Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Look guys, I know in recent history, a better pattern was always 10 days away, seeming to never arrive. But you can't just assume that's always going to be the case or the case this time. Yeah, pattern changes get rushed in the models and the pattern hardly ever turns out as good as it looks T+10 days. It's fun to look at the 300 hour progs, but the hardly ever verify. If that's the expectation, then yeah, the pattern is always going to be 10 days away.

I can't remember very many sustained wintry patterns that set in and hung out for weeks on end. 09/10 was an anomaly. Blocking kept showing up and the pattern remained cold. But even that year, outside of the Christmas storm, I didn't get a lot of winter weather imby.

If the expectation is for this wonderful 300+ hour pattern to eventually set in, then yeah, we're probably all going to be disappointed. in this part of the country, we have to make do. This winter, we very well may not get into an anomalous, sustained wintry pattern, but we will have setups that are ok and somewhere in there, we'll cash in. That's very, very normal for life in the SE, and that's what we realistically ought to expect.

[SnowNiner]

Good analysis PB.  IF, IF cold air is driven far enough south (I will bo-lieve it when I see it), two prior storms that would fit with the 500mb pattern would be 1/10/62 and 12/23/93 (two that were in your analog list yesterday - or if not, they were on their today).  Both light snow events.  You can see the similarities with the 500mb pattern for those from the links below.  12/23/93 was the warmer of the two - probably a more realistic comparison

 

1/10/62 - http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1962/19620110.djvu

12/23/93 - http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1993/19931220-19931226.djvu

 

Would the PV far enough south be enoung to keep storms from going over the SE states?  How far south would it need to be?

[griteater]

Would the PV far enough south be enoung to keep storms from going over the SE states?  How far south would it need to be? 

 

A lobe of it needs to drop between the U.S. border and south of Hudson Bay - in that general area I would say...need the strong western ridging.

[bobbitt]

sounds like people are trying too fine excuses for it not  too happen models have errors this far out  pattern changes an baised in the models  have too be looked at when dealing with this..  do i think it will happen yess i do the nov pattern will show back up this winter or close too it.

[BullCityWx]

sounds like people are trying too fine excuses for it not too happen models have errors this far out pattern changes an baised in the models have too be looked at when dealing with this.. do i think it will happen yess i do the nov pattern will show back up this winter or close too it.

lol

[burgertime]

12z GFS at the end is a classic +NAO with below normal over Greenland and above normal south of it over the Atlantic basin.  These anomalies need to be the exact opposite of this to get what we're after.

 

 

 

I was on my mobile just looking at the surface map. It looked so good at the sfc. 18z is painful to look at. Puts 2/3rds of the country in the freezer then it finally makes it to the SE just to go all wonky and weak. Probably not likely but still for the love of all that is holy this holiday season can we get some darn consistency? 

[NEGa]

Look guys, I know in recent history, a better pattern was always 10 days away, seeming to never arrive. But you can't just assume that's always going to be the case or the case this time. Yeah, pattern changes get rushed in the models and the pattern hardly ever turns out as good as it looks T+10 days. It's fun to look at the 300 hour progs, but the hardly ever verify. If that's the expectation, then yeah, the pattern is always going to be 10 days away.

I can't remember very many sustained wintry patterns that set in and hung out for weeks on end. 09/10 was an anomaly. Blocking kept showing up and the pattern remained cold. But even that year, outside of the Christmas storm, I didn't get a lot of winter weather imby.

If the expectation is for this wonderful 300+ hour pattern to eventually set in, then yeah, we're probably all going to be disappointed. in this part of the country, we have to make do. This winter, we very well may not get into an anomalous, sustained wintry pattern, but we will have setups that are ok and somewhere in there, we'll cash in. That's very, very normal for life in the SE, and that's what we realistically ought to expect.

well said.  sustain cold is rare in most places in the US outside far north and mountainous regions.  i remember quite a few winters that were up and down, evens 60s or 70 and snow/sleet a few days later.  as long as we can get a pattern to get the cold air far enough south to come into play winter weather can certainly occur.  the pattern a couple of weeks ago wasnt the best, but gave parts of the se some prethanksgiving snow and ice (even for those arguing a late tgiving doesnt count it does in my book since that is NOVEMBER winter precip!)

 

anyone expecting to see a repeat of a couple of winters ago is more than likely going to be waiting a long long long time

[Pilotwx]

Remember u don't want overwhelming cold. That northwest flow would dry out the Pineapple Express making it dried fruit by the time it got us

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

sounds like people are trying too fine excuses for it not  too happen models have errors this far out  pattern changes an baised in the models  have too be looked at when dealing with this..  do i think it will happen yess i do the nov pattern will show back up this winter or close too it.

??? Please tell us (in English) what you are trying to say.

[dsaur]

well said.  sustain cold is rare in most places in the US outside far north and mountainous regions.  i remember quite a few winters that were up and down, evens 60s or 70 and snow/sleet a few days later.  as long as we can get a pattern to get the cold air far enough south to come into play winter weather can certainly occur.  the pattern a couple of weeks ago wasnt the best, but gave parts of the se some prethanksgiving snow and ice (even for those arguing a late tgiving doesnt count it does in my book since that is NOVEMBER winter precip!)

 

anyone expecting to see a repeat of a couple of winters ago is more than likely going to be waiting a long long long time

I think we'll get the same repeated thru the winter, and that's fine with me.  A normal Ga winter.  Waves of cold making it in a little, making it in a lot, working out about normal.  And hopefully some above normal rains.  Chances with timing.  Some cads giving  better chances as it gets into winter.  Two or three shots at a phase, one or two hits would be great, lol.  And probably we get a hit in 3+ years on average ....so average will be fine, especially after the last few years....it's due for Macon, Candyman, me, Shack.   It's been a while since the last big sleet/sn down here from a gulf storm...if the recent pattern is what we get, it might be a zrain storm over the better part of the state, after Chrismas into the first part of Jan, rather than a 2/3's ip/sn...so we need to hope for 2 storms, lol, and for that we need a split flow.  So....... that's what I want for Christmas...a rainy split flow.   T

[BIG FROSTY]

Remember u don't want overwhelming cold. That northwest flow would dry out the Pineapple Express making it dried fruit by the time it got us

I agree, But this year I don't believe there will be such a thing as overwhelming cold in the SE. Or should I say I'll believe it when I see it!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Remember u don't want overwhelming cold. That northwest flow would dry out the Pineapple Express making it dried fruit by the time it got us

Maybe we do want the cold to be overwhelming. That's the only way we will be able to thwart the SE ridge.

[Jon]

Look guys, I know in recent history, a better pattern was always 10 days away, seeming to never arrive. But you can't just assume that's always going to be the case or the case this time. Yeah, pattern changes get rushed in the models and the pattern hardly ever turns out as good as it looks T+10 days. It's fun to look at the 300 hour progs, but the hardly ever verify. If that's the expectation, then yeah, the pattern is always going to be 10 days away.

I can't remember very many sustained wintry patterns that set in and hung out for weeks on end. 09/10 was an anomaly. Blocking kept showing up and the pattern remained cold. But even that year, outside of the Christmas storm, I didn't get a lot of winter weather imby.

If the expectation is for this wonderful 300+ hour pattern to eventually set in, then yeah, we're probably all going to be disappointed. in this part of the country, we have to make do. This winter, we very well may not get into an anomalous, sustained wintry pattern, but we will have setups that are ok and somewhere in there, we'll cash in. That's very, very normal for life in the SE, and that's what we realistically ought to expect.

Even if the 300+ hour pattern was negative, the thing still holds true, you shouldn't trust a 300hr prog at all. That said, I believe there is an obvious change being seen on the models and it happens to be more favorable than the current pattern we're in, so with those types of changes people are always cautious. If a sustained ridge of death kept showing up 300+ everyone would be cliff diving by now.

 

Truth is, it's hard not to be optimistic about the change coming up, and if you're still not optimistic than I feel you're going to be let down no matter what because we're not going to see a pattern of perfection this year, but we're going to come close with something that works and we should cash in on this...it's going to be hard not to if the models are right. It's already fairly obvious on the GFS just gotta wait for other models to get in range.

[pcbjr]

Maybe we do want the cold to be overwhelming. That's the only way we will be able to thwart the SE ridge.

 

Could not agree more.

 

Things like this (though not law, Bible, or set in stone) continue to cause concern:

 

 

Though I suppose we can find maps that show just the opposite (which also is alarming - no consistency).

[Jon]

Could not agree more.

 

Things like this (though not law, Bible, or set in stone) continue to cause concern:

 

gfs_T2ma_namer_42.png

 

Though I suppose we can find maps that show just the opposite (which also is alarming - no consistency).

I saw in a video the other day JB had a good point in that he said some of these outputs instead support a more eastern trough and these models that have the trough hanging back west are overdone and incorrect, thus leading to the SE ridge. I guess he's just going off his experience but it does make sense. Cold air dominates. If we get real cold, I mean real real cold, instead of a persistent SE ridge it will be non-existent and we will be cold.

[pcbjr]

^

 

Jon,

 

We don't know each other, but you and I are members of the same choir, and we're on the same song sheet.

 

Real cold; knock down ridge; have some winter ....

[franklin NCwx]

Man everytime the gefs run they look better and better.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Man everytime the gefs run they look better and better.

Do tell us...

[pcbjr]

Man everytime the gefs run they look better and better.

 

???

 

 

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Do tell us...

More ridging over the pole deeper trough over the east. Wanting to keep the trough east of Hawaii.

[Cold Rain]

Even if the 300+ hour pattern was negative, the thing still holds true, you shouldn't trust a 300hr prog at all. That said, I believe there is an obvious change being seen on the models and it happens to be more favorable than the current pattern we're in, so with those types of changes people are always cautious. If a sustained ridge of death kept showing up 300+ everyone would be cliff diving by now.

Truth is, it's hard not to be optimistic about the change coming up, and if you're still not optimistic than I feel you're going to be let down no matter what because we're not going to see a pattern of perfection this year, but we're going to come close with something that works and we should cash in on this...it's going to be hard not to if the models are right. It's already fairly obvious on the GFS just gotta wait for other models to get in range.

Yessiree. Good post.

[packbacker]

???

 

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_51.png

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_51.png

 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_51.png

We need that purple blob on the 5h map on the south side of the bay, then we would be in business. Will see...

[pcbjr]

We need that purple blob on the 5h map on the south side of the bay, then we would be in business. Will see...

 

 

Concur. 10 thousand %.

 

Now time for Mex and a margarita; weather be danged ....

[Pilotwx]

But you know as well as I do if the cold comes down as a massive cold high then watching moisture on the radar is not the same as seeing snow fall from the sky. Trust me if you want some cliff diving then have a raging Virga storm. Seen it to many times, to me it's worse than 33 and rain

I agree, But this year I don't believe there will be such a thing as overwhelming cold in the SE. Or should I say I'll believe it when I see it!

[pcbjr]

DT is making noise:

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/the-coming-blast/621976721182923

 

Maps # 6 and 8 would be, well, wonderful

 

 

 

 

(Mex and a margarita got put off for a few ...)

[dsaur]

 But then Jerry doesn't mind if its super dry cold, he just wants to see 14 in Gainesville, and who can blame him, lol.  T

[pcbjr]

 But then Jerry doesn't mind if its super dry cold, he just wants to see 14 in Gainesville, and who can blame him, lol.  T

 Huh?

 

14º I could take, so long as its not 80 two days later -- how about for here around 20º low - 45/50º high for about a month, and a bunch of lows swinging low out of the gulf and up the inside east coast, all the while? It has happened.

 

Or how about a Feb 1899 pattern?

 

Either would goodly cook all of the southerners to my north flank, which would be fantastic,  and would let me get rid of last year, as well .....

[Jon]

How can you not like the 18z GEFS?

 

10-15 day temp anom. It's obvious the member with the SE ridge is an outlier and wow some of these are deep and cold in the SE. Location of PV on most of these members is definitely more south than not. If we didn't have that SE ridge member the ens mean would look insane.

 

 

 

 

24hr ens mean days 0-16. Check out the last panel, widespread cold? This frame should have a trough that's more centered east, look how its hanging back the cold over Cuba and the blocking over the top.

 

 

 

 

GEFS Control, yeah it's at 384hrs but look at the blocking over the top, wow...location of the PV. ULL bombing out somewhere on the east coast. This is getting good. 00z runs should be good tonight.

 

[SnowNiner]

One of these days well get that setup. Not sure its this year. But when we get it man that's going to be nice.

[Wow]

0z GFS flips in the LR back to a building -AO with the -WPO ridge penetrating the arctic circle and splitting the PV.  I think a pattern change is coming guys.  Hopefully this +AO regime is coming to an end finally.