dsaur Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 No thunder and not the first drop of rain so far here The portals are holding strong It's coming, and not just "Tony's storm", lol. This line is oozing like the cold air a while back, and it's a great rain train. Sooner or later it will sag down to you. Just like the cold air and the moisture after Christmas day through the first 10 days of Jan. Big cold highs and gulf lows. It's all on the platter now the moles are back. Good times coming, even to the portals, though that's a particularly tough one, lol. I'm at 3.6 and still on the southern fringe of the track. Tony PS....that's new..lightening with the thunder now, and pouring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It sounds like he thinks the AO will be most positive in early-mid January, and then will break down, reaching it's most wintry form in early-mid February. Unsure what to make of that post (since deleted), friends from across the pond attempting to score a Nov-Dec verification win while citing planetary tropo waves. Honestly, big verbiage for everything above the surface to 60K'. H5, ~16.4K', lowest heights in this hemisphere are on our side of the pole and will likely consolidate ivo the Hudson Bay days 7-10, maybe a push south of there should ridging start to work into eastern Greenland. AO is tanking as we speak, NAO on the other hand makes a run towards neutral not sure it gets there. Without this there is nothing to lock the vortex into central/eastern Canada, similar to what we are seeing now, a piece breaks off and heads towards Scandinavia. 18z GFS Ensemble and 12z Euro Ensemble show stable -EPO and -AO pattern with central & eastern U.S. trough from days 8-16, with wintry precip threat in Jan 1-3 timeframe Certainly the EC's best look thus far, days 8-16. Two systems, which we will be far removed from, ~ day 6 & 10 cutting up through the Labrador Sea, these may aid in pinching off the PV in Canada, not allowing it to escape as we are seeing right now. Still, a very unstable NH picture in the upper latitudes, expect model correlation to be below avg. There is going to be a very sharp boundary, as DS mentioned, the gulf coast states, FL in particular the cold could be absent. Battle ground sets up middle MS River Valley through the Carolinas. Potential for a big storm or two in the next 3 weeks is there with an active STJ, and northern stream energy coming down as parcels cheerio around the PV. Best guess of a big one (could be a interior MA type deal) is around day 10, once all these changes to our north are realized at the mid latitudes, all comes down to timing. We will likely be tracking something by Christmas, concerned that the overall setup may not last long (2-3 weeks), given climo though, this is about as good a time as any to carve out the EC trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 WeatherNC, it's not deleted. It's the second to last post made by Ricardo. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 GFS still has gulf low in early jan with NAO going negative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Also snow flurries flying possible on Christmas day in southern apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yeah, my latest forecast for Christmas day is highs in the 40's lows in the mid 20's, and that's a far cry from just yesterday...so flurries on Wed wouldn't surprise me after all the torch talk, and a good New Years storm is due again. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If I read that correctly, Riccardo is saying we will only have 2 polar outbreaks this winter. One of which has already happened and one that will happen in February? And his magic formula told him this because of the weather pattern in October??? My only question is, if we have a polar outbreak as the GFS and other models seem to be predicting around the January 1 time frame, does that mean his formula is a bust? Welcome back Mark! Long time no see! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 So the possible storm ~10-12 days out is going to be partly as a result of what happens to that upper low along the CA coast after it slowly slides east under that building ridge. It's going to be a painfully long wait to see how all of this is resolved. By day 10 the EURO has the upper low and attending surface low over Kansas/OK/TX panhandle with a trough in place over the east coast and strong surface HP sliding down from Canada. Altogether it's not a bad set-up, but its a loooong way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Tweet from Joe Bastardi: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/415088357194997760 Major Stratwarm developing. Dec willl wind up coldest since 2000 US, Jan likely coldest since 1994. NG surging! http://t.co/INt69Gt3q2 And where? We have been down this last grab straw on Stratospheric Warming several times before. Hope it means something this time. Running AC in December just is not right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Tweet from Joe Bastardi: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/415088357194997760 Major Stratwarm developing. Dec willl wind up coldest since 2000 US, Jan likely coldest since 1994. NG surging! http://t.co/INt69Gt3q2 And where? We have been down this last grab straw on Stratospheric Warming several times before. Hope it means something this time. Running AC in December just is not right! :lmao: Yep, this was supposed to happen at this exact time last year and people were saying the effects would come 3-4 weeks later and that we would have historic cold last year. Not sure why JB makes such bizarre predictions. Coldest since 1994? Doubt it? January 2010 was pretty cool. Would be hilarious if we end January like this. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Jan06TDeptUS.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 :lmao: Yep, this was supposed to happen at this exact time last year and people were saying the effects would come 3-4 weeks later and that we would have historic cold last year. Not sure why JB makes such bizarre predictions. Coldest since 1994? Doubt it? January 2010 was pretty cool. Would be hilarious if we end January like this. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Jan06TDeptUS.png Not sure where you were last year but it did happen and led to late winter/spring blocking. We even had low temps below freezing at the end of May, plenty of spring snow too. You can go back to the mtn snow thread last year and see my pics and reports. As far as the pattern, the GEFS and the Euro ensembles show an el-nino like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Not sure where you were last year but it did happen and led to late winter/spring blocking. We even had low temps below freezing at the end of May, plenty of spring snow too. You can go back to the mtn snow thread last year and see my pics and reports. As far as the pattern, the GEFS and the Euro ensembles show an el-nino like pattern. I'm not sure that was a result of the SSW. They said the SSW would take 3-4 weeks to take effect which would have put us at the end of January where CFS and other folks were honking about historic cold. I'll try to go find it and post it in the banter thread. It snowed in my backyard in March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm not sure that was a result of the SSW. They said the SSW would take 3-4 weeks to take effect which would have put us at the end of January where CFS and other folks were honking about historic cold. I'll try to go find it and post it in the banter thread. It snowed in my backyard in March as well. I think it happened the past two years but the PV ended up on the wrong side of the hemisphere so it did not help us at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm not sure that was a result of the SSW. They said the SSW would take 3-4 weeks to take effect which would have put us at the end of January where CFS and other folks were honking about historic cold. I'll try to go find it and post it in the banter thread. It snowed in my backyard in March as well. I agree with MetalMan. The supposed SSW related 3-4 week cold never materialized. The biggest cold waited til well afterward. JB is a cold hype machine IMO. Also, I recall saying I didn't think it was sharp enough warming vs. historical SSW's to even count as a SSW at the time, but that was my opinion. Also, readers need to remember that JB typically concentrates on the NE US over the SE. Did he call for the record SE warmth recently being experienced? That's an honest question. Based on his tweets, I don't recall it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think it happened the past two years but the PV ended up on the wrong side of the hemisphere so it did not help us at all. That is correct. It went to the other side of the poll last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Man, teleconnections are looking real good this morning. If these trends hold out, we're going to be in real good shape. Both the NAO and AO are showing negative tendencies around Jan 1, with the PNA neutral to positive, and the WPO/EPO going negative again. This is the best I've seen these indices match up an a long time, at least in the winter. Last February and March were the last time the AO and NAO were both negative in the same month, and this is what the temperature outcome was: mar_13.jpg Here are the departures from normal for last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 That is correct. It went to the other side of the poll last 2 years. I thought so. This is why Europe had some horrendous winter weather the last two years. This year is different as the cold is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I respectfully disagree with a little of this. We had a Strat warm up toward the end of January, once blocking was established, look how it ended up. Don't count out a SSW, A good one can send the PV into pieces. Last winter March 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I thought so. This is why Europe had some horrendous winter weather the last two years. This year is different as the cold is on our side.Hmm.. Interesting. Maybe we get the PV on our side this year, when/if the SSW takes place. Teleconnections have updated. +PNA √ -AO √ -NAO??? -EPO√ -WPO√ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Steve, Can you post the Feb, April, and May temp departures as well? I bumped the mtn snow thread from last year so folks can see winter was in full force in March and April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Hmm.. Interesting. Maybe we get the PV on our side this year, when/if the SSW takes place. Teleconnections have updated. +PNA √ -AO √ -NAO??? -EPO√ -WPO√ Ya we have already seen one arctic blast this year which is good and it looks like we may see another one soon with the PV on our side which we did not have the last couple of years. I was just going to comment on the teleconnections saying they keep trending very favorable as we head towards the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Steve, Can you post the Feb, April, and May temp departures as well? I bumped the mtn snow thread from last year so folks can see winter was in full force in March and April! Yes it was. March was by far our best snow month last year here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I have them here on my site: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_graphical_cag.php Feb Mar Apr May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Nice Steve. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thanks Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I found this posted last year as well. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40232-remembering-the-nc-high-country-winter-of-20122013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Hmm.. Interesting. Maybe we get the PV on our side this year, when/if the SSW takes place. Teleconnections have updated. +PNA √ -AO √ -NAO??? -EPO√ -WPO√ NAO is looking promising on todays run. looks like more runs are negative than positive in the LR. PNA has most runs positive and the AO has almost all runs negative (very negative). Overall it is looking like we are going into a good pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Great Graphic on March temps! Thanks Dacula! Really shows what happened when the pattern flipped and the cold set in. Apparently, to many folks, if it does not lead to snow in their BY it does not matter. Nearly as if it did not happen. Also, as others have mentioned, when SSW does occur, my understanding is that it is not a slam dunk for us to get cold. As I understand it, there is always the chance that the vortex slides to the other side of he pole. It is beginning to look as if we may have all of our ducks lining up for us as we end the year and head into January. As usual, I doubt some will believe it until they see snow on the ground. I think could be the most favorable setup we have seen since winter 10-11. Let's hope it produces some great winter weather for the entire SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I agree with MetalMan. The supposed SSW related 3-4 week cold never materialized. The biggest cold waited til well afterward. JB is a cold hype machine IMO. Also, I recall saying I didn't think it was sharp enough warming vs. historical SSW's to even count as a SSW at the time, but that was my opinion. Also, readers need to remember that JB typically concentrates on the NE US over the SE. Did he call for the record SE warmth recently being experienced? That's an honest question. Based on his tweets, I don't recall it. Yes, he did. He called for the warmth on the east coast even up into New England. Here was is Dec forecast by the way. Looks pretty good to me. AS far as his base I'm sure that's his commercial energy clients. Not some mid Atlantic weenies with a few bucks in their pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Finally seeing some actual potential here with the prospect of real blocking setting up over the pole. If we do have another significant SSW event this January, it looks to benefit us unlike last year when the SSW occured, all the cold was on the other side of the world. Now for a little fun 6z GFS 384 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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