nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thanks to Steve and others for the great analysis. It is appreciated and is the type of interaction we professional people come to our board for. As far as the next arctic blast, we will have to wait to see if the SE ridge is displaced with this one. Things are looking more favorable so hoping for the best. As far as JB, his December forecast nationwide pretty much scored an ace. It's tough work and yes he makes his living off of commerical energy clients. The Accuweather winter forecast has also been spot on so far this year. I hope the Accuweather forecast does not hold through mid January, as if it does, we are skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 No, it's not a slam dunk, it can create a chaotic PV pattern that may take some time to settle down. But... if you have a very strong and persistent PV, the SSW can be one way to change that pattern. Where the pieces end up falling is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I see we still have the Jan.3rd potential. Another plus is that the CPC has removed the drought development for much of NC north of Charlotte in the seasonal outlook. Another downside is that they have above normal temps for the Jan-Feb-March period in western NC. If anyone has noticed, this stormy pattern we have been in keeps occurring on the weekend. Absolute washout in some areas or small winter weather events if you go back even further in western or northern NC. Maybe the winter weather threat next weekend has some merit based on this pattern, and maybe more so since we have some cooler air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 06z 2m temps are coldest yet in the last frame. -48 in Eastern Canada? I'll take it! Minimums: Atlanta - 12 RDU - 11 Tri-Cities, TN - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Based on longterm climo as well as a higher tendency toward CAD in recent weeks, I do think that we have a higher than average major ZR threat for this winter. I say that because we're now barely into the neutral negative ENSO phase. My study of major ZR's in the ATL area has shown that the neutral negative ENSO phase has been the most common ENSO phase by a sig. margin. We'll see. The overall pattern does suggest at least an interesting pattern in early Jan. as far as watching for a possible wintry precip. threat of note for a good portion of the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If we can just keep this pattern going of having the storms every weekend and get the cold in here, we'll be in business. It has been wet on the weekends for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Rainfall from yesterday for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 So the GFS, European and Canadian all show -NAO, +PNA, and -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Can there be a rule that we ban the 394 hour GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Jan 2-4 still looks like a viable threat, at least as viable as a threat can be at this distance. The day 5 GFS 500 MB map shows ur system slowly approaching CA while blocking is beginning to take shape over the arctic. It's going to take at least another 5 days or more to get that system to the east coast...if it survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If we can just keep this pattern going of having the storms every weekend and get the cold in here, we'll be in business. It has been wet on the weekends for the past month. Actually it ends this weekend suppose to be dry. Maybe it just wants a weekend off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Can there be a rule that we ban the 394 hour GFS? It doesn't go out to 394. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Great Graphic on March temps! Thanks Dacula! Really shows what happened when the pattern flipped and the cold set in. Apparently, to many folks, if it does not lead to snow in their BY it does not matter. Nearly as if it did not happen. Also, as others have mentioned, when SSW does occur, my understanding is that it is not a slam dunk for us to get cold. As I understand it, there is always the chance that the vortex slides to the other side of he pole. It is beginning to look as if we may have all of our ducks lining up for us as we end the year and head into January. As usual, I doubt some will believe it until they see snow on the ground. I think could be the most favorable setup we have seen since winter 10-11. Let's hope it produces some great winter weather for the entire SE! I've seen great patterns, with great cold, give me squat..... and bad patterns, with marginal cool, produce great storms. Nothing is written in the south, not Ga. anyway. Just have to wait and see, just like every year And as one gets older, if one is lucky, it is possible to have the same great expectations every winter, afresh, and yet not expire when they aren't realized It can lead to baldness, however, and ground down teeth T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Can there be a rule that we ban the 394 hour GFS? It only goes out to 384, in other words within a very forecastable range. Thank goodness because I would never pay attention past 384 hours. 394 would be insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 12z GFS is a beautiful sight for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'll take my chances...by day 11 the surface low is in the FL Panhandle and temps look too warm across the SE...but again, I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It doesn't go out to 394.Then my job here is done. But seriously, I don't think posting these extremely long-range images contributes anything to the forum. They have no skill and just create unnecessary weenie-ism, which this board already has too much of. At least keep it inside of 240 where we can compare with the Euro and the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Snow in Wayburg at 183hr. Somebody wake up MetalMan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Then my job here is done. But seriously, I don't think posting these extremely long-range images contributes anything to the forum. They have no skill and just create unnecessary weenie-ism, which this board already has too much of. At least keep it inside of 240 where we can compare with the Euro and the Canadian. For the GFS and Euro, 240 sounds reasonable. I recommend to keep it inside of 24 hours for the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 12z looks good going into early Jan. Just need it cooler which we can work out in the next 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It doesn't go out to 394.Then my job here is done.But seriously, I don't think posting these extremely long-range images contributes anything to the forum. They have no skill and just create unnecessary weenie-ism, which this board already has too much of. At least keep it inside of 240 where we can compare with the Euro and the Canadian. I figured it was harmless due to its just temps and the cold is a major factor for the pattern change, at least it's not a snow or fantasy storm map outside 300. To me it's the same as posting an 500mb/temp anomaly map 240+, but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Snow in Wayburg at 183hr. Somebody wake up MetalMan. Lol I just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Cmc is looking interesting at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Cmc is looking interesting at 174 You are the king of "intrigue"........lol Please expound on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 12z GFS is a beautiful sight for early January. Indeed and it matches up extremely well with teleconnections around Jan 1 with the NAO really tanking. those storms coming in across the south and spinning up is exactly what the doctor ordered. Euro will be interesting today for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 With the teleconnections starting to favor some winter weather...it is time for the EURO to show its stuff this week. I would be shocked if we went past Jan 10th without a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 With the teleconnections starting to favor some winter weather...it is time for the EURO to show its stuff this week. I would be shocked if we went past Jan 10th without a storm to track.Suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Suppression city. That's okay this far out. Would suck to see something then it be suppressed 4 days out. Would rather see it suppressed then trend north over the next 8-16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 You are the king of "intrigue"........lol Please expound on the CMCit looked like it was going to phase a system. After I got to look past 174 it does not amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 For Widre: Should be mostly sunny conditions with seasonable temps. Doesn't look too breezy either. A very nice December day. Hopefully, all the hundreds of weenies won't come out of the woodwork and increase the page count 5x like they've been doing every day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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