Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[tonysc]

Burns, I'm with you. 58 years old here and have seen more warm winters here in the SE than I care to see.

Well I kinda hate to admit it but I'm the same age as you Dacula, and you are right to an extent, but I can definitely say that we had colder winters here back in the 60's through the early 70's. I can associate at least one big snowstorm for every year I was in school from about the 4th grade till the 12th. Ok that's nine years but that's nine years in a row. And that doesn't even include all the ice storms we had during those years. I can even remember big snows when I was even younger but were too young to remember exactly what year they were.

 

When Joe Bastardi mentioned the "great winters of the 60's and 70's a few years ago, he was right on.

[BullCityWx]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi14h

We are showing clients how pattern day 10-20 resembles great arctic outbreak of dec 19-28. Showing up on analogs

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi5h

@RyanMaue The negative WPO and ridge over Alaska argues for widespread cold centered near and just EAST of trough Similar to Dec 1983!

Another epic call by Big Joe and Ryan Maue.

[Cold Rain]

Once again, the PII (Posting Intensity Index) is the best barometer of what lies ahead, weather-wise.  The index is currently strongly negative, indicating high probabilities of an unfavorable pattern and/or no specific winter storm threats.  Going over the latest data, the index appears to be correlating well.

 

The 0z GFS looks to turn cooler for a time around day 10, after which it's indicates temps near to above average.  The 0z Euro looks warmer around day 10.  Before that period, widespread highs in the 70s, prior to Christmas, look like a good bet, with widespread rain/storms.

 

The AO/NAO/PNA still look unfavorable, with a lean toward more favorable trajectories later on.  Looking at the modeling, none of those features seem to set up synoptically in a way that would be very beneficial to our region, unless you don't like cold and snow.

 

The CFS looks mostly warm with average precipitation for the next few weeks.

 

It's possible that we can sneak an event in with this pattern, but nothing really jumps out on the modeling (maybe the period right after Christmas...long shot?).  The models have been flipping a lot lately, which isn't surprising if a pattern change is indeed on the way.

 

For Bricker, at least the cold isn't 10 days away.  For Metallica, the cold appears much farther away than that.  For Catawbawilkes, moo.

[GaWx]

Cold Rain,

1) The Brickster prefers cold only when there's wintry precip. in most cases if I remember his posts correctly though he may like a chilly, dry Christmas.

2) I think doggy poo is more appealing than the 0Z Euro. It was so different from the prior run!

[Southern Track]

The 0z Canadian and GFS both indicate that trough swinging to the east after Christmas while the Euro has it's normal bias of holding energy back in the southwest, giving it a warmer look for us at the same time.

Euro could be right but I doubt it considering that bias.

[NCCatawba]

May have a little spillover eventually from this...esp. our GA posters.

 

 

...THE COLD FRONT WITH ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSS TN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS THE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVERE AREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSS ERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY.

[Brick Tamland]

 

Don had a post on the main page about the Decembers where BOS/NYC/PHL had over 8" of snow and how the rest of the winter looked after that for those areas, including DC.  Below are the years he found and I dug up the seasonal snowfall stats for RDU...

 

RDU seasonal snowfall

1896/97 - 9.3"

1904/05 - 9.2"

1909/10 - 0.7"

1916/17 - 1.2"

1932/33 - 10.0"

1945/46 - 10.3"

1960/61 - 3.8"

1963/64 - 3.5"

1966/67 - 10.6

2002/03 - 7.4"

2009/10 - 8"

2010/11 - 9"

 

AVG - 6.92"

 

50% had over 9"

67% had over 7"

83% had over 3.5"

 

 

Those are great odds. I would gladly see the average after the last two winters, and take a 50/50 shot at getting over 9 inches of snow.

[Brick Tamland]

Cold Rain,

1) The Brickster prefers cold only when there's wintry precip. in most cases if I remember his posts correctly though he may like a chilly, dry Christmas.

2) I think doggy poo is more appealing than the 0Z Euro. It was so different from the prior run!

 

 LOL, yes, either warm and sunny or snow. I hate rain anytime and I hate when it is cold enough for snow but dry.

[burgertime]

Anyone have any info on the Euro ENS from last night? Would be interested to see if it lined up more with the 12z runs.  Interestingly enough a few days ago the GFS had close to the same setup with some energy southwest and pushing east at 189 but after truncation it just vomited it due north.  Still not liking our odds for the latter half of December though. 

[Wow]

Anyone have any info on the Euro ENS from last night? Would be interested to see if it lined up more with the 12z runs.  Interestingly enough a few days ago the GFS had close to the same setup with some energy southwest and pushing east at 189 but after truncation it just vomited it due north.  Still not liking our odds for the latter half of December though. 

 

December is done as far as I am concerned for significant winter weather. Onward to January.

[downeastnc]

Gonna make a run at 80 here Sunday and be +20-30 both for highs and lows for 3-4 straight days so I suspect Dec will finish well above normal here. We are currently +2.6 for the month.

 

Hopefully we can get back into a better pattern by mid Jan it only takes one good storm to change this to a great winter for most of us. 

[Wow]

GFS looks good in the LR by the new year with the Aleutian low in place and .. a -NAO developing? Is that possible?

[burgertime]

GFS looks good in the LR by the new year with the Aleutian low in place and .. a -NAO developing? Is that possible?

 

The question is do we remember what one looks like?    One thing that has been missing just in the short range is a system that can ramp up head NE and really help breakup the current pattern.

[WxJordan]

While December is not looking to great for any types of wintry weather, we still have a lot of stuff to talk about for the remainder of the month that may help switch trends moving forward.

 

First off we have another storm system that will be moving across the United States this week. Many areas will see locally heavy rainfall. Severe weather will also be prevelant with this system. The greatest threat at the moment appears to be the very strong winds that will likely accompany the storm. An isolated tornado is possible; however, I believe strong gusty winds will be the largest threat. I break all these details down at my website if you would like more details, http://www.wxjordan.com/weather/forecast/238-another-weekend-storm-to-affect-area.

 

Then we have to look and see if we can get any sort of blocking. While looking at the models today, the GFS was trying to build up a ridge late in the period; however, it is 15 days away and the models will change a lot in that amount of time. It will still take some time to see how the storm over Europe evolves and it affects on the pattern; however, it is unclear still today how the storm may affect the pattern at the tail end of the month.

 

The indices still are unfavorable for a sustained cold outbreak in the southeast United States. The NAO remains positive, the AO remains positive, and the PNA is trending neutral. The NAO and AO do appear to be trying to move to a neutral state; however, they appear to remain positive.

 

So for the remainder of December, I see only a cold spell around Christmas before warming up. The next storm system will probably be around the end of December into early January.

 

For now, we wait and see if we can get the pattern change to occur. But as others have said above, it does not look good for at least the next ten days.

[SnowNiner]

December is done as far as I am concerned for significant winter weather. Onward to January.

 

Ha, usually when I see Wow posted I look forward to a postive cold/snow post more times than not.  Funny to see this one.  I agree, December is toast. 

 

However if we actually start to see the blocking shown in la la land, that's going to be nice.  Good ridging to the west (Aleutian low) and near greenland.  Would be a nice January I think if this general look materialized.  Verbatim I'm not sure the southern stream is active though.  Should we go ahead and start the January discussion thread?

 

[franklin NCwx]

I like the look of the 'GEFS from day 9 onward. nothing great to write home about but the AO and NAO look to go neutral. Heights stay low from the plains east. 

[mackerel_sky]

Ha, usually when I see Wow posted I look forward to a postive cold/snow post more times than not. Funny to see this one. I agree, December is toast.

However if we actually start to see the blocking shown in la la land, that's going to be nice. Good ridging to the west (Aleutian low) and near greenland. Would be a nice January I think if this general look materialized. Verbatim I'm not sure the southern stream is active though. Should we go ahead and start the January discussion thread?

Lets let Wilkes do that! It's about time for him to start it anyway. Let him bring the funk

[BullCityWx]

The MEX Mos is advertising some amazing warmth for Sunday. There's a good chance more than a couple locations break records for both record high minimum temperatures and record high temperatures. 

[NCSNOW]

The MEX Mos is advertising some amazing warmth for Sunday. There's a good chance more than a couple locations break records for both record high minimum temperatures and record high temperatures. 

Clouds will prevent this from happening (record highs). Minimums on the other hand are in play. I hate it because I wanted the saints outside away from their dome controlled atmosphere in the elements.

[griteater]

Once again, the PII (Posting Intensity Index) is the best barometer of what lies ahead, weather-wise.  The index is currently strongly negative, indicating high probabilities of an unfavorable pattern and/or no specific winter storm threats.  Going over the latest data, the index appears to be correlating well.

 

Your job is to get that bad boy posted on the CPC Teleconnections page.  My takeaway is that the AO & NAO have an inverse relationship with the PII.

 

GFS looks good in the LR by the new year with the Aleutian low in place and .. a -NAO developing? Is that possible?

 

The informed stratosphere posters that I follow here and elsewhere are favoring a hostile +AO for January, maybe even moreso than what we've seen in Dec...with a potential breakdown to neutral or negative in February.  This is one of those winters where we are going to need to see a modeled -AO/-NAO in close range in order to really believe it.

[superjames1992]

MOS typically needs to be corrected downward for daytime highs given cloud cover.

[packbacker]

Your job is to get that bad boy posted on the CPC Teleconnections page.  My takeaway is that the AO & NAO have an inverse relationship with the PII.

 

 

The informed stratosphere posters that I follow here and elsewhere are favoring a hostile +AO for January, maybe even moreso than what we've seen in Dec...with a potential breakdown to neutral or negative in February.  This is one of those winters where we are going to need to see a modeled -AO/-NAO in close range in order to really believe it.

Well that would be funny if we had a super positive AO in Jan, this board will become unbearable in Jan. CFS agrees with warm Jan :-)

[tnweathernut]

Your job is to get that bad boy posted on the CPC Teleconnections page.  My takeaway is that the AO & NAO have an inverse relationship with the PII.

 

 

The informed stratosphere posters that I follow here and elsewhere are favoring a hostile +AO for January, maybe even moreso than what we've seen in Dec...with a potential breakdown to neutral or negative in February.  This is one of those winters where we are going to need to see a modeled -AO/-NAO in close range in order to really believe it.

I don't think it can get much more hostile than +4 sd.........lol.  I will take my chances since it's in the future and is a true winter month, but can't say I disagree with them. 

[Jon]

I mean it could be worse, right?

 

"THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
DEEPEN A BIT, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING EAST-COAST STORM SYSTEMS AND SLIGHTLY 
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST 
AND IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTED ANOMALOUS ONSHORE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS LIMITS THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF 
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO."

 

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z 
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10.

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE 
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
AMONG THE TOOLS.

 

8 to 14 Day Analogs

Valid: December 26 2013 to January 01 2014
Updated: 18 Dec 2013

[griteater]

I mean it could be worse, right?

 

Yes

 

[UpStateCAD]

Regarding a pattern change and more specifically the all elusive neg NAO this year.  I found this post from earlier this fall by one that is near and dear to our hearts....(none other than DT).  Interesting to say the least and the case that is made is fairly compellling.  Any thoughts one how much weight we should put into it.  When I first saw it ealier in the year it really had me optimistic.  But now I am really starting to wonder.

 

http://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-alert-major-development-for-the-winter-of-2013-14-negative-nao-is-likely/595932400454022

[griteater]

Regarding a pattern change and more specifically the all elusive neg NAO this year.  I found this post from earlier this fall by one that is near and dear to our hearts....(none other than DT).  Interesting to say the least and the case that is made is fairly compellling.  Any thoughts one how much weight we should put into it.  When I first saw it ealier in the year it really had me optimistic.  But now I am really starting to wonder.

 

http://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-alert-major-development-for-the-winter-of-2013-14-negative-nao-is-likely/595932400454022

 

The Al Marinaro -NAO prediction doesn't look good right now, but winter is just beginning.  I recall seeing a tweet from him where he wasn't super confident about his prediction which I thought was odd given prior year correlation...can't find it now though.

[Tacoma]

Gonna make a run at 80 here Sunday and be +20-30 both for highs and lows for 3-4 straight days so I suspect Dec will finish well above normal here. We are currently +2.6 for the month.

 

Hopefully we can get back into a better pattern by mid Jan it only takes one good storm to change this to a great winter for most of us. 

Not mid January hopefully the beginning of Jan.  I want to see snow around Jan. 1st.  That would be great.   

[franklin NCwx]

Here is the latest ECMWF Ensemble run for Jan 2, 2014

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/eps_z500a_c_noram_61(3).png

that's the control.

[MichaelJ]

that's the control.

Yes it is the EPS Ensemble Control run