Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Yes it is the EPS Ensemble Control run

 

I don't think I like that very much.  It has a nice blue/purple color over the east, but something about the rest of the pattern makes me feel weird.

[MichaelJ]

I don't think I like that very much.  It has a nice blue/purple color over the east, but something about the rest of the pattern makes me feel weird.

True and I think the chances of that verifying are slim and none and slim just left. My purpose was just to show how the models are having a real hard time with the pattern and will change probably daily until they figure it out around Christmas (hopefully)

[Cold Rain]

True and I think the chances of that verifying are slim and none and slim just left. My purpose was just to show how the models are having a real hard time with the pattern and will change probably daily until they figure it out around Christmas (hopefully)

Yep, I'm sure we'll see plenty more changes over the next week or so. Maybe the happy hour GFS will throw us a bone.

[packbacker]

The Al Marinaro -NAO prediction doesn't look good right now, but winter is just beginning. I recall seeing a tweet from him where he wasn't super confident about his prediction which I thought was odd given prior year correlation...can't find it now though.

If he busted, that would be the first bad bust on the -NAO, pretty amazing looking at those numbers.

When I get time tonight want to go look back at the years with NAO -0.4 and stronger to see if there were any years with strong positive Dec.

[Southern Track]

The 18z GFS shows that low off the coast right at truncation phasing with a piece from the northen branch and it heads right up the coast. Maybe something to watch?

[pcbjr]

When I get time tonight want to go look back at the years with NAO -0.4 and stronger to see if there were any years with strong positive Dec.

 

If you can and do, please post your research results!

 

Thanks! 

[DaculaWeather]

How about a Nov 3.04 to a Dec -1.57 avg? 1978

[pcbjr]

^

 

What is the difference between + Decembers and - Januarys, if the NAO is west based vs east? Seems to be a secondary variable in the equation? Of course, it is all academic until it goes negative, but hopefully the question is worth asking.

 

I am not qualified to propose any sort of response to my question - it is therefore not rhetorical!

[packbacker]

If you can and do, please post your research results!

 

Thanks! 

 

Well didn't do a whole lot of research, but from the years he researched (1980-2012) there was 2 seasons where Dec was strongly positive and the winter as a whole DJF averaged negative, not bad I guess.  Years were 2003/04 and 1986/87.

[pcbjr]

Well didn't do a whole lot of research, but from the years he researched (1980-2012) there was 2 seasons where Dec was strongly positive and the winter as a whole DJF averaged negative, not bad I guess.  Years were 2003/04 and 1986/87.

 Seems to me those were cold years in the NE but for the life of me I can't find data on our neck of the woods.

[Jon]

The 18z GFS shows that low off the coast right at truncation phasing with a piece from the northen branch and it heads right up the coast. Maybe something to watch?

Yep. We're going to see a lot of this on all models due to the pattern changing and consequentially, favorable setups. Only a matter of time before we get a clown map and we get to really watch something! It's close.

[Cold Rain]

Yep. We're going to see a lot of this on all models due to the pattern changing and consequentially, favorable setups. Only a matter of time before we get a clown map and we get to really watch something! It's close.

Yeah, and to your point, happy hour does it again in the LR. Beautiful.

[pcbjr]

This is not an IMBY question. I'm really trying to get a grip on why.

 

So here goes:

 

Just being the southern most lookout for the SE folks - can anyone give me any rational reason based on current models, science, analogs, or teleconnections to expect that the SE ridge is going to ever get knocked down and that we might, maybe, could (operative word) get some extended below normal chilly weather down here in the northern most part of Fla this winter (had 3 freezes so far, which is normal, but these recurring 80's are not normal)? I'm just not seeing it.

 

If there is a reason to hope so, I'd surely appreciate an education; if no reason to hope, same sentiment.

 

Thanks!

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, and to your point, happy hour does it again in the LR. Beautiful.

I don't post outside of my subforun much but the 18z gefs is a major -epo reload. The last time this happened the models underestimated the magnitude at longer leads. Granted its just one run but ensemble mean locked in this run.

There has been numerous hints at relatively stable ridging poking into gl as well. It's fleeting on the ens means but it's there. We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

It's not a classic pattern or anything. Just a better pattern. Once the scorched earth ridge and inland runner gets better resolved we may have a clearer picture. I'm rooting for everyone south of the mason Dixon. It's been rough.

[Cold Rain]

This is not an IMBY question. I'm really trying to get a grip on why.

So here goes:

Just being the southern most lookout for the SE folks - can anyone give me any rational reason based on current models, science, analogs, or teleconnections to expect that the SE ridge is going to ever get knocked down and that we might, maybe, could (operative word) get some extended below normal chilly weather down here in the northern most part of Fla this winter (had 3 freezes so far, which is normal, but these recurring 80's are not normal)? I'm just not seeing it.

If there is a reason to hope so, I'd surely appreciate an education; if no reason to hope, same sentiment.

Thanks!

When the AO and NAO is strongly positive, the tendency is for the PV to retreat north into north central Canada as opposed to remaining suppressed south and east, which it needs to do in order to suppress the SE ridge. Also, the downstream wave response to troughing on the west coast (the -PNA) is ridging in the SE. We have been in a persistent +AO/+NAO/-PNA, all of which favor higher heights in the SE.

We need a -NAO (west based). A +PNA would help. It's hard to know whether or not we'll see a turn-around in the indexes or when. I don't know nearly as much as others about the stratosphere and it's evolution throughout the winter, but according to what I've read, the state of the stratosphere this year favors the +AO/+NAO we've been seeing. It's very cold. The indication is that later this winter it will potentially favor more in the way of blocking.

I don't know if that helps or not, but that's all I got.

[packbacker]

I don't post outside of my subforun much but the 18z gefs is a major -epo reload. The last time this happened the models underestimated the magnitude at longer leads. Granted its just one run but ensemble mean locked in this run.

There has been numerous hints at relatively stable ridging poking into gl as well. It's fleeting on the ens means but it's there. We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

It's not a classic pattern or anything. Just a better pattern. Once the scorched earth ridge and inland runner gets better resolved we may have a clearer picture. I'm rooting for everyone south of the mason Dixon. It's been rough.

 

Thanks for the hope Bob!

[griteater]

We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

 

We welcome your posts in here Bob.  ^ A negative EPO reload may be our best hope going into Jan unless this nasty +AO/+NAO regime can buckle.

[pcbjr]

When the AO and NAO is strongly positive, the tendency is for the PV to retreat north into north central Canada as opposed to remaining suppressed south and east, which it needs to do in order to suppress the SE ridge. Also, the downstream wave response to troughing on the west coast (the -PNA) is ridging in the SE. We have been in a persistent +AO/+NAO/-PNA, all of which favor higher heights in the SE.

We need a -NAO (west based). A +PNA would help. It's hard to know whether or not we'll see a turn-around in the indexes or when. I don't know nearly as much as others about the stratosphere and it's evolution throughout the winter, but according to what I've read, the state of the stratosphere this year favors the +AO/+NAO we've been seeing. It's very cold. The indication is that later this winter it will potentially favor more in the way of blocking.

I don't know if that helps or not, but that's all I got.

 It helps; it's what I thought/think; validation. Thanks! (Not what I wanted to read, but reality is reality).

[Cold Rain]

I don't post outside of my subforun much but the 18z gefs is a major -epo reload. The last time this happened the models underestimated the magnitude at longer leads. Granted its just one run but ensemble mean locked in this run.

There has been numerous hints at relatively stable ridging poking into gl as well. It's fleeting on the ens means but it's there. We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

It's not a classic pattern or anything. Just a better pattern. Once the scorched earth ridge and inland runner gets better resolved we may have a clearer picture. I'm rooting for everyone south of the mason Dixon. It's been rough.

Thanks for dropping by, Bob. Feel free anytime. I visit the MA forum about every day. Very good disco there. And all good points here. I believe the odds favor a return to the strong -EPO pattern. The models tend to rush things along, but I think we'll get there. Hopefully, we can all cash in a few times this year.

[Bob Chill]

We welcome your posts in here Bob. ^ A negative EPO reload may be our best hope going into Jan unless this nasty +AO/+NAO regime can buckle.

All global ens are breaking down the nasty +ao before the end of the month. Could be temporary or it could be part of a longwave pattern change. Assuming it happens at all. Lol

The epo reload is logical because there is a huge area of +sst anoms in the gulf of Alaska. Ridging dosnt have to work too hard. But the latest gefs pushes it strongly poleward. Significant change from recent runs. It's either a trendsetter or out to lunch outlier. At least it's a plausible solution even if premature.

We can do well here even if the ao/nao are just neutral. Storms would likely be mixed events but who cares. A pattern repeat of what we've seen already but the storm track being further south would be fine with me. Beggars can't be choosers. Lol

[Cold Rain]

It helps; it's what I thought/think; validation. Thanks! (Not what I wanted to read, but reality is reality).

I wouldn't sweat it. We've got a lot of winter to go. There's no reason to expect a wall to wall bad winter. No reason to expect the opposite either. We'll see some things shifting around soon.

[pcbjr]

^

 

This is what makes this forum special.

[Met1985]

I don't post outside of my subforun much but the 18z gefs is a major -epo reload. The last time this happened the models underestimated the magnitude at longer leads. Granted its just one run but ensemble mean locked in this run.

There has been numerous hints at relatively stable ridging poking into gl as well. It's fleeting on the ens means but it's there. We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

It's not a classic pattern or anything. Just a better pattern. Once the scorched earth ridge and inland runner gets better resolved we may have a clearer picture. I'm rooting for everyone south of the mason Dixon. It's been rough.

Nice to see you over here Bob. You do a great job over in the Mid Atlantic forum posting about the pattern.

[Southern Apps.]

I am so ready to get this winter started.  I believe it was today 4 years ago that we had a great snowstorm in NC.

[buckeyefan1]

All global ens are breaking down the nasty +ao before the end of the month. Could be temporary or it could be part of a longwave pattern change. Assuming it happens at all. Lol

The epo reload is logical because there is a huge area of +sst anoms in the gulf of Alaska. Ridging dosnt have to work too hard. But the latest gefs pushes it strongly poleward. Significant change from recent runs. It's either a trendsetter or out to lunch outlier. At least it's a plausible solution even if premature.

We can do well here even if the ao/nao are just neutral. Storms would likely be mixed events but who cares. A pattern repeat of what we've seen already but the storm track being further south would be fine with me. Beggars can't be choosers. Lol

Bob!       I agree with the bolded   

[Berlin1926]

I don't post outside of my subforun much but the 18z gefs is a major -epo reload. The last time this happened the models underestimated the magnitude at longer leads. Granted its just one run but ensemble mean locked in this run.

There has been numerous hints at relatively stable ridging poking into gl as well. It's fleeting on the ens means but it's there. We all need to pray the pv gets displaced south even modestly if the -epo does in fact reload. Push the gradient further south and us ma and se folks may not be on the outside looking in. We're moving into a much better climo period as well.

It's not a classic pattern or anything. Just a better pattern. Once the scorched earth ridge and inland runner gets better resolved we may have a clearer picture. I'm rooting for everyone south of the mason Dixon. It's been rough.

Thanks man...may be hope after all.

[Bob Chill]

Bob! I agree with the bolded

We'll see how it shakes out. There are good signs and notsogood. Luckily the nao ans epo are notoriously tuff to predict at longer leads. They can quickly join the party.

The big takeaways from long.leads are that there is plenty of cold in our source region (stark contrast to the last couple decembers) and the Pac is remaining friendly. Without blocking we shouldn't expect anything blockbuster or feelings will get hurt.

Another promising sign is an active southern stream. It's prob gonna take a break for a bit but if we pop another epo ridge it will be back. Just gotta get the right combo of cold and precip. I'm thinking the odds favor both because the pattern favors cad events but it won't be a beautiful snow. If we can get the Atlantic to cooperate then chances increase with the quickness.

We'll have a much clearer picture by monday'ish timeframe. We need some pajamas inside out help but it's not unreasonable to think we will have an event or 2 to track before new years.

[GaWx]

 Fwiw, the 0Z Euro is a bit colder for the SE US days 8-10 but, it is the typical dry cold. It has been changing substantially from run to run. Based on model solution volatility, this appears to be a very low confidence period (lower than average for the 8-10 day timeframe). The 0Z GFS is also cooler/dry for days 8-10 as well and is colder days 11-15 fwiw (not too much).

[franklin NCwx]

Wow! Ensembles.

[tnweathernut]

Wow! Ensembles.

Care to elaborate? TIA

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