Wow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Look out below. At 240 GFS looks to have a potential major snow for the SE. With cold air filtering in we have a nice low tracking across the middle of FL. Sent from my HTC One This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Look out below. At 240 GFS looks to have a potential major snow for the SE. With cold air filtering in we have a nice low tracking across the middle of FL. Sent from my HTC One This? Yep I'll gladly take that look this far out. I'd be willing to bet that's a good timing situation. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Don't see any great blocking, but it looks good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Don't see any great blocking, but it looks good anyway. PV still splits at 30mb for a while but quickly reforms and it gets shoved toward Hudson Bay/Greenland. Strong PV this year it's going to take a strong mechanism to split.displace for blocking to develop but we might get windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Don't see any great blocking, but it looks good anyway. Yeah, I'm not seeing it either. I'm starting to doubt that the models are really picking up on any true west based Greenland blocking. It seems that the ridging on the west coast goes to the pole clearly, but the true block that we need to keep the PV south never shows up. It has maybe a more neutural -NAO look maybe?? However even though the block isn't there, the PV stays close enough to put us on the cool side of things on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 PV still splits at 30mb for a while but quickly reforms and it gets shoved toward Hudson Bay/Greenland. Strong PV this year it's going to take a strong mechanism to split.displace for blocking to develop but we might get windows. Seems like every year, lately, we get a super strong PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, as ST said, we may be starting to see some cracks in the armor of the +AO/+NAO regime. While positive in the near term, both look to dive torward neutral, with indications of negative values in the LR. Looking at the guidance over the last couple of days, this appears in-step with the latest trends. The CFS (posted below) has now taken a turn back to the colder side in the east for the month of Jan. Precipitation looks lower than average after Week 1. The PII index still remains negative but continues to trend toward neutral. The 0z GFS didn't snow as much in the way of a west-based -NAO through the period, but it looked ok. The 6z (below), IMO, was better and had a Greenland Block. The Euro looked ok toward the end of its run, but I didn't pick up on any winter storm potential, like the 0z/6z GFS had. The 6z GFS at at 360 hrs (bottom image) is a good illustration of a -NAO and why it's important. It helps to flatten the SE ridge, pressing the PV to the south and east. It also allows high pressure to generally enter the US and travel across the norther tier, instead of slamming straight south to the GOM. This promotes a cold air feed into the SE, and it leaves the Gulf available to be tapped by any energy that comes along. You can see here that we have somewhat of a STJ. The arctic front has passed through most of the SE, and even Waycross is on the verge of *gasp* winter. I posted this map to show that, not because I believe this will actually be the case at 360 hours (ahem, Metallica!). Above that is today's dramtic CFS turn around bright eyes from yesterday's run. That is actually a neutral/positive NAO transitioning into a more positive NAO. That trough should lift in the last frames. Below is the later frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z GFS at the end is a classic +NAO with below normal over Greenland and above normal south of it over the Atlantic basin. These anomalies need to be the exact opposite of this to get what we're after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here we go! A lot to talk about today, so lets break it down. This weekend, early next week: A front is going to push into the southeast, bringing the chance of some very heavy rain and possibly storms at the beginning of the front. Then, it stalls. Yes, the models show this front stalling for 12-18 hours over the southeast. This provides rounds of heavy rain east of the Appalachians through Tuesday. Rain totals with this storm could approach 2-4 inches through the Carolinas, Georgia, and Virginia if this was to happen. Usually the models break down a ridge to quickly, so I always knew this was a possibility. Once the front passes, it will be cool for Christmas Eve and Day. There will be a few snow showers in the mountains of NC due to northwest flow; however, accumulations will be light. The GFS keeps the cold air lurking just to our north through next week with a piece of energy moving along the Gulf Coast. This could be something to watch next weekend as the chance of having an east coast storm is possible in this pattern. The blocking is not great in the long term, but it does appear to be better than what we have seen. The teleconnections on the CPC page shows all of the indices moving towards a neutral state, and the NAO and AO possibly moving into a negative state. This is the first time in a long time that we can say there is a chance of a negative NAO. The picture Wow posted is a little upsetting because it does show the big vortex over Greenland, but this could change as we do move through this active period. Finally, we have something excited to talk about in the southeast. But, do not overlook the storm this weekend. There will be a lot of heavy rain through the southeast United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It looks like things could get really dangerous tomorrow for LA, AK, and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z GFS at the end is a classic +NAO with below normal over Greenland and above normal south of it over the Atlantic basin. These anomalies need to be the exact opposite of this to get what we're after. Yeah it seems like the the AO is going to improve in the long range but not the NAO. That's still quite problematic for the SE, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah it seems like the the AO is going to improve in the long range but not the NAO. That's still quite problematic for the SE, IMO. I guess it shows how important the influence of the NAO compared to the AO. This year the extremely positive AO hasn't produced a torch, while last year the extremely negative AO did nothing to enhance winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think we're going to bring in 2014 with a bang! Reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Reasoning? Maybe he thinks he will win WOTY (if the contest is ever actually fully run; I'm confused about it now as it seems to be in limbo) and that would be a bang in a way to end 2013 and start 2014? Or maybe he's indirectly referring to his 2nd movie? Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is actually a neutral/positive NAO transitioning into a more positive NAO. That trough should lift in the last frames. Below is the later frame. Yep, that 12z image you posted there is a very positive NAO. Not the best thing for us, but it can be overcome if other features are present/properly aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z Euro doesn't look awful. No blocking, of course, but not a grotesque look either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 **Alert** **Alert** http://t.co/HmNubXqOa6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z Euro doesn't look awful. No blocking, of course, but not a grotesque look either. Sounds like a relieved guy waking up next to a gal after a night out. I think the key thing to look for here is the ridging off the west coast...does it push boldly up through Alaska, or does it stay kind of muted - that keys whether cold air is driven south, with potential storminess along a stalled boundary along the gulf. No strong ridging, and the cold air for wintry weather stays to our north in this west-based +NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Sounds like a relieved guy waking up next to a gal after a night out. I think the key thing to look for here is the ridging off the west coast...does it push boldly up through Alaska, or does it stay kind of muted - that keys whether cold air is driven south, with potential storminess along a stalled boundary along the gulf. No strong ridging, and the cold air for wintry weather stays to our north in this west-based +NAO regime. Haha! I guess that's pretty much the sentiment. The whole "pattern change" is still a precarious situation right now. At least the Euro wasn't completely in the other direction, which I'm still half expecting at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Reasoning? Just that things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Haha! I guess that's pretty much the sentiment. The whole "pattern change" is still a precarious situation right now. At least the Euro wasn't completely in the other direction, which I'm still half expecting at any time. Is it really a pattern change? -EPO just reloads and the NAO stays positive. Is the AO going to neutral really a big pattern change? I still think, kinda like grit already said, that we're going to live and die by the PNA this winter. Blocking just isn't working in our favor so far. We have to depend on a tall GREAT placement ridge to push the trough so storms go south of us. That's alot to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 **Alert** **Alert** http://t.co/HmNubXqOa6 That looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Is it really a pattern change? -EPO just reloads and the NAO stays positive. Is the AO going to neutral really a big pattern change? I still think, kinda like grit already said, that we're going to live and die by the PNA this winter. Blocking just isn't working in our favor so far. We have to depend on a tall GREAT placement ridge to push the trough so storms go south of us. That's alot to expect. Yeah, I'm with ya...it's why I put "pattern change" in quotes. It's a change from the current garbage, but it's more of a reversion back to the earlier pattern *unless* we get some blocking, which is kind of showing up off and on. But yeah, more of the same, with maybe some slightly better opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro ensembles completely folded to the gefs. Ridge bridge ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro ensembles completely folded to the gefs. Ridge bridge ! Laymens terms please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro ensembles completely folded to the gefs. Ridge bridge ! Yep, now if we could just get the PV to drop south some, we would be in business.. A -NAO would be great to slow the storms down and allow things to develop deeper/stronger but we still can get a nice event with what is being shown in the day 10-15 setup, assuming it comes to fruition, the analogs still look good, IMO. We just need to get to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Keeps getting delay delay. Before long we will be mowing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As much as i hate to suggest it, there is a better chance than 50-50 that we will be discussing during the 3rd week of January when this elusive pattern change will arrive. This years predominant winter pattern has lower central states thru upper Ohio valley to NE written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yep, now if we could just get the PV to drop south some, we would be in business.. A -NAO would be great to slow the storms down and allow things to develop deeper/stronger but we still can get a nice event with what is being shown in the day 10-15 setup, assuming it comes to fruition, the analogs still look good, IMO. We just need to get to January. Good analysis PB. IF, IF cold air is driven far enough south (I will bo-lieve it when I see it), two prior storms that would fit with the 500mb pattern would be 1/10/62 and 12/23/93 (two that were in your analog list yesterday - or if not, they were on there today). Both light snow events. You can see the similarities with the 500mb pattern for those from the links below. 12/23/93 was the warmer of the two - probably a more realistic comparison 1/10/62 - http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1962/19620110.djvu 12/23/93 - http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1993/19931220-19931226.djvu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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