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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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It is nice to actually see the models are starting to show the idea of colder air moving into the southeast and the United States. There is tons of cold air located to our north, and we have seen shots of that cold air. The problem of not being able to lock in the cold air has continued to plague us.

 

The question now is can we get blocking or great timing to help us have a better chance of receiving wintry weather. I do not trust the models very far out; however, it is nice to see agreement among the ensembles that we will at least have a chance for below average temperatures coming up.

 

With the major low pressure over Britain,this has the opportunity to change the pattern. It is also nice to see the chance of stratospheric warming which can also send ripples through the atmosphere.

 

At least we have something positive to talk about in the extended period. Lets just hope that this is the start of a trend of colder weather in the southeast.

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My confidence is growing on a favorable pattern flip, though I wouldn't be shocked to see the shift get delayed for a little bit as we see so often with these things.

January and February look like they could be fun...

it is looking like more of a possibility finally.  i know a lot have been frustrated but its only dec and it has been more active than the last two years already (at least imby). for the most part jan - early to mid march are our usual best bets.  so of all the times to have a warm up and then hopeful shift to the colder pattern starting next week would be it in my book

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 The operational and ensemble runs today were overall colder for the US with the coldest relative to normal north of us, leaving the SE close to normal. OTOH, the just released Euro weeklies (which is based off of 0Z) have a Bermuda high ridging into the SE US for all four weeks with warmer than normal temperatures. What to believe?

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Robert has a great extended write up on his paid site which I won't post but, here is a Facebook post of his from earlier today.

 

The extended is updated...as dangerous as that is to even try to cover in a pattern change, but overall I like the idea of all models building the western ridge to the Pole, then blocking over top with time. In essence, a cold Siberia/Kamtchatka, warm Alaska, and cold North America with time, just like November was. Now I'll be focusing on the short term.
I'm watching the system this weekend slow down along GA to NC coasts on Monday and Tuesday, and by then, so much western ridging is going up, it's possible the Southeast front stalls completely, so I'd keep an eye in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico until we have a clear sign that all is clear next week.
More on the Christmas Outlook soon. Meanwhile enjoy a nice sunny day in the Southeast before the cloudy weekend arrives.
wxsouth.com

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 The operational and ensemble runs today were overall colder for the US with the coldest relative to normal north of us, leaving the SE close to normal. OTOH, the just released Euro weeklies (which is based off of 0Z) have a Bermuda high ridging into the SE US for all four weeks with warmer than normal temperatures. What to believe?

Larry, I may have used the dangerous, and experimental "Tony's Storm" gambit the other day, and this would account for one model talking Siberian cold excursions, while another expresses warmer than normal zephers of heat.  This is to be expected, and I'm sorry :)  I was merely trying to stop the knife fights, and enhance my weekend rain chances at the same time.  Since I don't expect much frozen before Christmas day, I figured getting Michelle and I some needed rain, was worth a risk, and frankly, the cycles return to cold highs and gulf lows was inevitable anyway.  The models may be a bit off setting for a while, but it will be like the old days when we looked outside, because we were outside, and not glued to models whose sole purpose is to betray us, and send us willing, to the cliff!!

 It's coming, just have to be patient :)  Meanwhile, I want rain, cold, hot, in between, I don't care.  Flooding rains welcome here..always.  T

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Larry, I may have used the dangerous, and experimental "Tony's Storm" gambit the other day, and this would account for one model talking Siberian cold excursions, while another expresses warmer than normal zephers of heat.  This is to be expected, and I'm sorry :)  I was merely trying to stop the knife fights, and enhance my weekend rain chances at the same time.  Since I don't expect much frozen before Christmas day, I figured getting Michelle and I some needed rain, was worth a risk, and frankly, the cycles return to cold highs and gulf lows was inevitable anyway.  The models may be a bit off setting for a while, but it will be like the old days when we looked outside, because we were outside, and not glued to models whose sole purpose is to betray us, and send us willing, to the cliff!!

 It's coming, just have to be patient :)  Meanwhile, I want rain, cold, hot, in between, I don't care.  Flooding rains welcome here..always.  T

With any luck we'll hear some thunder to go along with that much needed rain  :wub:

 

CAE....

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY WITH

THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A POTENT

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD

FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS

APPEARS A BIT FAST WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL

PASSAGE ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL H8 JET OF 40-50 KTS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF

THE FRONT AND LI`S WILL LOWER TO AROUND -2 WHICH IS GOOD

INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

MAINLY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED

WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW COOL AND DRY RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT

DOMINATING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO

INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST.

NEAR RECORD

HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE

70S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO

NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY.

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With any luck we'll hear some thunder to go along with that much needed rain   :wub:

 

CAE....

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY WITH

THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A POTENT

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD

FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS

APPEARS A BIT FAST WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL

PASSAGE ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL H8 JET OF 40-50 KTS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF

THE FRONT AND LI`S WILL LOWER TO AROUND -2 WHICH IS GOOD

INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

MAINLY BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED

WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW COOL AND DRY RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT

DOMINATING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO

INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST.

NEAR RECORD

HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE

70S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO

NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY.

To breathe a little caution on the subject...I was just watching the local weather folks showing their super keen animation of predicted rain cells, and they show 2 squall lines approaching me, and the cells splitting apart and going around me, as has been the case pretty much since 1999.  If their super keen animation gizmos know about the cursed (but much less cursed lately) lands, I don't know how much hope we have...I mean if they know about me in in house model animationland I shudder to think about the outcome :) Be wary, be aware!  It may be thunderpoots, and not thunderstorms, lol. It isn't getting that hot here anyway...so much for the horrid, lets flee off the cliff zombie appokylipse torch.  I just don't count my rains any more until they are in the bucket...though I have to say this front seems to be coming standing upright...but there is plenty of time for it to bow down to the king ridge.  Tony

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0z GFS was a thing of beauty in the 200-300 time frame. That is a look you want to see. By next week if it has it in the 180 hour time frame I'll be really excited. At least though it's showing plausible reasons for a pattern change. The big question will be if and when that change happens does it stay entrenched or is it just a transient change? 

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Well I think everything this morning continues to look......better.  Blocking seems consistent in the long long range.  But what I'm noticing in most of the modeling is the cold being centered in the middle of the CONUS.  It works east at times but the SE ridge pokes up and keeps us above average temps at times as well.  I'm not seeing a consistent cold period due to the blocking. 

 

I think it may be that the mega EPO ridge may be too far to the west; giving us a -PNA and then downstream pumps up the SE ridge on us.  Kinda like the November pattern we had....bouts of good cold, but transient.  I don't know.  Too far down the road to know I think right now. 

 

VEYSQeAl.png

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Well, as ST said, we may be starting to see some cracks in the armor of the +AO/+NAO regime. While positive in the near term, both look to dive torward neutral, with indications of negative values in the LR. Looking at the guidance over the last couple of days, this appears in-step with the latest trends.

The CFS (posted below) has now taken a turn back to the colder side in the east for the month of Jan. Precipitation looks lower than average after Week 1.

The PII index still remains negative but continues to trend toward neutral.

The 0z GFS didn't snow as much in the way of a west-based -NAO through the period, but it looked ok. The 6z (below), IMO, was better and had a Greenland Block. The Euro looked ok toward the end of its run, but I didn't pick up on any winter storm potential, like the 0z/6z GFS had.

The 6z GFS at at 360 hrs (bottom image) is a good illustration of a -NAO and why it's important. It helps to flatten the SE ridge, pressing the PV to the south and east. It also allows high pressure to generally enter the US and travel across the norther tier, instead of slamming straight south to the GOM. This promotes a cold air feed into the SE, and it leaves the Gulf available to be tapped by any energy that comes along. You can see here that we have somewhat of a STJ. The arctic front has passed through most of the SE, and even Waycross is on the verge of *gasp* winter. I posted this map to show that, not because I believe this will actually be the case at 360 hours (ahem, Metallica!).

Above that is today's dramtic CFS turn around bright eyes from yesterday's run.

post-987-0-86882300-1387548747_thumb.gif

post-987-0-75037400-1387548762_thumb.gif

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Well I think everything this morning continues to look......better.  Blocking seems consistent in the long long range.  But what I'm noticing in most of the modeling is the cold being centered in the middle of the CONUS.  It works east at times but the SE ridge pokes up and keeps us above average temps at times as well.  I'm not seeing a consistent cold period due to the blocking. 

 

I think it may be that the mega EPO ridge may be too far to the west; giving us a -PNA and then downstream pumps up the SE ridge on us.  Kinda like the November pattern we had....bouts of good cold, but transient.  I don't know.  Too far down the road to know I think right now. 

 

On a positive note the se Ridge hasn't been as bad as typically forecasted in advance and has easily been overcome by Cold air masses. Time will tell I suppose.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

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