burgertime Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 12z doesn't look bad at all after 192. In fact it gives the Carolinas a few chances at some snowfall even as early as 10 days away. It will change of course but with the indices moving into more positive areas or us with the PNA and AO we got a good chance. So let's enjoy the tropics today and await the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Regardless of how "promising" a pattern seems to be (and it definitely does look more interesting), the key is for people to keep their expectations in check and realistic so as to keep disappointments under control. Always remember we're in the SE US and that wintry events are the exception, not the rule (especially for those south of NC). Know thy climatology! The constant complaining about something that isn't under our control and is largely random/fairly rare gets old, especially when there's much more to life than wx. Also, there has been rare wintry wx in many areas already this season. Yet, there's still been a lot of complaining. Furthermore, rainfall has been plentiful overall of late. That in itself is good if one doesn't want drought. even in Georgia, we should expect snow in January. Even if it's just a dusting or flurries in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 even in Georgia, we should expect snow in January. Even if it's just a dusting or flurries in the air. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 even in Georgia, we should expect snow in January. Even if it's just a dusting or flurries in the air. That's more reasonable for N GA. But, of course, some Jan.'s in N Ga are shutouts. But at least these expectations aren't out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 That's more reasonable for N GA. But, of course, some Jan.'s in N Ga are shutouts. But at least these expectations aren't out of control. Back in the old days, you could expect at least a stray flake or two in the air every January. I'm not asking for a monster gigantic snowstorm ( even though i would love one). Is it really that hard to even get flurries down here? I haven't even seen snow falling from the sky in three years. Have we become Florida ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 12z doesn't look bad at all after 192. In fact it gives the Carolinas a few chances at some snowfall even as early as 10 days away. It will change of course but with the indices moving into more positive areas or us with the PNA and AO we got a good chance. So let's enjoy the tropics today and await the cold. No it doesn't! Looks pretty darn good, in fact. It certainly favors eastern US cold, and as you said, several opportunities for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It's coming. A big honkin' storm of storms!! Even some flakes for Carrollton, and Waygone, but for those long suffering souls beyond the edge of the earth south of I 20 heaping mounds of sleet. Oh, happy days... I've had me a vision..and, yes, I think the Moles are near. I'm getting rain like it used to fall. I only hit 71/72 yesterday..the day of the torch... Christmas looks to be below freezing both nights. So far the predictors and the models have been off a bit. Winter only just started..sure I had the fan on last night, but that happens every year. This ain't no torch except for Waygone, Savannah, and up by the portals, where the hell breezes blow, and that brave, brave Michelle hangs out. And I've got rain.. .3 more in the last hour....and that's all the sign I need to see going into the week after Xmas when the curtains rise. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 More than an 1" here today, my high was at midnight but I near hit 70. More rain coming before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 We officially reached 80 in Florence, SC...ready for this cool down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Gefs have a nice -ao thru the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Guys read the last post of this thread and say what you think. Not sure how to read that. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 2 inches of rain since it started this morning, had this been snow we would be around 20 inches and still snowing. White Christmas for sure for a lot of us: if we could get some cold to come at the right time. Still hoping around the first of the year we have some fun and games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Guys read the last post of this thread and say what you think. Not sure how to read that. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2 If I read that correctly, Riccardo is saying we will only have 2 polar outbreaks this winter. One of which has already happened and one that will happen in February? And his magic formula told him this because of the weather pattern in October??? My only question is, if we have a polar outbreak as the GFS and other models seem to be predicting around the January 1 time frame, does that mean his formula is a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 If I read that correctly, Riccardo is saying we will only have 2 polar outbreaks this winter. One of which has already happened and one that will happen in February? And his magic formula told him this because of the weather pattern in October??? My only question is, if we have a polar outbreak as the GFS and other models seem to be predicting around the January 1 time frame, does that mean his formula is a bust? Was just about to edit my post to say I understood it now. The interesting thing though is that his OPI so far has been extremely accurate. Also the first polar outbreak, which he predicted and was basically right on, most on here saw snow and KATL picked up 0.4. If his idea is correct, February should be great. Also to answer your question, it will probably depend on the magnitude of the cold. If it is a significant polar outbreak, then his idea fails, if it's just slightly below normal temps, then it is still good for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro ensembles look sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro ensembles look sweet!! Loving your brief ensemble updates Franklin..... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Guys read the last post of this thread and say what you think. Not sure how to read that. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/page-2 It sounds like he thinks the AO will be most positive in early-mid January, and then will break down, reaching it's most wintry form in early-mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Good ole JB says would not be surprised if one to two major winter storms hit from Texas to east coast including down into the Carolinas. One before Jan 15. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Good ole JB says would not be surprised if one to two major winter storms hit from Texas to east coast including down into the Carolinas. One before Jan 15. We shall see OK I'll take it.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Good ole JB says would not be surprised if one to two major winter storms hit from Texas to east coast including down into the Carolinas. One before Jan 15. We shall see Not a bad call.......if the proposed pattern change does indeed happen. I believe it's slightly better than 50/50 at this point. Signals are pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yea his video says several shots. Said models are having a real hard time including euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Man, oh, man the goodness just piles up. I've got thunder, I've got 2.6 inches of rain, and it's still pouring, and winter's only just started. Not more than a few months ago the great guessers of the future said we'd be below norms in rain, and above in cold...and it's wrong, wrong, wrong so far. At least in my yard. The future is wide open and whatever is coming, is coming hard like the rains in the used to be "cursed lands", now officially the "kind of blessed lands" I'm telling you this is my predictor for weather ahead.... when the rains pour in winter good times are upon us. I think the old sayings goes "thunder near Christmas, super cold in the isthmus". And that's the isthmus of panama, which from my excellent geographic skills I place in between PC and Pensacola!! I don't know why they don't call it the Isthmus of Destin, but there you go. Happy times. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 18z GFS looks to keep the cold train coming. I believe I see a New years fantasy storm on there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 18z GFS continues to beat down the PV as blocking finally makes its way over Santa's workshop during this Christmas week. This blocking features maintains itself throughout the entire run. January is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Where's brick? I am looking for his insight ?! I think the fantasy storm looks to form on the arctic front as it makes it to the gulf. That would be great because cold would not be a problem. Looks like a jammin January may be on tap!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 18z GFS looks to keep the cold train coming. I believe I see a New years fantasy storm on there as well. A New Years Eve /Day storm would be great. I can dream and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Man, oh, man the goodness just piles up. I've got thunder, I've got 2.6 inches of rain, and it's still pouring, and winter's only just started. Not more than a few months ago the great guessers of the future said we'd be below norms in rain, and above in cold...and it's wrong, wrong, wrong so far. At least in my yard. The future is wide open and whatever is coming, is coming hard like the rains in the used to be "cursed lands", now officially the "kind of blessed lands" I'm telling you this is my predictor for weather ahead.... when the rains pour in winter good times are upon us. I think the old sayings goes "thunder near Christmas, super cold in the isthmus". And that's the isthmus of panama, which from my excellent geographic skills I place in between PC and Pensacola!! I don't know why they don't call it the Isthmus of Destin, but there you go. Happy times. T No thunder and not the first drop of rain so far here The portals are holding strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 No thunder and not the first drop of rain so far here The portals are holding strong You aren't the only one. Just sitting down here cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 My only question is, if we have a polar outbreak as the GFS and other models seem to be predicting around the January 1 time frame, does that mean his formula is a bust?Actually looking at it again, it sort of hints at the Arctic Outbreak around the New Year. http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6809/16k2.png Notice the uptick in the tropospheric wave development activity towards the end of December. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Then you notice the AO taking a dive into the Negative territory. He also mentions a little about it. He said "About the future we believe that, after a very short stop (by first graph around end of December), the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (VPT) will reach again a new important compactness during January (especially the first half). In this way the mean quarterly AO would be very high and close to the value expected by the OPI (and also by the SAI)." So our upcoming negative AO is probably going to be short lived if he is correct. He nailed the polar outbreak at the end of November. The 500hpa geopotential anamoloies look very similar and he made forecast at the beginning of November. What is interesting is looking ahead at February. The tropospheric wave development activity says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 18z GFS Ensemble and 12z Euro Ensemble show stable -EPO and -AO pattern with central & eastern U.S. trough from days 8-16, with wintry precip threat in Jan 1-3 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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