Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[BullCityWx]

Euro looks decent!

[Cold Rain]

What the heck is that thing entering the US at 240?

[Cold Rain]

^ Now, I'm sure that look will change somewhat, but that's not a bad setup right there. Plenty of cold air in Canada, with just your average, run of the mill 1056 high cascading into the US. This is definitely workable.

[JoMo]

That is what you get when you get ridging pushing into the Arctic. Some nice -10's and -20's surface temps under it.

[buckeyefan1]

Euro looks decent!

Yes it does  

[SnowNiner]

What the heck is that thing entering the US at 240?

 

Don't care, it shows blocking.  Just go with it.  It must be true.  Gift horse, mouth, don't look, etc. 

[tnweathernut]

It's quite the flip from previous runs, but I am very encouraged in it (and other modeling) consistently showing the ridging on the west coast and the semblance of split flow.  It would be nice to get a map like that to show within 5-6 days, but that is quite a turnaround by the Euro OP.  Will be interesting to see if the ensembles agree somewhat later today.

[superjames1992]

^ Now, I'm sure that look will change somewhat, but that's not a bad setup right there. Plenty of cold air in Canada, with just your average, run of the mill 1056 high cascading into the US. This is definitely workable.

[MichaelJ]

That 1056 high will end up being 1032 by the time it actually gets here. Euro is notorious for over amplyfying high pressure sliding down from Canada and also lows coming from the GOM. Besides, I don't have the skill scores right in front of me but the ECMWF has stunk so far compared to normal. Beleive it or not, the JMA has been kicking it's tail like a rented mule foir anything past 10 days

[Shawn]

That 1056 high will end up being 1032 by the time it actually gets here. Euro is notorious for over amplyfying high pressure sliding down from Canada and also lows coming from the GOM. Besides, I don't have the skill scores right in front of me but the ECMWF has stunk so far compared to normal. Beleive it or not, the JMA has been kicking it's tail like a rented mule foir anything past 10 days

 

JMA isn't too bad of a model for overall pattern looks from my views of it.  The Euro seems like it's turning into the "over amped candy land" type model to boost subsriber numbers lately.

[FLweather]

That 1056 high will end up being 1032 by the time it actually gets here. Euro is notorious for over amplyfying high pressure sliding down from Canada and also lows coming from the GOM. Besides, I don't have the skill scores right in front of me but the ECMWF has stunk so far compared to normal. Beleive it or not, the JMA has been kicking it's tail like a rented mule foir anything past 10 days

 

 

Wxsouth mentioned a couple days ago that if the flow aloft setup just right there maybe highs as strong as 1060mb. Even though rare its plausible... considering there has been 1045+ and a 1052mb  so far.

[GaWx]

_{Fwiw, all of the 12Z main models looked colder for much of the northern US for late month...could be a good sign...who knows?}

[NCCatawba]

Wxsouth mentioned a couple days ago that if the flow aloft setup just right there maybe highs as strong as 1060mb. Even though rare its plausible... considering there has been 1045+ and a 1052mb  so far.

 

The gfs showed it a couple days ago when he mentioned it. I remember posting it here. The intense high on the euro may not be out to lunch per say...

 

--

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi3h

Christmas through New Years doesnt exactly look warm pic.twitter.com/UkE5IAq5hI

[Brick Tamland]

Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook.

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=684433688256036&set=a.314215925277816.80969.257967984235944&type=1&theater

 

COULD it Snow on Christmas Day? Well we know it can and has and I am still watching a sneaking peace of energy that appears to be left behind on the old frontal boundary on December 23...You can see from the picture posted that things MAY get interesting if this trend continues and what IS significant is that all the weather models show this piece of energy becoming a small low pressure area and staying weak which is key because if it gets too strong this will advect in warm...er air at the mid levels and it will be another cold rain...However if this system stays weak and the system moves about 25-35 miles further west we could see some snow showers on Christmas evening and night...This is NOT my forecast and just a possibility of what COULD happen if all things come together but I do have a gut feeling about this one and have for the past two weeks when it showed up on the weather models then dissappeared and now is back...We shall see.

 

[SnowNiner]

Please no more CAD "events" I can't take it.    It's worse than the torch/no torch discussion.  With no blocking to keep the "CAD" in place it's not going to be strong enough, it never is.  Even if it is, it's probably sleet/freezing rain because the "cold air" is too shallow for anything else, no snow. 

 

Let's just hope the blocking in the long range shows up, the west coast ridge and split flow shows up, and then it's game on.  Until then.....

[MichaelJ]

Wxsouth mentioned a couple days ago that if the flow aloft setup just right there maybe highs as strong as 1060mb. Even though rare its plausible... considering there has been 1045+ and a 1052mb  so far.

I agree it is possible but my point was merely the Euro has a bias for the pressure to be higher than it verifies at, once it actually gets here. I would think this is just an example of that bias and would look for a substantial correction downward with time. Still would be a potent HP with a 1036-40mb reading and would direct some really cold air into it's path downstream, wherever that turns out to be.

[NCCatawba]

Please no more CAD "events" I can't take it. 

 

I'm not too impressed with what Brick posted either.

 

The current pattern supports 32 degree marginable wintery precip (freezing rain as of late) after 70 degree weather. We have seen this before and the current pattern continues. It may become more interesting in the days to come but overall not perform all that well the day it occurs...because of the torch that precedes and more. Cold rain with underperforming ice or snow south of VA. 

[Isopycnic]

I'm not too impressed with what Brick posted either.

 

The current pattern supports 32 degree marginable wintery precip (freezing rain as of late) after 70 degree weather. We have seen this before and the current pattern continues. It may become more interesting in the days to come but overall not perform all that well the day it occurs...because of the torch that precedes and more. Cold rain with underperforming ice or snow south of VA. 

 

This will be my last post until until 18 December 2013 - 04:06 PM since I am 5 posted.

THIS:

Move North if you want cold.

[IWC]

_{Fwiw, all of the 12Z main models looked colder for much of the northern for late month...could be a good sign...who knows?}

Can you type a lil smaller,then I won't be able to see it at all. I'll just think the screen is blank...

[jburns]

Can you type a lil smaller,then I won't be able to see it at all. I'll just think the screen is blank...

 

Sure can.

[pcbjr]

^

[NCSNOW]

 

Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook.

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=684433688256036&set=a.314215925277816.80969.257967984235944&type=1&theater

 

COULD it Snow on Christmas Day? Well we know it can and has and I am still watching a sneaking peace of energy that appears to be left behind on the old frontal boundary on December 23...You can see from the picture posted that things MAY get interesting if this trend continues and what IS significant is that all the weather models show this piece of energy becoming a small low pressure area and staying weak which is key because if it gets too strong this will advect in warm...er air at the mid levels and it will be another cold rain...However if this system stays weak and the system moves about 25-35 miles further west we could see some snow showers on Christmas evening and night...This is NOT my forecast and just a possibility of what COULD happen if all things come together but I do have a gut feeling about this one and have for the past two weeks when it showed up on the weather models then dissappeared and now is back...We shall see.

 

 

Actually you would be better served for that low to close off and ramp up going neg tilt in that location. It would make and pull it's on cold air down on the NW side. As it stands in that depiction it's just stale leftover  insitu cad with overruning moisture that couldn't sustain itself at the surface, that is if the qpf where another 100 miles west.

[pcbjr]

Thanks to griteater's thread on wind maps in this forum, here's a graphic representation of why we really need some sort of block to develop (and then hang tough and tight for a while):

 

 

[packbacker]

18z GFS OP run was the first run that showed blocking, granted it was day 14/15 but it's a start.  The GEFS wasn't as good but had hints towards the end of the run.

 

 

[packbacker]

Don had a post on the main page about the Decembers where BOS/NYC/PHL had over 8" of snow and how the rest of the winter looked after that for those areas, including DC.  Below are the years he found and I dug up the seasonal snowfall stats for RDU...

 

RDU seasonal snowfall

1896/97 - 9.3"

1904/05 - 9.2"

1909/10 - 0.7"

1916/17 - 1.2"

1932/33 - 10.0"

1945/46 - 10.3"

1960/61 - 3.8"

1963/64 - 3.5"

1966/67 - 10.6

2002/03 - 7.4"

2009/10 - 8"

2010/11 - 9"

 

AVG - 6.92"

 

50% had over 9"

67% had over 7"

83% had over 3.5"

[Southern Track]

Don had a post on the main page about the Decembers where BOS/NYC/PHL had over 8" of snow and how the rest of the winter looked after that for those areas, including DC. Below are the years he found and I dug up the seasonal snowfall stats for RDU...

RDU seasonal snowfall

1896/97 - 9.3"

1904/05 - 9.2"

1909/10 - 0.7"

1916/17 - 1.2"

1932/33 - 10.0"

1945/46 - 10.3"

1960/61 - 3.8"

1963/64 - 3.5"

1966/67 - 10.6

2002/03 - 7.4"

2009/10 - 8"

2010/11 - 9"

AVG - 6.92"

50% had over 9"

67% had over 7"

83% had over 3.5"

That's pretty healthy. What is the yearly average for RDU?

[packbacker]

That's pretty healthy. What is the yearly average for RDU?

 

30 yr avg is about 6", 50 yr avg is about 7".

[Poimen]

 

Don had a post on the main page about the Decembers where BOS/NYC/PHL had over 8" of snow and how the rest of the winter looked after that for those areas, including DC.  Below are the years he found and I dug up the seasonal snowfall stats for RDU...

 

RDU seasonal snowfall

1896/97 - 9.3"

1904/05 - 9.2"

1909/10 - 0.7"

1916/17 - 1.2"

1932/33 - 10.0"

1945/46 - 10.3"

1960/61 - 3.8"

1963/64 - 3.5"

1966/67 - 10.6

2002/03 - 7.4"

2009/10 - 8"

2010/11 - 9"

 

AVG - 6.92"

 

50% had over 9"

67% had over 7"

83% had over 3.5"

 

Great work. I'd be happy if we hit the average.

[FLweather]

 

Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook.

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=684433688256036&set=a.314215925277816.80969.257967984235944&type=1&theater

 

COULD it Snow on Christmas Day? Well we know it can and has and I am still watching a sneaking peace of energy that appears to be left behind on the old frontal boundary on December 23...You can see from the picture posted that things MAY get interesting if this trend continues and what IS significant is that all the weather models show this piece of energy becoming a small low pressure area and staying weak which is key because if it gets too strong this will advect in warm...er air at the mid levels and it will be another cold rain...However if this system stays weak and the system moves about 25-35 miles further west we could see some snow showers on Christmas evening and night...This is NOT my forecast and just a possibility of what COULD happen if all things come together but I do have a gut feeling about this one and have for the past two weeks when it showed up on the weather models then dissappeared and now is back...We shall see.

 

 

I've noticed that even with goofus. There is some issues to be worked out as far as thermal profiles and timing on the models  but looking at the general longwave flow, would be supportive of progressive 2-3 low solution.

 

Please no more CAD "events" I can't take it.    It's worse than the torch/no torch discussion.  With no blocking to keep the "CAD" in place it's not going to be strong enough, it never is.  Even if it is, it's probably sleet/freezing rain because the "cold air" is too shallow for anything else, no snow. 

 

Let's just hope the blocking in the long range shows up, the west coast ridge and split flow shows up, and then it's game on.  Until then.....

Typical winter time weather... alot better than the last couple but still not as great as other years.

[GaWx]

The Good Doctor is not being a good doc tonight. This is still another run with massive differences vs. the prior run. Ugly looking in days 7-10 imo if you want a cold pattern like the 12Z Euro had been suggesting. It also shows another overdone sfc high in the NE US then, a Euro bias.