burgertime Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z GFS flips in the LR back to a building -AO with the -WPO ridge penetrating the arctic circle and splitting the PV. I think a pattern change is coming guys. Hopefully this +AO regime is coming to an end finally. 00z GFS was a thing of beauty last night. Getting hard to look at these runs in a row now and dismiss it. 6z was almost there but just hangs back the cold. Typically cold fronts move and don't just stall out in the exact same spot once they get moving in the winter. 6z looks horrible in the LR but probably a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z GFS was a thing of beauty last night. Getting hard to look at these runs in a row now and dismiss it. 6z was almost there but just hangs back the cold. Typically cold fronts move and don't just stall out in the exact same spot once they get moving in the winter. 6z looks horrible in the LR but probably a hiccup. Anyone look at last night's Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Man, teleconnections are looking real good this morning. If these trends hold out, we're going to be in real good shape. Both the NAO and AO are showing negative tendencies around Jan 1, with the PNA neutral to positive, and the WPO/EPO going negative again. This is the best I've seen these indices match up an a long time, at least in the winter. Last February and March were the last time the AO and NAO were both negative in the same month, and this is what the temperature outcome was: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks for posting that steve. I remember in being cold at the end of last winter with a few snow events. 0z ensembles still look good. Ridge bridge over the pole continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The GSP discussion from last night says the Canadian and euro both have lows forming in the N Gulf and brings them up off the Atlantic coast. The GFS is dry. They do this around the Thursday time frame. They did not mention precip at all or p- types. Would it be cold enough to have a wintry threat IF this low materializes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The end of the 6Z looks pretty warm and wet (granted, it's past truncation). I hope this pattern does flip, and am wondering if it does, how long it will take the models to consistently catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Not sure what to think about the indices this morning. PNA - Looks neutral between all the runs in the LR. Maybe a little more positive. NAO - Looks mostly positive with a trend towards neutral in the LR. AO - Trending towards neutral and maybe even negative. It would be nice to get at least two of the above in our favor. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow the Teleconnections are looking better today. Can you say -NAO/-AO, +PNA, - WPO/EPO for the start of the new year? Keep the good trends coming. It doesn't matter how warm the winter is, it only takes one storm to give most their seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The end of the 6Z looks pretty warm and wet (granted, it's past truncation). I hope this pattern does flip, and am wondering if it does, how long it will take the models to consistently catch on. The 6z was very disappointing. It would be another setup like we are currently experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow the Teleconnections are looking better today. Can you say -NAO/-AO, +PNA, - WPO/EPO for the start of the new year? Keep the good trends coming. It doesn't matter how warm the winter is, it only takes one storm to give most their seasonal snowfall. I'm also very hopeful but also a little pessimistic. the 6z GFS this morning basically showed a continuation of the current pattern. As somebody stated in the past, don't bet against the current pattern when it comes to the LR. A week back it looked like Christmas would be the flip. That has got pushed back some. I would like to see the flip within 5-7 days before I really believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The end of the 6Z looks pretty warm and wet (granted, it's past truncation). I hope this pattern does flip, and am wondering if it does, how long it will take the models to consistently catch on. The 6z was very disappointing. It would be another setup like we are currently experiencing. The 6z op doesn't support the ensemble mean, at all. The op happened to have the ridge this run, throw it out...With the location of the PV on the mean, this thing isn't going to have a persistent SE ridge. 06z OP GFS 06z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 6z op doesn't support the ensemble mean, at all. The op happened to have the ridge this run, throw it out...With the location of the PV on the mean, this thing isn't going to have a persistent SE ridge. Agree, individual members are all over past d8 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html 0z euro ensembles were locked into a very cold east half of the country. And its a stable look and not progressive. Op runs are going to jump around quite a bit over the next 3-5 days. Long wave pattern changes are notoriously difficult on the long range ops. IMO- the ridge bridge is a very high probability. Not a classic pattern but definitely better than anything we've seen so far. Storm track will be very active and the southern stream seems to be pretty wide open. Just click through the individual 6z gfs members. It's the kitchen sink with storm track but every member points toward an active pattern that includes the SE. I still think it will be a bit messy but appears to be plenty of moisture and energy to work with along with some cold available. Any west track will have CAD in front from what I'm seeing. I'm rooting for you guys. If you cash in so do I. We need the storm track further south than its been. Signs are improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 6z was very disappointing. It would be another setup like we are currently experiencing. The 12 z gfs is similar to the 6 z in that the Bermuda/SE ridging won't let go. So, after a chilly to seasonable 6-10, the 11-16 is overall solidly warmer than normal. This looks like the Thu Euto weeklies. Christmas looks chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 12 z gfs is similar to the 6 z in that the Bermuda/SE ridging won't let go. So, after a chilly to seasonable 6-10, the 11-16 is overall solidly warmer than normal. This looks like the Thu Euto weeklies. Christmas looks chilly. . Hopefully the ridge is being overdone! All the models show some sort of a good looking PNA, and a split of the vortex. We just need the one in SE Canada to be a little more south and I think that would keep the ridge at bay. I think we don't need the ridge totally suppressed to get a decent winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 well to my untrained eye, the 12z was a step back colder than the 6z on the LR. I just think the goofy is just still trying to sort it out and is having a hard time in the LR. Have the 12z ensembles come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 12 z gfs is similar to the 6 z in that the Bermuda/SE ridging won't let go. So, after a chilly to seasonable 6-10, the 11-16 is overall solidly warmer than normal. This looks like the Thu Euto weeklies. Christmas looks chilly. I was going to say the same thing. I noticed this morning that some of the individual members of the 0z GFS ensembles had a similar look as the 06z op run. Now the 12z GFS OP has repeated the 06z look in the long range. I was only slightly hopeful for a better pattern anyway, so not much of a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z gfs ensembles do not support the OP and its idea of the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ensembles hold serve. Winter uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z gfs ensembles do not support the OP and its idea of the SE ridge Good News, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z gfs ensembles do not support the OP and its idea of the SE ridge Yep, excluding FL and based on 850's, the 12Z GEFS for the 11-15 has the SE 0-2 below normal vs. the 5-8 above normal of the 12Z GFS and. vs. the +1 to -1 of the 6Z GEFS. This 0-2 below is the coldest of at least the last four GEFS for the 11-15. FL is 0 to +1 on the 12Z GEFS. Coldest in the country is a whopping -6 to -7 in the Great Lakes, reflecting a lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Won't feel like Winter tomorrow, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z euro has a day 9 gulf low that tracks up east coast, verbatim to warm outside of NE, but nice to see. Also, day 10 looks great, -AO with a building -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 6z op doesn't support the ensemble mean, at all. The op happened to have the ridge this run, throw it out...With the location of the PV on the mean, this thing isn't going to have a persistent SE ridge. 06z OP GFS 06z GEFS Not sure what the GFS ingests to come to its conclusions, but based on the last couple of runs, I'm betting/hoping it's some form of electronic eggnog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro is supportive of real blocking in the Pacific and some sort of slightly positive but potentially heading negative NAO situation in the Atlantic. It's been consistent for several runs now. Regardless, it will be a cooler pattern in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro ENS support the OP, and hold it through day 15, with slightly negative AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro ENS support the OP, and hold it through day 15, with slightly negative AO/NAO.yeah pretty good look on the ensembles. Ridge bridge ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yep, excluding FL and based on 850's, the 12Z GEFS for the 11-15 has the SE 0-2 below normal vs. the 5-8 above normal of the 12Z GFS and. vs. the +1 to -1 of the 6Z GEFS. This 0-2 below is the coldest of at least the last four GEFS for the 11-15. FL is 0 to +1 on the 12Z GEFS. Coldest in the country is a whopping -6 to -7 in the Great Lakes, reflecting a lack of blocking. 12Z Euro Ens. 11-15 mean: -1 for the SE vs. 0 to -2 on the GEFS. So, very slightly below normal overall during a portion of the coldest normals of the winter. Not bad and much better than Dec. has been for most. Euro ens. 11-15 has -AO and near neutral NAO. 500 mb flow: mainly westerly/pretty dry though if could shift to moist WSW at times with cold enough air just to the north, there could be some wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 12Z Euro Ens. 11-15 mean: -1 for the SE vs. 0 to -2 on the GEFS. So, very slightly below normal overall during a portion of the coldest normals of the winter. Not bad and much better than Dec. has been for most. Euro ens. 11-15 has -AO and near neutral -NAO. Yep, I think we all have been looking at that time-frame for something good. If it holds serve, we could have a winter weather threat to track in the coming days. With all the cold bottled up in Canada, a little blocking could go a long way toward getting us in the game. I really like the look of the Pacific. Now, let's see what a good Atlantic and Pacific will do for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Going back to the last 10 days in October,the solar flux over the last 62 days has averaged 152.50.Barely but into Solar Max territory. Didn't see many people calling for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GFS 18Z has come in astronomically warm for down here - min of 57 after 12/29 through 1/6. Two things - 1) Unheard of, even down here; and 2) Makes no sense if the PV is splitting and NAO and/or AO are going negative. I ask again - what the heck kind of cool aid is that model drinking; or are we really in for a real warm run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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