to me is ridiculous. Whether he is banned or not has nothing to do with posting in a January discussion thread. Sorry I do not agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Near Euro weeklies fwiw look MUCH better than the prior run for the same period, which had warmer than normal for all four weeks! Week 2 (12/30-1/5): 2 to 3 below normal Week 3 (1/6-1/12): 3 to 4 below normal Week 4 (1/13-1/19): near normal Precip. near normal weeks 2-4 +PNA weeks 2-3; neutral PNA week 4 Solid -AO week 2; weak -AO weeks 3-4 Neutral NAO week 2; +NAO weeks 3-4 Nice to see the weeklies come around although they have been about as bad as the Euro op in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 1044 high but what is there to not let it slide out to sea? Looks like snow to mix. NC certainly in play right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm posting in this one, I say let the mods sort it out! Looks like we should get some record lows in January to sort out the record highs from last week! Nice storm showing for the 1/2-1/3 period, no ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If we end up normal it will be fine by me. Just means some extra cold days and some warmer days, since the Jan averages are pretty good to begin with If the gulf participates, and the lows go by far enough south, then average temps will do the trick. Too cold, no moisture, too strong a storm then too much waa. Get a nice phase, or two with a split flow...super, get a cold cad and a warm storm...zmonster. And early Jan is ripe for cad zrain down here, so some blocking to keep the cold in all layers would be nice. We'll see, what we'll see, but a torch seems less likely the closer we get..happily, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm posting in this one, I say let the mods sort it out! Looks like we should get some record lows in January to sort out the record highs from last week! Nice storm showing for the 1/2-1/3 period, no ice please. I am sure the timing and thermal structure will change many times between now and then, but the models have been honking about a storm in this time-frame for a while. The good news is that there will be plenty of cold air to tap this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't want to be a party pooper, but when I looked at the NCEP maps for the 18z GFS, It looked more like an ice to rain scenario. I don't necessarily believe it, but that's just what it looked like to me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I don't want to be a party pooper, but when I looked at the NCEP maps for the 18z GFS, It looked more like an ice to rain scenario. I don't necessarily believe it, but that's just what it looked like to me. TW By the time the 850 temp retreats north of NC more than .25 liquid falls. This is a case of upper warm chasing the moisture. It's crazy even talking about the details so far out but that's what it looks like to me. Also with that setup the CAD would be more pronounced; which the model would not indicate at this range. So in short definitely a something to look at(at a high level) for that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 By the time the 850 temp retreats north of NC more than .25 liquid falls. This is a case of upper warm chasing the moisture. It's crazy even talking about the details so far out but that's what it looks like to me. Also with that setup the CAD would be more pronounced; which the model would not indicate at this range. So in short definitely a something to look at(at a high level) for that time range. If there was a 50/50 low, it would be a slam dunk snow event. However there is not one. We will have to rely on timing, the location of the PV, and the strength/position of the high to the north. It's too complicated to even try to get a solution at this point. As FallsLake pointed out, this is just a high level view right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 If there was a 50/50 low, it would be a slam dunk snow event. However there is not one. We will have to rely on timing, the location of the PV, and the strength/position of the high to the north. It's too complicated to even try to get a solution at this point. As FallsLake pointed out, this is just a high level view right now.I think the good 2010 storm(jan)? was a perfect timing. A cold shot came in sat, and the storm came in Sunday , and gave a lot of people a good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I don't want to be a party pooper, but when I looked at the NCEP maps for the 18z GFS, It looked more like an ice to rain scenario. I don't necessarily believe it, but that's just what it looked like to me. TW Yeah, definitely not a clean snow event. PV rotates around and HP slides out. Fortunately, it's cold and it looks like the majority of the precip would be frozen for many areas, if the HP to the north is there. No 50/50, like others have said, so great timing it will take, but that's not at all unusual here. The big take-away is the broad agreement of a much better pattern in the heart of winter, with cold air on our side of the world, for a change, and general storminess. It's hard to ever lock in a winter storm, but the upcoming pattern should provide some excitement, if it actually comes to fruition and doesn't turn out to be greatly muted by the time it actually arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'll say this again, why are people looking at the 10+ day GFS? This really needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'll say this again, why are people looking at the 10+ day GFS? This really needs to stop. We used to laugh at people that posted it. I won't even mention how clown maps were viewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'll say this again, why are people looking at the 10+ day GFS? This really needs to stop. I posted a prior-to-truncation map for you in the December thread. What more do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I posted a prior-to-truncation map for you in the December thread. What more do you want? I want people to wait until 3-4 days before the event before they start posting accumulation and temperature maps. The only thing you can nail down at 10 days (if you can even do that with anything) is the general pattern. We've gotten enough consistency with the major models that it's safe to say we're looking at a colder pattern for the last part of December and the beginning of January. Beyond that, it's a crap chute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I remember reading a FB post from Robert this morning, where he mentioned it looked like a 50/50 and would give snow to all areas including Ga and us upstate folks. Not sure where he was seeing it but I usually put a lot of stock into what he is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I want people to wait until 3-4 days before the event before they start posting accumulation and temperature maps. The only thing you can nail down at 10 days (if you can even do that with anything) is the general pattern. We've gotten enough consistency with the major models that it's safe to say we're looking at a colder pattern for the last part of December and the beginning of January. Beyond that, it's a crap chute. Is a crap chute similar to a laundry chute, just with rivers of crap as opposed to laundry? I want no part of a crap chute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Is a crap chute similar to a laundry chute, just with rivers of crap as opposed to laundry? I want no part of a crap chute... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/108-h2o/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Not midlands SC tho? I remember reading a FB post from Robert this morning, where he mentioned it looked like a 50/50 and would give snow to all areas including Ga and us upstate folks. Not sure where he was seeing it but I usually put a lot of stock into what he is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 DT's January forecast maps: 1.gif 2.gif It looks like he was eating a plate of spaghetti when he made that map there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 53% of US covered in snow last weekend...highest this early in a decade. http://m.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/half-the-us-is-already-covered-with-snow/2013/12/20/84203c36-682d-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_print.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 It looks like he was eating a plate of spaghetti when he made that map there. I'm not that omnivorant - just sharing what's out there! Merry Christmas!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.