dsaur Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Lol I just saw that. I've been telling you for weeks, and weeks! Why are you laughing? Who gets the date of the 1st named storm every year? Let's give me some respect, if you please It's coming...just have to get past Wed. and the signs will be propitious. Sleet for me, and a flurry for you, and Cory, lol. After 5.7 inches of rain, the door to the possible is wide open. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Analogs on the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Here's the temps from 9 out of those 10 analog dates (couldn't find 1956) for KCLT 12/18/85 Low 24.1 High 54.0 1/16/09 Low 12.0 High 45.012/17/88 Low 28.9 High 46.012/23/60 Low 17.1 High 35.112/29/63 Low 32.0 High 45.0 1/14/65 Low 28.9 High 48.9 1/21/61 Low 26.1 High 37.912/23/99 Low 37.4 High 51.112/29/93 Low 30.9 High 33.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Any word on the Euro? Does it line up with the other models at showing some New Years potential? Looks like we are pretty sure that the colder pattern is coming. Now we need to reel one in. I'm ready for some Burger play-by-play with these Euro runs! BOOM!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Analogs on the 0z euro. 2009 is below. 1985 brought a widespread 2-4" on Jan. 28th. No map for it. Below is 1988. This rounds out the top 3 analogs in relation to the year and January only. You posted maps from the wrong winters... That's December of '85 analog and you referred to Jan of '85. Also you posted a map from Jan of '88 when the analog is December of '88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I put this in the TN forum, but this storm was so widespread I needed to post this here too: In mid Dec of 1987 the Tennessee valley was raked with severe storms and tornados. This was followed by a storm around Christmas that caused flooding. This is similar to what just happened with the current set of events in the past week. Following this............One of the most widespread winter events I can find for the state of TN happened on January 6-8th of 1988. It is one of the few west to east storms that I can remember where the entire state of TN was projected to receive 6+ inches of snow and the entire state was under a winter storm warning. Memphis and Nashville areas received 8 inches officially, Chattanooga received 10 inches, Asheville NC received 11 inches, Greenville SC 11 inches, Huntsville had 10 inches, Knoxville had 7 inches, and so on and so forth. Temperatures were in the teens and 20's during the snow for most areas and at one point, much of the states of Georgia and SC were reporting either sleet, snow, or freezing rain. Here's to hoping history repeats itself. Since we have just been through the severe weather and flooding, I am ready for the SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Any word on the Euro? Does it line up with the other models at showing some New Years potential? Looks like we are pretty sure that the colder pattern is coming. Now we need to reel one in. I'm ready for some Burger play-by-play with these Euro runs! BOOM!!!! Looks quite cold around the 31st on the Euro. But dry as well, with a clipper to our north with nice lake effect snow. Of course its at 192 hours FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Franklin, where's our Euro ens teaser? Crappy run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Franklin, where's our Euro ens teaser? Crappy run?no they show a pretty much el nino like pattern. Aleutian low, positive pna, negative ao, southern stream low heights in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Franklin, where's our Euro ens teaser? Crappy run? It was fine, the control run was different than the ENS mean, had a +AO after day 10 and thus had a big cutter, so tossing that. I won't have precip output for the mean until later tonight. Hopefully GaWx reports on the weeklies soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thanks guys. Sounds pretty good. Finally seems like a legit window opening up. Who knows how long it will last, but hopefully it'll provide an opportunity ot two to track a storm within the T-5 day time frame. Good to be happening during the heart of winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Last nights Euro ENS control run was unbelievably cold. We're talking sub 500 thicknesses into most of TN and into WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The beginning of January is looking very promising for at least a chance of wintry weather in the southeast. I have been watching a couple of things on the models for early January. First is the powerful cold front scheduled to pass in late December. The EURO and GFS are very much similar with the front passing and delivering very cold air for the beginning of the New Year. Temperatures at the 850 mb level are around -10 Celsius on the models, so this is a major cool down. Both the GFS and EURO then have a storm sitting of the coast of California or near Mexico. I have posted the following graphic from Penn State Meteorology Program, the PSU E-Wall. What you can see is the disturbance sitting on the coast on the EURO, while the GFS has it modeled to be cut off over the Pacific Ocean off the California coast. These differences will be worked out over time. This may provide us with the opportunity to receive a chance at a winter storm, if either the GFS or EURO solution verifies. Personally, the EURO solution would be more desirable. The only problem is the EURO stalls the area of low pressure over the southern California area, which is one of its biases. I believe that there is a chance that this storm ejects a little quicker than what it is modeled on the EURO and GFS. If this is to happen, lets say near the first or second, we could see a very legitimate shot at a winter storm. Second, lets say the storm ejects later, similar to what is shown on the models currently. We would still have a good chance of seeing a winter storm. We would probably just need another shot of cold air at some point. No matter what, a negative AO pattern appears to be developing, which may help pave the way for us to receive a winter storm in the near year. This will be something very interesting to track and watch over the next few days. We finally have something postiive, or negative if you prefer (-AO), here in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Highs in the teens for almost all of NC(save for the far SE corner of the state) with highs almost for sure in the single digits in Asheville and Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Looks really cold for the beginning of the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Nice write up Jordan! You should make a video for the upcoming pattern change. It would be highly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Last nights Euro ENS control run was unbelievably cold. We're talking sub 500 thicknesses into most of TN and into WNC. Has that ever happened on record? Jan 85 was the closest I've ever known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 KGSP Weekly Briefing December 23 - 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Highs in the teens for almost all of NC(save for the far SE corner of the state) with highs almost for sure in the single digits in Asheville and Boone. Couple runs of the GFS was showing this, too. It's been a while experiencing a sub-20 degree day. Feb '96 is the last one I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Has that ever happened on record? Jan 85 was the closest I've ever known. Some of the lowest I can remember was after the 2003 snowstorm when we had some 510 thicknesses come through. Also forgot that a wave forms on the arctic front and brings a snowstorm from I-10 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Roberts update on this upcoming pattern doesn't seem to show a whole lot of enthusiasm. He says much of the real cold air stays just north of the Southeast. Says a repeat of Nov pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Roberts update on this upcoming pattern doesn't seem to show a whole lot of enthusiasm. He says much of the real cold air stays just north of the Southeast. Says a repeat of Nov pattern. That's not how I read it, he did say it might not get cold enough for deep SE but overall it sounded positive to me. Your spot looks as good as any, but his map looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 And DT takes on The Weather Channel: DTVaWeatherman (@DTVaWeatherman) 12/23/13, 16:45 The AO is tanking and The IDIOTS at TWC are forecasting a blow torch JAN 2014. This is Just 100% inept forecasting pic.twitter.com/ZicLTTO4Kz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Nice write up Jordan! You should make a video for the upcoming pattern change. It would be highly interesting. I will try to make a video at some point. I may wait till after Christmas just to see if the models begin to converge on a solution, because I do believe an interesting pattern may be beginning in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 And DT takes on The Weather Channel:DTVaWeatherman (@DTVaWeatherman) 12/23/13, 16:45 The AO is tanking and The IDIOTS at TWC are forecasting a blow torch JAN 2014. This is Just 100% inept forecasting pic.twitter.com/ZicLTTO4Kz[/quote How does he know they won't end up being right...all we know is the the first week or so of Jan will be below normal, the last 2 weeks could torch bad TWC could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 That's not how I read it, he did say it might not get cold enough for deep SE but overall it sounded positive to me. Your spot looks as good as any, but his map looks good. I agree, I was readying Roberts comments, and I felt like he was saying the extreme cold air is what he was not buying. I believe he does think there is at least a chance of a winter storm at some point. I posted, in the January forum, about the upcoming pattern and why I believe we need to watch for a chance of a winter storm around the beginning of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Looks really cold for the beginning of the new year. Yes it does. Let's just hope the indices continue to trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 And DT takes on The Weather Channel: DTVaWeatherman (@DTVaWeatherman) 12/23/13, 16:45 The AO is tanking and The IDIOTS at TWC are forecasting a blow torch JAN 2014. This is Just 100% inept forecasting pic.twitter.com/ZicLTTO4Kz TWC just like NOAA have an agenda. They are part of the global warming crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 DT's January forecast maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Wilkes is DT, DT is Wilkes - based on these map renderings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.