Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[FallsLake]

GFS 18Z has come in astronomically warm for down here - min of 57 after 12/29 through 1/6.

 

Two things -

 

1) Unheard of, even down here; and

 

2) Makes no sense if the PV is splitting and NAO and/or AO are going negative.

 

I ask again - what the heck kind of cool aid is that model drinking; or are we really in for a real warm run?

definitely does not look good. It would depict a continuation of the current pattern with no real end in sight. looks great for folks in the mid section of the country.  

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

GFS 18Z has come in astronomically warm for down here - min of 57 after 12/29 through 1/6.

 

Two things -

 

1) Unheard of, even down here; and

 

2) Makes no sense if the PV is splitting and NAO and/or AO are going negative.

 

I ask again - what the heck kind of cool aid is that model drinking; or are we really in for a real warm run?

 

Correct, this will not be the final solution if we have a favorable Atlantic. I really just don't know what the GFS is doing. Is there an algorithm that blends persistence into the equation for the long range? It is strange.

[Jon]

GFS 18Z has come in astronomically warm for down here - min of 57 after 12/29 through 1/6.

 

Two things -

 

1) Unheard of, even down here; and

 

2) Makes no sense if the PV is splitting and NAO and/or AO are going negative.

 

I ask again - what the heck kind of cool aid is that model drinking; or are we really in for a real warm run?

I would advise not to drink even a sip of that tainted GFS cool-aid until the ensembles at least line up. In the past runs I've seen maybe a couple of members supporting that solution and maybe one single member supports a torch ridge, which screws the mean up completely. Does not compute.

[packbacker]

Correct, this will not be the final solution if we have a favorable Atlantic. I really just don't know what the GFS is doing. Is there an algorithm that blends persistence into the equation for the long range? It is strange.

18z ens look great, match up well with Euro. Hopefully next week at this time we are tracking something.

[pcbjr]

I would advise not to drink even a sip of that tainted GFS cool-aid until the ensembles at least line up.

 

To reiterate a post from much earlier today - I think it is electronic eggnog that model is sipping.

 

Let's just hope it wakes up with a mean hangover!

[dsaur]

As long as they keep showing gulf storms in Jan they can snort the eggnog if they want, lol.  I just want to see the gulf involved and worry about the cold later. It generally finds a way to be at least marginally cold in Jan., and marginally is all you need.  Then the true cold stuff can come down after the storm to freeze it down good T

[Wow]

Euro is supportive of real blocking in the Pacific and some sort of slightly positive but potentially heading negative NAO situation in the Atlantic. It's been consistent for several runs now. Regardless, it will be a cooler pattern in early January.

 

The support for the PV splitting and forcing the AO into neg territory is very consistent now. I'll take it.

[SN_Lover]

GFS 18Z has come in astronomically warm for down here - min of 57 after 12/29 through 1/6.

 

Two things -

 

1) Unheard of, even down here; and

 

2) Makes no sense if the PV is splitting and NAO and/or AO are going negative.

 

I ask again - what the heck kind of cool aid is that model drinking; or are we really in for a real warm run?

The temp anomalies look negative fwiw 

[pcbjr]

The temp anomalies look negative fwiw 

 

Not in the long run in the deep SE (unless I'm seeing red where there should be blue):

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Those maps are pure silliness ! Look at the 384 hr map and the nice little blue dot right over Charlotte - good times

[SN_Lover]

Not in the long run in the deep SE (unless I'm seeing red where there should be blue):

 

gfs_T2ma_namer_33.pn

 

gfs_T2ma_namer_42.pn

 

gfs_T2ma_namer_49.pn

i was looking at the ensemble run...

[pcbjr]

i was looking at the ensemble run...

 

Thought I was too - according to my "history" of Firefox, I was.

[pcbjr]

Those maps are pure silliness ! Look at the 384 hr map and the nice little blue dot right over Charlotte - good times

 

????

 

[metalicwx366]

????

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

Lol he was talking about in the 3 images you posted above. Also you posted the op above instead of the ensemble.

[pcbjr]

Lol he was talking about in the 3 images you posted above. Also you posted the op above instead of the ensemble.

 

I stand corrected, but still

 

 

 

[SN_Lover]

mass confusion tonight haha

[GaWx]

Yep, excluding FL and based on 850's, the 12Z GEFS for the 11-15 has the SE 0-2 below normal vs. the 5-8 above normal of the 12Z GFS and. vs. the +1 to -1 of the 6Z GEFS. This 0-2 below is the coldest of at least the last four GEFS for the 11-15. FL is 0 to +1 on the 12Z GEFS. Coldest in the country is a whopping -6 to -7 in the Great Lakes, reflecting a lack of blocking.

 

 The 0Z Sun GEFS for the 11-15 for the SE US is the coldest in the string with mainly -2 to -4 north of FL! The coldest days are -8 to -12 in much of the SE 1/3-6. Also, the 0Z GFS was the coldest op. in the 11-15 in a while with mainly 0 to +1.

 

Edit: A Miller A is suggested by the 0Z GEFS fwiw for 1/2-3 with 850's in the northern areas, especially NC and TN, suggesting the likelihood of snow and with either a wintry mix or cold rains suggested in many other inland areas.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

 The 0Z Sun GEFS for the 11-15 for the SE US is the coldest in the string with mainly -2 to -4 north of FL! The coldest days are -8 to -12 in much of the SE 1/3-6. Also, the 0Z GFS was the coldest op. in the 11-15 in a while with mainly 0 to +1.

 

Edit: A Miller A is suggested by the 0Z GEFS fwiw for 1/2-3 with 850's in the northern areas, especially NC and TN, suggesting the likelihood of snow and with either a wintry mix or cold rains suggested in many other inland areas.

 

06z GFS operational run is down right cold in the long range. I guess it came to its senses.

[FallsLake]

06z GFS operational run is down right cold in the long range. I guess it came to its senses.

Nice change! Lets see if the 12z keeps cold look. I was a little worried yesterday because the GFS has been doing better in the LR this past year. The change this morning now follows other models and makes me optimistic.  

[Wow]

Highs in the teens around here on Jan 4 per the 6z GFS. Haven't had one of those since Feb 1996.  Usually the case when you hold -20C 850mb temps throughout the day.  Would be pretty cool to see it again, snow or not.

 

[metalicwx366]

Teleconnections looking even better. - NAO/AO +PNA to start out the new year. AO looks to go strongly negative.

[FallsLake]

Teleconnections looking even better. - NAO/AO +PNA to start out the new year. AO looks to go strongly negative.

The best look I've seen in a long time. We could get all the indices in our favor. Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but do we want everything strongly in our favor. Would this just cause a depiction Wow showed above where we get cold that overwhelms everything? 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[franklin NCwx]

Ensembles continue the good look thru the run. They are even getting stronger with the blocking each run!

[tnweathernut]

Ensembles continue the good look thru the run. They are even getting stronger with the blocking each run!

I have noticed that too. We need to really start reeling it in though!

You have to wonder when we will have a true threat to track....?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weathertree4u]

Ensembles continue the good look thru the run. They are even getting stronger with the blocking each run!

 

Looks great; be careful what you wish for!

[Pilotwx]

The best look I've seen in a long time. We could get all the indices in our favor. Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but do we want everything strongly in our favor. Would this just cause a depiction Wow showed above where we get cold that overwhelms everything?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

That's been my biggest worry . But 2 things we have on our favor 1 cold like that doesn't happen that offen althought modeled often. 2 is we got the pineapple connection going bonkers this year

[metalicwx366]

The best look I've seen in a long time. We could get all the indices in our favor. Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but do we want everything strongly in our favor. Would this just cause a depiction Wow showed above where we get cold that overwhelms everything?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Haha probably. But we have had an active STJ so far.

[buckeyefan1]

I when don talks like this  

January 1-7, 2014 Thoughts:

Already, this morning record high temperatures had fallen in many cities in the eastern U.S. Cities included Atlanta, Baltimore, New York, Newark, and Philadelphia. Temperatures in that part of North America were running in the 60s and even 70s. However, if one looks ahead to the first week of January, a return of more winterlike conditions appears increasingly likely. 

 

The ensemble guidance have been suggesting a change in both the AO and PNA heading into the first week in January. Today's run shows the most decided signal yet for an AO- and PNA+ pattern. The EPO is forecast to remain predominantly negative. Nevertheless, given the PDO- and persistent AO+, some consideration has to be given to a more modest change in the indices.

 

 

The outcomes based on the forecast teleconnections and those shown on the GFS ensembles for 1/5/2014 0z are quite similar. As a result, my guess is that much of Canada, except for the extreme north and western portions will likely wind up colder than normal. A cold January looks increasingly likely across much of Canada, as well. Much of the CONUS will also wind up colder than normal with perhaps the coldest anomalies located somewhere near the Great Lakes region. Exceptions will be the western quarter of the U.S., particularly the Southwest and Pacific Northwest where warmer conditions appear likely. The Southeast and Gulf Coast may wind up close to normal with some warmer than normal anomalies, particularly across Florida where winter has been largely absent so far.

 

As an added bonus, the ensembles have consistently signaled the possibility of a storm that could develop somewhere in the Gulf region and then move off the coast of the Southeastern U.S./lower Mid-Atlantic. Storm tracks are low skill at this time, but the important point is that the cold might coincide with some storminess in parts of the eastern CONUS.

[GaWx]

The best look I've seen in a long time. We could get all the indices in our favor. Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but do we want everything strongly in our favor. Would this just cause a depiction Wow showed above where we get cold that overwhelms everything? 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 Regardless of how "promising" a pattern seems to be (and it definitely does look more interesting), the key is for people to keep their expectations in check and realistic so as to keep disappointments under control. Always remember we're in the SE US and that wintry events are the exception, not the rule (especially for those south of NC). Know thy climatology!

  The constant complaining about something that isn't under our control and is largely random/fairly rare gets old, especially when there's much more to life than wx. Also, there has been rare wintry wx in many areas already this season. Yet, there's still been a lot of complaining. Furthermore, rainfall has been plentiful overall of late. That in itself is good if one doesn't want drought.

[wncsnow]

 Regardless of how "promising" a pattern seems to be (and it definitely does look more interesting), the key is for people to keep their expectations in check and realistic so as to keep disappointments under control. Always remember we're in the SE US and that wintry events are the exception, not the rule (especially for those south of NC). Know thy climatology!

  The constant complaining about something that isn't under our control and is largely random/fairly rare gets old, especially when there's much more to life than wx. Also, there has been rare wintry wx in many areas already this season. Yet, there's still been a lot of complaining. Furthermore, rainfall has been plentiful overall of late. That in itself is good if one doesn't want drought.

 

If it doesn't rain again here for 2 months I wont complain, we are 3 inches above the record rainfall on the year and probably looking at 3-5 inches again from this storm. If it stays wet its setting up for a flood at some point which is worse than a drought for me since I live near a river.