Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[pcbjr]

 

 

It just needs to sink about 200 miles to the southeast  

 

 

I'll spot you the 200 and raise you 300; then the game would get real interesting.

[Cold Rain]

12z GFS looks cold for most of the US in the LR. But based on where the PV is and how the over-the-top blocking is shown, it seems like it would only favor a glancing blow to the SE, with the mean storm track still to the west and divergent flow in the NE US and SE Canada. Perhaps if the block in northern Greenland retrogrades more, that would help. The -EPO sure looks nice. Regardless, it's pointless trying to pick apart 300 hour guidance. But overall, it's miles better than what we've been seeing over the last week. Miles better.

[JoshM]

I'll spot you the 200 and raise you 300; then the game would get real interesting.

I check... pretty good at this point, LR trend is in our favor ATM

[buckeyefan1]

I'll spot you the 200 and raise you 300; then the game would get real interesting.

Agreed  While that is the mother load of cold air, once again it is placed in the center of the country and oozes eastward. I won't get excited until I see the ridge displaced, a bit of blocking and disturbances crossing the middle of FL 

[franklin NCwx]

12z GFS looks cold for most of the US in the LR. But based on where the PV is and how the over-the-top blocking is shown, it seems like it would only favor a glancing blow to the SE, with the mean storm track still to the west and divergent flow in the NE US and SE Canada. Perhaps if the block in northern Greenland retrogrades more, that would help. The -EPO sure looks nice. Regardless, it's pointless trying to pick apart 300 hour guidance. But overall, it's miles better than what we've been seeing over the last week. Miles better.

We should take our chances with a look like this in January! 

 

 

[pcbjr]

We should take our chances with a look like this in January! 

 

 

 

 

On a small mobile monitor this afternoon and can't make this out - what am I looking at (and from what direction)?

[franklin NCwx]

And check out the strong signal on the GEFS for day 15 very supportive of the op. I have to say, that's a strong signal for a day 15 ensemble mean.

 

 

 

[K4CF]

On a small mobile monitor this afternoon and can't make this out - what am I looking at (and from what direction)?

Looking down at the North Pole...Greenland on the upper right...Santa waving in the center

[franklin NCwx]

On a small mobile monitor this afternoon and can't make this out - what am I looking at (and from what direction)?

Its blocking connecting over the pole from Greenland to Alaska, it's a view of where Santa lives. Basically the epo hooks up the nao

[Cold Rain]

 

We should take our chances with a look like this in January!

 

Yeah, that looks pretty good. Just move that ridge axis a few hundred miles south and it would be ideal! Either way, like you said, we should take it and run.

[pcbjr]

KF4C and franklin -

 

Thanks! Got it; can't make out particular details on this tiny screen but I get the drift and now understand what I'm looking at.

[K4CF]

KF4C and franklin -

 

Thanks! Got it; can't make out particular details on this tiny screen but I get the drift and now understand what I'm looking at.

Hey it took me a while to figure it out too...thought it was Mars for a split second 

[Cold Rain]

From hour 84 hour 138, the Canadian has rain over central NC. Nice frontal stall.

[Brick Tamland]

From NC Piedmont Weather on facebook:

 

Wintry threat still showing up but moved to December 26-27 time frame...If we can get this energy to wait until December 29-30 we could have a big wintry event in many places in the South but this is just a POSSIBILITY and NOT my forecast...But the time frame from early to mid January will feature some of the coldest air seen in a while and I believe the AO and NAO will move Negative and the PNA will be positive so I believe the FUN and GAMES is about to begin after we get through this awful warm weather over this coming weekend...Some severe weather is also possible in the Western and Central NC and SC regions but main threat will be damaging wind gusts in thunderstorms but more on this threat tomorrow.

[Wow]

Euro agrees w/ GFS on the PV split by D10.   This allows what the GFS does beyond this time frame by pumping the -EPO ridge well into the arctic.  Maybe, just maybe the solar flux/+QBO is going to pay off and end this ++AO pattern.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Euro agrees w/ GFS on the PV split by D10.   This allows what the GFS does beyond this time frame by pumping the -EPO ridge well into the arctic.  Maybe, just maybe the solar flux/+QBO is going to pay off and end this ++AO pattern.

 

 

Even if it doesn't end it completely and provide us with a needed period of a -AO, having the PV split and move into southern Canada would be a way that the upper south and NC could still benefit with an AO near neutral or even slightly positive.  Of course it goes without saying that having a -AO would be many times better.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro agrees w/ GFS on the PV split by D10.   This allows what the GFS does beyond this time frame by pumping the -EPO ridge well into the arctic.  Maybe, just maybe the solar flux/+QBO is going to pay off and end this ++AO pattern.

 

This is what Joe E Aleo has been banging the drum on for months. Solar max with a +QBO leads to blocking and a trough in the SE U.S for the 2nd half of winter. He is very confident about it. I Really hope he is right, time will tell.

[franklin NCwx]

Pretty good agreement, still waiting on the Euro ensembles.

 

 

[Wow]

This is what Joe E Aleo has been banging the drum on for months. Solar max with a +QBO leads to blocking and a trough in the SE U.S for the 2nd half of winter. He is very confident about it. I Really hope he is right, time will tell.

 

Good read on SSW events. Watch the Taklamakan Desert.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

[superjames1992]

My confidence is growing on a favorable pattern flip, though I wouldn't be shocked to see the shift get delayed for a little bit as we see so often with these things.

January and February look like they could be fun...

[tnweathernut]

My confidence is growing on a favorable pattern flip, though I wouldn't be shocked to see the shift get delayed for a little bit as we see so often with these things.

We have already had a couple of "false starts" showing on the modeling in the past 10 days.

[griteater]

We have already had a couple of "false starts" showing on the modeling in the past 10 days.

 

Yeah, I'm going to need a Rod Tidwell 'show me the money' before I believe....did see this from CPC

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 27, 2013 - JAN 02, 2014   THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO  THAT FOR DAYS 6-10, AS ARE THE PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST  RATIONALE. A FEW DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  DEEPEN A BIT, EXPANDING REGIONS OF ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL  TEMPERATURES TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  THE DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE  SOUTHERN STREAM, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEMS AND SLIGHTLY  ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF AND  MID-ATLANTIC COASTS.

[Poimen]

 

Yeah, I'm going to need a Rod Tidwell 'show me the money' before I believe....did see this from CPC

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 27, 2013 - JAN 02, 2014   THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO  THAT FOR DAYS 6-10, AS ARE THE PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST  RATIONALE. A FEW DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  DEEPEN A BIT, EXPANDING REGIONS OF ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL  TEMPERATURES TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  THE DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE  SOUTHERN STREAM, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEMS AND SLIGHTLY  ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF AND  MID-ATLANTIC COASTS.

 

Thanks for sharing, Grit. I must say that is the most encouraging thing I've read weather wise in a while.

[DixieBlizzard]

Hey guys, would there still be some incorrect modeling due to the huge storm that was supposed to be a pattern-changer in Europe or is this modeled pattern a direct result of that storm? TIA!

[bobbitt]

Good read on SSW events. Watch the Taklamakan Desert.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

people can say what they want but i was saying this from the start of winter . it will be interesting too seee the new qbo numbers soon ? a postive qbo solar max is good news for se .

[SnowNiner]

people can say what they want but i was saying this from the start of winter . it will be interesting too seee the new qbo numbers soon ? a postive qbo solar max is good news for se .

 

Don't count yer chickens, before...they're deep fried in Crisco grease.....it ain't happened yet.  We're looking at 300+ hour models here.  It's nice to think about but I've got to see it get closer before I buy into it. 

 

So, what would be the cause of this?  I haven't heard about a SSW unicorn chase this year really.  Is it the QVC with solar flares?  Guess I'm looking for reasons as to why we should think the 300 hr maps have validity. 

[packbacker]

First time in a long time the D11 GEFS Super Ensemble analogs are showing hits, many of them are hits.  Thinking about this some more, it's been years since I have seen so many hits on the D11 analogs...

 

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles look good. Look like they try to phase a system in the southeast on day 11.

[packbacker]

This is for RDU/central NC...

 

Analog #1 - miss (1/5/68 had 33F and rain, 1/10/68 had 3" snowstorm)

Analog #2 - Hit 1/10/62 - 5" snow

Analog #3 - miss (although 1/3/2002 had RDU's best snowstorm ever IMO)

Analog #4 - miss

Analog #5 - Hit - 2 winter storms in the area (12/20/04 and 12/26/04)

Analog #6 - miss (1/20/99 6"+ snow)

Analog #7 - Hit 1/18/51 - light freezing rain

Analog #8 - miss, but everyone knows what happened 3 weeks later

Analog #9 - Hit 1/23/98 - light freezing rain two days in a row

Analog #10 - Hit - 2 winter events (1/17/08 and 1/19/08)

[rduwx]

This is for RDU/central NC...

 

Analog #1 - miss (1/5/68 had 33F and rain, 1/10/68 had 3" snowstorm)

Analog #2 - Hit 1/10/62 - 5" snow

Analog #3 - miss (although 1/3/2002 had RDU's best snowstorm ever IMO)

Analog #4 - miss

Analog #5 - Hit - 2 winter storms in the area (12/20/04 and 12/26/04)

Analog #6 - miss (1/20/99 6"+ snow)

Analog #7 - Hit 1/18/51 - light freezing rain

Analog #8 - miss, but everyone knows what happened 3 weeks later

Analog #9 - Hit 1/23/98 - light freezing rain two days in a row

Analog #10 - Hit - 2 winter events (1/17/08 and 1/19/08)

 

Thanks for the info pack!  1/3/2002 was a great storm but i enjoyed 1/1988 a little more.  I was a senior in HS in 88 and have just great memories of that storm.